Single-table SNG winning finish distribution

Assume you are a typical winning SNG player (I say this seeing as 99% of you seem to be sensible and play cash now lole). Out of the three possible ITM positions, should a typical winning player have more 3rds than 2nds or 1sts, more 2nds than 3rds or 1sts, or more 1sts than 2nds or 3rds? Explain!

A typical winning player I think would have more 2nds>1sts>3rds.

There's a lot of short term variance heads up, and with big blinds and small stacks it's a lot easier to be on the short end, where as I think solid short stack play is enough to help you squeeze out more 1sts/2nds than 3rds

lol sitandgos.

Its been a loong time since I played them, but surely the vast majority of your placings should be first's and third's.

Sweet, two responses and one is the polar opposite of the other.

1st and 3rd should be the majority. You want to survive to make it into the money first of all. Then play aggressively and take more risks once your in the money to get 1st since the prize money is heavily weighted towards 1st place.

Assuming a 50/30/20 payout, 1st>3rd>2nd. 1st and 3rd for the reason of added incremental value as already stated. 1st>3rd is my opinion for lower stakes only (I haven't played high stakes SnG's) due to being able to wait out the maniacs, then picking on the nits that are trying not to bubble out.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

Sweet, two responses and one is the polar opposite of the other.

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I've been gone a year, dammit!! :joyman:

The ratio of your 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes isn't really what's important. What's important is your return on investment, whether you get it from a few wins or a lot of thirds.

I would agree with 3, 1, 2
Also keep in mind if you place 3rd or 4th a lot, it might be worth reading up on how to improve your game when there is less players on the table
and if you place 2nd quite often you should practice your heads up game more

FreezerJumps said:

The ratio of your 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes isn't really what's important. What's important is your return on investment, whether you get it from a few wins or a lot of thirds.

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Yeah I know this, I'm just curious as to what people think a winning player's distribution of ITM finishes would look like in the long run.

I have won a little cash from sngs and for a long time I would just about cash and would have many third places. Recently I find myself getting more first and seconds but my roi is only 8% so I am not setting the world on fire. I guess playing fewer tables makes it easier to get 1st or second and I only play two at a time now.

Personally I would rather get a combonation of first and seconds and sometimes it works out that way, playing on stars I usally score 250 - 300 leaderboard points for a block of 20 games. On a good run will be 400+ points when I hit the 400 plus points its more a combonation off 1st and 2nds.

Dorkus there is a micro sng thread going (dying on its arse) I would be intrested in a post in it bout what games you play how you do etc if you have the time.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

Assume you are a typical winning SNG player (I say this seeing as 99% of you seem to be sensible and play cash now lole). Out of the three possible ITM positions, should a typical winning player have more 3rds than 2nds or 1sts, more 2nds than 3rds or 1sts, or more 1sts than 2nds or 3rds? Explain!

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I played tons of $5.50 sngs (well over 10,000) and I cashed 42% of sngs played.there was very little statistical differance in 1st,2nd and 3rd place finishes.My percentages where generally between 31% to 36% (of cashes) in each catagory of (1st,2nd,3rd),when my sample size was over 500 cashes. Which category had the highest percentage would vary from month to month.
I think a part of this result is that by the time I cashed there was pressure from the blinds to play,often push or fold.I have a very aggressive approach when 3 handed.I would say that if someone has to many 3rds then they likely are not aggressive enough.




Snow

I play poker daily and it's usually SNGs. However, I'm not a grinder and my volume is maybe a max of 20 per week depending on my work schedule.

I think there are really two mindsets at work. There are those who multi-table pretty effectively and are concerned only with the overall ROI. Then there are guys like me who play relatively small numbers of games and tend to be more selective in their approach to the money.

For me, I find it of very little use to finish third and my numbers reflect that. When I money, it's 1st or 2nd probably 80% of the time. I did recently break out my 1sts vs 2nds and my ratio there was 55% 2nd, 45% 1st (that may have changed a bit as I've recently done well HU.)

Averaging just 2 per day or so, money considerations are a big factor and it's pretty much impossible to finish first or second when you have less than a thousand chips while your opponents have the rest (barring some really good luck.) So, I tend to bust quite often in 4th or 5th because I'm trying to seriously chip up on the bubble in order to make a good run.

One first pays for 4 entries...a second for 2 1/2 and a third doesn't even double your cost. Grinders are happy to take the 3rd and move on...recreational players should be aiming higher, imo.

I tend to play S&G's on 6 with 6 players rather than 9 so they pay out the top 2. Even though the payouts are smaller i think the odds of getting a payout are slightly better. I only play play $1 and $2 buy in's but 7 out of 1o times i'd get payed back...

Probably selective memory but I feel like I get more 1st than 2nd and 3rd combined (far too many 4ths and 5ths tho). I turn on the aggression in a big way when the field is down to 5.

Is there a sharkscope/OPR type database out there to check this?

i'm pretty sure paid sharkscope accounts can filter results by finishing position.

I'm pretty sure that if you go and do some ICM calcs for calls in 3rd place vs the bubble, you should be opening up your range substantially because of the weight that the 1st place money holds, + you have a factor of zero vs $$ for a call. Dunno 100% though, im sure if you download an ICM calc and work some hands into pokerstove, hands like AQ vs a push which would be a fold on the bubble become a trivial call once ITM. I'd have to sit down and go through all the math on it though, and tbh I better off spending my time looking at leaks in my cash games.

Yeah, absolutely. I think that's offset a little by the fact that other people's ranges will widen when ITM (and hence you'd have to give them wider ranges in ICM calcs), but we should still be calling/shoving wider ITM, and that would tend to increase 1sts/3rds and cut the number of 2nds a little.

I haven't played SNGs for a very long time, but here is my finish distribution for the $5.5 i played. 39% itm, 20% roi.

And here's the distribution for the $20+2 and $22+2 (turbo) level. 38% itm, 9% roi.

I haven't used HEM long enough to get representative figures of my finishing position, but I play $22 SnG's on Full Tilt, and have an ROI of 10% across 189 games (only been playing regularly since exams finished a month ago). My cash stats look like this

1st ($90): 29
2nd ($54): 26
3rd ($36): 14

While not a massive sample, it is very reflective of my approach, and I think helps me to profit, my reasoning being, with the rake, finishing 3rd, earning $36 for a $22 buy in is not really a great ROI in the long run if you aim solely to cash, it will hamper your chances of 1st and 2nd place finishes, imo -ve over time.

I play like a nit most of the time, obviously dependant on table until it goes 5 handed, at this stage, my VPIP very often is < 10%. I now open up, and when it goes 4 handed, even though I often have the lowest stack, the players that have played loose and grinded/lucked their stacks at the lower level blinds now tighten up into nits themselves, and I use my tight image and any lucky cards I run into to steal several blinds, and I happily take a flip, I get very good fold equity on the bubble against most players, I will fold to a shove depending on the player, but I'd rather take a flip and get into a chip lead, where I can then persue heads up, I think if you scrape through into 3rd place with the lowest stack, it is very difficult to get into heads up. I don't particularly mind busting on the bubble, if where the times I win I am guaranteed a shot at the $90 1st prize. I only use OPR, if there are any scopers that can find out how many times I finish 4th, I'd be interested to find out!

Then Heads Up is another different battle completely, even at $22 SnG level, many players are clueless heads up, so even if I enter a dog, I'm confident enough in my tournament HU play to take a shot at the win, and I find you are more likely to win a HU going in with the lowest stack, than you are to jump from 3rd to 2nd. So my main strategy is to get through the first few levels unscathed, playing premium hands only, then loosen up and aim to get Heads Up, not to cash, I believe 3rd place is a phantom bubble

I agree with richyl. Your first goal is to do what ever you have to do to make the money. Then you can take chances. Most of my finishes were 1st or 3rds

Can any of you help with advice for those of us that are just trying to build our cash to play higher limit games. Show our concern be to finish in the moneyor will we build our cash faster by playing hiher limit games and taking greater risks.

tenbob said:

surely the vast majority of your placings should be first's and third's.

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Richyl2008 said:

1st and 3rd should be the majority. You want to survive to make it into the money first of all. Then play aggressively and take more risks once your in the money to get 1st since the prize money is heavily weighted towards 1st place.

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I concur.

You're all wroooongg!!

Well you're not, but you are in the sense that I believe it's this general consensus that allows my strategy to work well