Shoving once ITM

So last night I made my first ever final table in a .50 + .05 MTT (I’ve been strictly a cash player up until now). The payouts were something like .88, 1.10, 1.60, etc to 4.32, and finally 6.50. When we got to the final table, I had around 75,000 chips out of 1.3 million. There were five players under 100k chips, including two under 30k.

My question is this - I didn’t catch anything decent for seven or so hands, during which time one of the small stacks shoved and was knocked out. Then I got KJs from midposition, shoved, and was called by QQ by the button. I realize this is kind of a bad beat, but I’m curious if it would’ve been smarter to fold that and strictly try to increase my payout. On the next hand, two people shoved and were both knocked out.

I spent a lot of time researching MTTs before playing, and I kept hearing “try to win, don’t try to get in the money.” So this move made sense to me. But I was also massively far behind the chip leader (~400k) and a few people were about to blind out (7500/15000 with 1000 ante).

If anyone can break this down in ICM for me, I’d appreciate it as I don’t have a great understanding of this concept yet.

15000big bl so u had 4.8bb jam anyway u couldt do nothing, thats not about your skill

I go the other way short stacked at the final table where every position sees a pay bump. Wait for the good hand and let the others bust out first.

The thought about play to win is when you are in 45th position and the 1.57 your at ITM will jump to 1.74 if 9 more go out and you get to the final four tables.

MrTerek said:

15000big bl so u had 4.8bb jam anyway u couldt do nothing, thats not about your skill

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Yeah this is how I feel. I think I steal a 30k pot a lot of the time, and people have my range pretty wide and I think KJs is towards the higher end of that. Doubling up here suddenly has me in contention and definitely looking at top 5

rmcneice said:

I go the other way short stacked at the final table where every position sees a pay bump. Wait for the good hand and let the others bust out first.

The thought about play to win is when you are in 45th position and the 1.57 your at ITM will jump to 1.74 if 9 more go out and you get to the final four tables.

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Right I’m pretty sure I can fold my way to 6th, which is double the money of 8th.

I’m just not sure how to calculate which play is better. Maybe it’s a coin flip

nml said:

Right I’m pretty sure I can fold my way to 6th, which is double the money of 8th.

I’m just not sure how to calculate which play is better. Maybe it’s a coin flip

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If you can get up to first, get up to first(The money up there is MUCH larger. In other words, play really safe (Even though you are in push fold territory). Try to wait for high tier hands/hands that are 60-70% equity heads up while everyone else is shoving(unless you are < 5 BB, you get a hand you should play it before it's too late).

So here’s what I’ve come up with for using ICM to figure it out

Based on what I remember, my stack is worth $2.50. If I double up, it’s worth $3.40. So hitting the hand when called is worth .90. If it’s folded, it’s worth .35

I’ve got 44% equity vs the range I think I’d get called vs 52% for the villain. His range is 25% (this may be too tight, but then my equity goes up if he’s loose)

So the math here

(-1.40 x .52 x .25) + (.35 x .75) + (.9 x .44 x .25) = .18

So that’s if I’m called and bust, if it folds around, and if I’m called and win

There's nothing wrong, IMO, with going all-in for 5BB with two broadway cards. You don't know that your opponent has QQ and you don't know that 2 other players will be knocked out in the very next hand.

Given all the information you had at the time, it was a good move.

you want to play to win, sitting to get deep will not make you a good player, a 3x bet with a potential call could let you see the flop, if the QQ goes all in you have a choice whether to call or fold and potentially go deeper,

Those who are afraid rarely go deep.

The other factor to consider especially at the low buyins is the "implosion factor" what this means is that other players may make an icm mistake and you will be able to move up in the money...with 2 players under 30k maybe its worth it to wait for a better spot, but with a K and 5 bbs a shove cannot be terrible.

It's a tough spot for sure. I would say you got it in good, but for me personally if there are shorter stacks I'd be looking to ladder.

I guess the same message, but with slightly different (less calculation) reasoning.
You have <5bb (I don't know your position) with KJs.
KJs is top 8% of cards, meaning: on average wait 12 hands to get similar cards. This means you are as good as dead due to the blinds, unless you shove.
Free after the MIT course on youtube.

That math and reasoning intrigues me. Time to do a little research.

I think you were just unfortunate to run into QQ . If not for that your play might have worked and the game would've been completelydifferent . You need to pick a spot and go with it . Better luck next time .

Won the next .50 on demand that I did so I’d say I got it

Good work. How much was first?

i have a bit of an alternate viewpoint...do what you regret the least. if you'd rather close that table and focus on your others or start new ones and just blind off the last 10 hands go for it, if you want to go all in with any 2, go for it, or if you want to wait on a certain hand.....any of it is fine with 5bb it's not about skill anymore like someone said, you're relying on luck so your best bet is do whatever it takes not to tilt youself haha

Pablo22 said:

Good work. How much was first?

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7.15

I’ve actually been doing quite well in these, I’ve done 12 and been in the money 7 times. About a 300% rate of return right now (which I realize isn’t sustainable but still exciting)

Thanks for the kind words!

formertroll said:

i have a bit of an alternate viewpoint...do what you regret the least. if you'd rather close that table and focus on your others or start new ones and just blind off the last 10 hands go for it, if you want to go all in with any 2, go for it, or if you want to wait on a certain hand.....any of it is fine with 5bb it's not about skill anymore like someone said, you're relying on luck so your best bet is do whatever it takes not to tilt youself haha

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Bad beats don’t really get to me. I get much more frustrated when I play too nitty and then see a flop where I would’ve been paid off.

So, with what you said, I made the right move

If I'm under 10bb I'll look for an A10 - AK or better on final table. Especially if there are other small stacks on board!

You mentioned stack sizes right away, but I had to read through your whole post to finally find out the most relevant piece of information- "how big are the BLINDS relative to stack sizes?"

Then the answer became obvious:

You only had 5 bb!

You should be shoving any decent hand any time you're the first raiser. KJ is solid gold when you only have 5 bb.

BTW, this is known as a "cooler", not a bad beat. A bad beat would be you losing with KJ to K-10 or Q-J, J-10 etc. You were behind QQ so it's not a bad beat.

A cooler is when you make the right play (which you did by shoving KJ) but are up against a better hand. No regrets in a cooler. All you can do is make the right play. What would have been worse (bad play) is for you to keep folding and get blinded out.

Good to know, thanks.

nml said:

Then I got KJs from midposition, shoved, and was called by QQ by the button. I realize this is kind of a bad beat,

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LoL, KJ vs QQ is not a bad beat, its you shoving from middle position with a marginal hand and getting crushed.

Yeah ICM ITM IMO LMAO, when you sit there at the final table, maybe see that some ppl win pots with mediocre hands, because they just don't care or have won enough, makes it hard to fold KJ. At some point you have to shove your chips into the middle, I do that most of the time with any of the 80 best hands. What has to happen will happen anyway. And there's not much time to wait. So KJ is a clear all-in without thinking, even if the next jump would double my money. If you win that pot, a complete new story begins....nice move