Originally Posted by jaded848
Here's another issue I run into: Making the correct read on if a player will fold in the BB if I shove. There have been multiple times where a player who is 14/6 and has been playing tight calls my shove with a hand like A3o when I have something like J8o, and I'm just bewildered because apparently my read was way off (or maybe it just looks so obvious it's a steal?). It's just so hard to get a read from so few hands, and I think these plays are where I am losing most of my equity- I feel like I'm just "guessing."
Also WiZZiM- how does the 13 BB vs 11 BB factor into my decision? I'm a little confused there.
Well you may have 13bb's but your oppoant, and the only guy left in the hand has 11bb's so, effectively your only shoving 11bb's. Just something to note in future hands, not as important in this situation as were about even stacked.
If i only have a few hands on a guy, ill treat them like a random.. What do random $2 players think its cool to call with? Ax? yep, KQ, yep. Ill treat them as randoms until they show me a reason not too. Try to put yourself in their shoes, your shoving from the SB, what would you expect a novice $2 player to call with? What would you expect a seemingly solid regular to call with? what would you expect a guy whos shown to throw his chips around call with?
Also, make a note system for yourself, like if you didn't expect the guy to call with A3, note that down, it's invaluable taking notes in SNG's.
Another thing to note is if they guy is 14/7(or whatever) over 30 hands, you shouldnt let that weigh too much into your decision making.
Lastly, if your shoving blind vs blind, lets say with 9bb's each. If he's calling with any ace, some broadway, any pair,(a reasonable range you can expect from a $2 player), then he is calling with around 20-25% of hands. That still isn't wide enough to make shoving any two unprofitable in the long run. Hed have to be calling with stuff like K5s,(35%) to make shoving any two unprofitable. Generally speaking though, in this situation, ill just fold out the bottom of my range to them, ill shove 90% instead of 100%, thus, making their 20% call even worse for them.