So here's what happened...
With 20 players left, we were split into 2 tables of 10. I didn't have much specific information on the players at my table of 10, but based on the way the tournament had gone, the play was generally tight, very few opening callers, lots of folds after a standard opening raise of 2.5-3.5x BB. I have 11 BBs, chip leader has 35 BBs, average stack size is ~20 BBs. Top 10 make final table and are in the money.
First hand dealt -- I am UTG+2. Chip leader is in BB. There are 2 other large stacks to my left (UTG+3 and CO) along with the shortest stack remaining on the button. UTG and UTG+1 fold. I have AQo. I was a little uncomfortable with this having 7 players to act behind me, but I'm running behind and figure . I open with a raise of 5 BBs. All fold to BB, who puts me all in without hesitating. I call and pray to not see AA, KK, or AK. He turns over KQo. My hand holds up and I double up.
I make it to final table. Here's how it ended.
5 players left. Blinds are 4K and 8K. I have 125K. Chip leader is directly to my left with ~210K. The 3 other players have ~190K, ~130K, and ~100K. Chip leader has played somewhat loose-aggressive but I've also seen him fold twice pre-flop at the final table after being re-raised----I've seen him call an all-in 4 BB shove when he was in BB with 86o heads up and I've seen him reraise a UTG 2x BB raise and then call a reraise with 77 (he then flopped a set and won that hand). I think you have to put him on a wide range of possible hands when he raises. I am UTG with AKo. I raise to 24K. He reraises me to 74K. All others fold to me. So there is 110K in the pot, it's 50K to call and my remaining stack is now 101K. It's obviously possible he has AA or KK, but the way he has played and the range of possible hands tells
me to assign that a small chance. If he has QQ-66, I'm something like an average 44/56 dog. If he has AKs, he's a slight favorite. AKo we're obviously tied. AQ-AT or KQ-KJ I'm a big favorite---and I think those hands are possible with him. I thought calling was out of the question at this point. If I shove, small chance he folds but he most likely calls the additional 51K if he's thinking at all about pot odds
I shove all-in. He calls and flips over 88. I lose and finish 5th.
Interested in others' thoughts.