On the topic of sample size. Here is something I posted on another (weak) forum.
Ever had a bad streak where it seemed like you couldn't win anything at all? Want to know the best thing to get over that bad streak? Play more. Yup, put in more volume of hands at the cash tables or fire up more SNG games and keep on playing.
If you're on a losing streak, this may seem like the opposite thing you'd want to do but it's actually not because the more games/hands you put in, the more accurate the reading as far as ROI% and profits go.
Here is a simple example of the drastic changes that can occur with small sample sizes and big sample sizes.
Lets say you play 100 $2 HU SNGs and you win 70% of them. To simplify things, there wont be any rake.
70($4) - 100($2)
$280(Won) - $200(Buy-in)
$80 in profits = 40% ROI
Now lets say you lost your last 5 games and only win 65/100 of them.
65($4) - 100($2)
$260 - $200
$60 in profits = 30% ROI
So, after losing 5 games, your ROI drops by 10%. That is insane!
What if you put in 1000 HU SNGs with similar results? Again, we'll be looking at a 70% success rate vs losing last 5 games.
700($4) - 1000($2)
$2800 - $2000
$800 = 40% ROI
695($4) - 1000($2)
$2780 - $2000
$780 = 39% ROI
With the same losing streak, but at a higher volume of games, we're only dropping 1% ROI. This is a huge difference compared to dropping 10%. So, it's clear to see what a large sample size can do as far as getting an accurate reading on if we're a winning or losing player. So, just because you may have lost the last 10-15 sit and go's, if you've only put in 40 games thus far, this bad streak is probably pretty insignificant. Also, this is why a good BRM plan is important because it'll help us deal with bad variance. The tighter your BRM plan, the easier it is to grind through these tough streaks. Just keep on playing, get your money in good, and you'll prevail in the long run.