This is a discussion on Situation within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; If I'm on BB with 30 blinds, the SB Shova 10 blinds. How do I mathematically analyze this situation? Should I call K9s? Why is
Yes, you should call with K9s, SB should be shoving very wide in this situation.
17th March 2018, 11:11 PM
re: Poker & Situation
You can run a program for this, that will tell you the range of a random opponent in this situation is roughly this..... and your hand K9s has a good probability to be ahead of that range. Now if it is close to the bubble and you are playing to make it to the money will you be ok if you lose?
18th March 2018, 3:43 AM
Online Poker at: ACR
You can calculate that with breakeven percentage to see if its a good call or not (but you need to do it off table to get an idea of how similar situations would work out). Here's how it works
Breakeven % = risk/(risk + current pot), where risk is the bet you have to make. Basically this tells us how often your hand has to win to breakeven. For your example, we can walk through it like this:
The pot before the shove lets say was 1.5 BB (1BB from the BB and 0.5 from the SB) and then the SB shoved 10 BB into that pot making the current pot 11.5BB. If you called that bet you would but in an additional 10 BB so the formula works out like this 10/(10+11.5). That comes out to be about 46% which means that the hand has to win at least 46% of the time in order for this to be a profitable call.
So the next step is to play around with this on equilab and we see that vs. a fairly wide SB range K9s has an equity of 55.2% meaning that it is over the breakeven percentage and we would expect to win the hand and this is a fairly decent call. So calling is the best play here.