Originally Posted by dudu10grande
Shoving AK and QJ
shoving QJ? really?
Originally Posted by atlantafalcons0
Want to win? Shove! Want to cash and probably not win? Time out and fold.
Of course I want to win, but is shoving 88 there the best play when someone is virtually all in and likely to bubble? If I shove I'm looking at 3 different outcomes:
-I shove, everyone folds and I pick up ~2K chips, leaving me still around 8th place and ITM. This is an $11 MTT, 19th pays $24. I'm +$13. [decent scenario].
-I shove, get called, and win. I now have a 16K stack, not great but much better, and am ITM. +$13 [best scenario]
-I shove, get called, and lose. Out of MTT and did not cash. -$24 [worst scenario]. I say I'm -$24 because I was guaranteed a cash against someone who only had an ante left. I'm risking $24 to win $14. Yes, one can argue what I'm risking to win a lot more if I finish higher, but we can't guarantee that I'll finish any higher if the shove went in my favor. So, I'm only thinking about what I'm guaranteed to win/lose at the moment.
88 is such a weird hand, too. I'm hoping that anyone who calls has a smaller pair, but there are so many hand combinations that someone might call with that puts me in a scary race situation or have me dominated. J10s+, Q10s+, K10s+, A10s+, 99+
Another factor is the severe short stack. If the bottom stacks 20th-17th had ~3K stacks each, I'd have no problem shoving here because the bubble probably isn't going to burst any time soon and they were probably waiting it out. I'd take that chance, but against someone who is just an ante away from busting...it's a lot of risk.