Set of 9s

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wilTurkey56

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Hero, villain 1 and villain 2 all have 40k, blinds 600/1200/100

Hero otb, raises to 3k. Call, call

Flop q95, 2 clubs

Check, check, hero bets 3k. Villain 1 raises to 7, villain 2 calls, hero raises all in (nice pot to take down right there)

Villain 1 folds, v2 calls with flush draw. 5,3 clubs. Turn is a club

My analysis: hero should have raised more pre, but apart from that I like the all in bet. However, if hero just calls and sees 3rd club, that's a cooler, so maybe a call or small raise there

Villain may have an argument for calling but still a dog

What are thoughts? Player info was minimal as never played with v2, but don't think it changes much in this example
 
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wilTurkey56

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43 views? 😄😄 0 replies 😒
 
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ph_il

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Bet more on the flop.

Other than, it looks pretty standard. Just unlucky.
 
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Edson

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Agree. Bet 3/4 pot size on the flop and maybe he would fold his draw

He call preflop 53s aganist 2 opponents? I hope he was on BB :p
 
edc1

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sometimes villian wont fold flush draw no matter how much you bet-this might be one of those times-very doubtful youll get villian to fold here-just got unlucky with your set of nines
 
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wilTurkey56

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Agree. Bet 3/4 pot size on the flop and maybe he would fold his draw

He call preflop 53s aganist 2 opponents? I hope he was on BB :p


I was all in on the flop 😄
 
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wilTurkey56

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Do I not want to build and tempt people in with a set?
 
bellybuster7

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You played against Fish, and you're out of luck
 
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dejan85

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he should raise on flop,but you play write....
 
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el Jefe

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Set of 9's

Your bet sizing wasn't great. You allowed the villain to play correctly.

Let's review.... I assume it was a full table. This means that the pot would be 10K before the flop.

The villain is on a flush draw and his odds of catching a flush are 16% on turn and another 16% on river (32% if all in on flop).

Lets ignore the other player for now. I'll get back to him. You bet 3000, which means that anyone calling that raise only needs hit 18% of the time on the turn to break even. Since he's 16% to hit that is really close. Add in the implied odds of him getting to bet a little on the river and he has enough to draw.

When you push later, you put another 33k into a pot that is 31k. You have no more money, so the villain doesn't have to worry about another bet. This time he needs to win 34% of the time to break even and he'll get there 32%.

You never gave him a good reason to fold.

Had you bet 7K on the flop, he'd have to catch 29% of the time on the turn and he'd only get there 16%. And you'd be able deny him odds again on the river.

As for the other player, it seems that he saw your bet as weak so he made a play. This is why he folded getting good odds later. Had you bet 7k from the start he probably would have folded.

The villain may have been a donk but maybe he realized that you give good odds post flop and that made him willing to call your raise in the first place.

Either way, don't worry about whether he's a donk or not, focus on what you did to make this happen. You need to force people to make mistakes. You didn't do that here.
 
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ph_il

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Your bet sizing wasn't great. You allowed the villain to play correctly.

Let's review.... I assume it was a full table. This means that the pot would be 10K before the flop.

The villain is on a flush draw and his odds of catching a flush are 16% on turn and another 16% on river (32% if all in on flop).

Lets ignore the other player for now. I'll get back to him. You bet 3000, which means that anyone calling that raise only needs hit 18% of the time on the turn to break even. Since he's 16% to hit that is really close. Add in the implied odds of him getting to bet a little on the river and he has enough to draw.

When you push later, you put another 33k into a pot that is 31k. You have no more money, so the villain doesn't have to worry about another bet. This time he needs to win 34% of the time to break even and he'll get there 32%.

You never gave him a good reason to fold.

Had you bet 7K on the flop, he'd have to catch 29% of the time on the turn and he'd only get there 16%. And you'd be able deny him odds again on the river.

As for the other player, it seems that he saw your bet as weak so he made a play. This is why he folded getting good odds later. Had you bet 7k from the start he probably would have folded.

The villain may have been a donk but maybe he realized that you give good odds post flop and that made him willing to call your raise in the first place.

Either way, don't worry about whether he's a donk or not, focus on what you did to make this happen. You need to force people to make mistakes. You didn't do that here.
Great breakdown and analysis of the hand.

I look forward to seeing more posts like this from you.
 
VinnyStrat

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Do I not want to build and tempt people in with a set?

3 out of 4 times you will take down the pot with that strategy. This was the other time. In tournament poker, this strategy will get you knocked out 25% of the time.

Villain did what you hoped with your small bet indicating you were week, he re-raised. To last in a tournament, the better play here is a larger but not crushing bet on the flop to take down the pot then. If you get called and the 3rd club hits you are in a position to give up the hand and live to the next opportunity.
 
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wilTurkey56

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Your bet sizing wasn't great. You allowed the villain to play correctly.



Let's review.... I assume it was a full table. This means that the pot would be 10K before the flop.



The villain is on a flush draw and his odds of catching a flush are 16% on turn and another 16% on river (32% if all in on flop).



Lets ignore the other player for now. I'll get back to him. You bet 3000, which means that anyone calling that raise only needs hit 18% of the time on the turn to break even. Since he's 16% to hit that is really close. Add in the implied odds of him getting to bet a little on the river and he has enough to draw.



When you push later, you put another 33k into a pot that is 31k. You have no more money, so the villain doesn't have to worry about another bet. This time he needs to win 34% of the time to break even and he'll get there 32%.



You never gave him a good reason to fold.



Had you bet 7K on the flop, he'd have to catch 29% of the time on the turn and he'd only get there 16%. And you'd be able deny him odds again on the river.



As for the other player, it seems that he saw your bet as weak so he made a play. This is why he folded getting good odds later. Had you bet 7k from the start he probably would have folded.



The villain may have been a donk but maybe he realized that you give good odds post flop and that made him willing to call your raise in the first place.



Either way, don't worry about whether he's a donk or not, focus on what you did to make this happen. You need to force people to make mistakes. You didn't do that here.


Great response, thanks for your breakdown.

Are you part of any groups outside of card chat as I'd be interested in seeing more of your analysis?
 
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