Satellite SNG - Folded AK but not sure if I was correct...

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shortshanks

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Been away from poker for about six months and have been doing the FT Challenges for fun. One involved SNGs so I just entered the 25 cent Satellite SNG to the daily dollar.

1st and 2nd go get $1.10 in $T, 3rd gets $.25.

Down to three and I'm dealt AK suited in 2nd place with one player on the verge of going out. Best hand I'd seen all tourney, but I folded as both the chipleader and 3rd place went all-in. Was I right and why or why not? Small stakes I know, the reasoning is more important.

Seat 1: shortshanks (3,825)
Seat 3: PushbotchitinG (8,860)
Seat 6: mistesa (815)
mistesa posts the small blind of 300
shortshanks posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to shortshanks [Ah Kh]
PushbotchitinG raises to 8,860, and is all in
mistesa calls 515, and is all in
shortshanks folds
PushbotchitinG shows [8d 6d]
mistesa shows [Ks 3h]
Uncalled bet of 8,045 returned to PushbotchitinG
*** FLOP *** [9d Jc Qs]
*** TURN *** [9d Jc Qs] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [9d Jc Qs 5d] [Ts]
PushbotchitinG shows a straight, Queen high
mistesa shows a straight, King high
mistesa wins the pot (2,230) with a straight, King high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,230 | Rake 0
Board: [9d Jc Qs 5d Ts]
Seat 1: shortshanks (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: PushbotchitinG (button) showed [8d 6d] and lost with a straight, Queen high
Seat 6: mistesa (small blind) showed [Ks 3h] and won (2,230) with a straight, King high
 
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The_Pup

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First of all, that is a dumbass move by the bigstack: with a totally flat prize structure for 1st and 2nd there is absolutely no point in pushing you off your hand. Correct play is a call or min raise and then check it down - neither you nor bigstack care which one of you wins smallstack's chips.

Folding your AK not a disaster but the call is better. Assuming ATC from both villains, by folding you have a 50% chance of going through. Even if you don't go through on this hand you are still in good shape. Your AK call is effectively a 75% call as again you don't care if you or bigstack win - just as long as one of you does. Of the other 25% that the shortstack wins the bigstack will knock you out about 10% and the remaining 15% you will take a chunk of that big stack - which would serve the idiot right.
 
atlantafalcons0

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Been away from poker for about six months and have been doing the FT Challenges for fun. One involved SNGs so I just entered the 25 cent Satellite SNG to the daily dollar.

1st and 2nd go get $1.10 in $T, 3rd gets $.25.

Down to three and I'm dealt AK suited in 2nd place with one player on the verge of going out. Best hand I'd seen all tourney, but I folded as both the chipleader and 3rd place went all-in. Was I right and why or why not? Small stakes I know, the reasoning is more important.

Seat 1: shortshanks (3,825)
Seat 3: PushbotchitinG (8,860)
Seat 6: mistesa (815)
mistesa posts the small blind of 300
shortshanks posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to shortshanks [Ah Kh]
PushbotchitinG raises to 8,860, and is all in
mistesa calls 515, and is all in
shortshanks????

This is how this question should look.




 
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shortshanks

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First of all, that is a dumbass move by the bigstack: with a totally flat prize structure for 1st and 2nd there is absolutely no point in pushing you off your hand. Correct play is a call or min raise and then check it down - neither you nor bigstack care which one of you wins smallstack's chips.

Folding your AK not a disaster but the call is better. Assuming ATC from both villains, by folding you have a 50% chance of going through. Even if you don't go through on this hand you are still in good shape. Your AK call is effectively a 75% call as again you don't care if you or bigstack win - just as long as one of you does. Of the other 25% that the shortstack wins the bigstack will knock you out about 10% and the remaining 15% you will take a chunk of that big stack - which would serve the idiot right.

Thanks for the analysis, much appreciated. I agree that the push by the big stack was extremely annoying and obviously unnecessary. End of the story is I finished 3rd.
 
kmixer

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If the short stack is also all in then calling is ok in my opinion because if the chip leader wins the hand and you and short stack both go out you still get second which is the same prize as first. Two ways to improve with one of the best hands in the game. As nit as I am I am calling here every time.
 
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shortshanks

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If the short stack is also all in then calling is ok in my opinion because if the chip leader wins the hand and you and short stack both go out you still get second which is the same prize as first. Two ways to improve with one of the best hands in the game. As nit as I am I am calling here every time.

Good point. Next time this happens, I'll know what to do, although I can't imagine this happening that often.
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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Call. Chance of you busting out 3rd place in this scenario is slim. It's 1/6 and that's without hands inputted. After inputting your hand, your chance of busting out is lot slimmer than 1/6.
Let's use variables A B C
A = Hero(You)
B = Big Stack
C = Short-stack

1. If showdown ranking order came out as ABC, you win the top 2 prize
2. If showdown ranking order came out as ACB, you win the top 2 prize
3. If showdown ranking order came out as BAC, you win the top 2 prize
4. If showdown ranking order came out as BCA, you win the top 2 prize
5. If showdown ranking order came out as CAB, you still win a huge side pot, become a chip leader and have a very good chance of securing your spot because the stacks will look like this
A = 6020
B = 5035
C = 2445
6. If showdown ranking order came out as CBA, then you're out of luck.

You're only avoiding No.6 scenario. Since top 2 pays the same, it shouldn't matter if big stack beats you. You're only avoiding one specific scenario where short-stack wins main pot and big stack wins the side pot.

If you fold, then it's heads-up and chance of short-stack remaining in the game is dependent on the odds of short-stack vs big stack, which is nearly coin-flip since we know by default that big stack is going all-in with ATC and short-stack is calling with ATC. 50% of game continuing and 50% of ending the game if you fold. By calling, your chance of winning and ending the game is 83% by default.

Don't sweat it too much. I hope I helped ya out with this. I played lot of these satellites and they're very easy grind. You'll get the hang of it easily.
 
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BrentD22

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Easy Fold

I instant muck this hand pre-flop. The short stk is very low and if he busts you win 2nd place without risking any chips. Where as if he doubles up you really don't lose too much equity. Even without doing ICM calculations this is a simple fold IMO.
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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I instant muck this hand pre-flop. The short stk is very low and if he busts you win 2nd place without risking any chips. Where as if he doubles up you really don't lose too much equity. Even without doing ICM calculations this is a simple fold IMO.

If the short-stack had nearly as much as the hero or enough stack to cripple the hero where Hero will be short-stacked even after winning the side pot, then it's a fold. But not in this scenario. It's true that if he folds, he'll not be at risk of busting out during that hand. But the blinds are very high and hero only has 6 blinds left. If short-stack wins, then it becomes another game where hero is in a race for survival.
 
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I instant muck this hand pre-flop. The short stk is very low and if he busts you win 2nd place without risking any chips. Where as if he doubles up you really don't lose too much equity. Even without doing ICM calculations this is a simple fold IMO.

This seems reasonable on initial inspection, but as I and pokerlovesme say above the maths says otherwise. Although pokerlovesme does his/her maths based on equal chance of winning for each hand (which is fair enough), the conclusion is the same. There is only one scenario that worries us here and it occurs 16% (pokerlovesme) or 10% (me). So, you are calling in effect with a 84%/90% hand - that happens to be about the same odds as AA against 72o. And whilst there are a very few situations where folding AA to 72o preflop is +EV this isn't one of them.
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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This seems reasonable on initial inspection, but as I and pokerlovesme say above the maths says otherwise. Although pokerlovesme does his/her maths based on equal chance of winning for each hand (which is fair enough), the conclusion is the same. There is only one scenario that worries us here and it occurs 16% (pokerlovesme) or 10% (me). So, you are calling in effect with a 84%/90% hand - that happens to be about the same odds as AA against 72o. And whilst there are a very few situations where folding AA to 72o preflop is +EV this isn't one of them.

I just made that explanation without inputting the hands just let him see the scenario in bigger picture. If you input the hands on top of my explanation, I'm sure it's 10% or even less. Because fold here only gives short-stack higher chance of surviving and if he does win, it becomes a whole new game and hero has to race against short-stacker. Purpose here is to kill off short-stacker and even in different scenarios, he'll still be in good shape as long as he avoids that one scenario out of 6.
 
SavagePenguin

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Since the big stack shoved (and the shorty called) your proper move was to fold, as you usually that situation less than half the time.
Had the big stack limped, yeah I call, but not when the big stack puts my life on the line.

I'm not quick to criticize the big stack's play.

He's shoving because you'll have to fold a wide range there. He's basically using the short stack against you, as you're likely to fold and sit back hoping that the shorty will bust. Even if you call and win (assuming the shorty folds or doesn't win) he's still a significant favorite against the short stack, and is playing for 2nd which pays the same as 1st.
 
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I would make the call because of the tournament being a small amount of money ! I think it's right to make the call and if the big stack wins and you and ss are out you will finish no worse than 2nd
 
eberetta1

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I would fold. I would be angry at the chip leader for ruining a chance for me to take out the small stack with my AK, but I would fold because I do not want to give the small stack any more chips than needs be, in case he accidentally wins the chips from the chip leader and also from you for going in.
I have gone in on hands to help be doubly sure the guy with fewer chips loses. But any two cards can win a hand. Too bad the chipleader didn't check all the way down and just call the big blind so you would be able to be in the hand.
 
Leo 50

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IMHO under 'normal' circumstances, FOLD.
But that being said this is not your 'normal' tourney.
You get the same prize for second as you do for 1st, so I say play the AK.

As someone else said the odds are for you to at least make it to 2nd and win the prize.

Now having said that I saw the out come of the hand and.......and your AK would dominant and you would have taken at least 2nd.

I always play to win (in this case at least 2nd) and if I push it all in with the best hand and lose because of it, I feel better than chipping it off and losing passively.

:cool:
 
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Since the big stack shoved (and the shorty called) your proper move was to fold, as you usually that situation less than half the time.
Had the big stack limped, yeah I call, but not when the big stack puts my life on the line.

I'm not quick to criticize the big stack's play.

He's shoving because you'll have to fold a wide range there. He's basically using the short stack against you, as you're likely to fold and sit back hoping that the shorty will bust. Even if you call and win (assuming the shorty folds or doesn't win) he's still a significant favorite against the short stack, and is playing for 2nd which pays the same as 1st.


With the SAME PRIZE for 1st and 2nd the button's shove is as bad a play as you can get. Like in double or nothing games, that have a flat payout, players should work together to get 3 ways with the small guy. The best play for the button is to call so that SB will either fold or put in a raise of less than one blind. Then it costs BB and button only 200 odd chips to play. If button raises it makes it slightly more likely a bad BB player will fold - the button needs the BB to play the hand to have the best chance of winning.
 
BrentD22

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I still feel it's a fold. The chip leader made a very odd move, but one that more often than not is a sign of strength. Of course in this instance it wasn't, but I fold and hope the chip leaders hand holds up as a big favorite over short stker, while I risk no chips in case short stker sucks out and wins.
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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I still feel it's a fold. The chip leader made a very odd move, but one that more often than not is a sign of strength. Of course in this instance it wasn't, but I fold and hope the chip leaders hand holds up as a big favorite over short stker, while I risk no chips in case short stker sucks out and wins.

Why are you worried about the big stack? Even if big stack has pocket Aces and win the showdown, you still get the entry. The fact that you're risking a big blind that puts you in nearly a same level of short-stack if short-stack pretty much triples up is the reason why it justifies for the call instead of fold. Think about it. If short-stack nearly triples up, the stack will look like this

Hero: 3225
Big stack: 8045
Small stack: 2230

Just over the fact that you feared the event that happens 16% or less and allowed short-stack to survive with odds of 50%, you are now in a competition and in a race against short-stack who has nearly as much as u have. He can now start shoving and seek fold equities. You just increased the competition.

By calling, you significantly increase your chance of knocking out a short-stack. It does NOT matter if Big stack wins everything. Only situation you're avoiding is short-stack winning a main pot and big stack winning a side pot, which will happen 16% of the time and that's IF all 3 players have equal chance of winning. With AKh vs ATC vs ATC. I was lazy to do the math but here it is if it's AKh vs ATC vs ATC

AK's equity against two random hands is 50%
Variable ABC will happen 25% of the time.
Variable ACB will happen 25% of the time.

Big stack's ATC equity against Hero and short-stack is 25%
Variable BAC will happen slightly more than 12.5% of the time
Variable BCA will happen slightly less than 12.5% of the time

Short-stack's ATC equity against AK and big stack is 25%
Variable CAB will happen slightly more than 12.5% of the time
Variable CBA will happen slightly less than 12.5% of the time.

As long as CBA does not occur, you win. And if CAB occurs, then good, you become a chip leader and you have a very good chance of securing your spot. Any other events that happen, you're guaranteed to win, which is 75%.

Only reason for a fold here is if short-stack has nearly as much as you have where short-stack winning can cripple you and you become severely short-stack even with side pot. Another reason is if short-stack is ridiculously small stack(1 chip, 50 chips, etc) where you have enough Mzone to survive the rotations and rotation just plays by itself to knockout the short-stack. But this wasn't the case. if short-stack tripled up, hero's chance of getting the entry is now significantly reduced and it becomes a whole new game now.

And don't forget. This isn't bubble. You still get your buy-in back if CBA occurs.

Seeing the cards that are rolled over if Hero called, it would've been AK hearts vs 8d6d(bigstack) vs Ks3h. Then equities would've been 46.503% vs 41.013% vs 12.484%. Within those equities, chance of Hero busting out 3rd would've been around 6%.
 
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I still feel it's a fold. The chip leader made a very odd move, but one that more often than not is a sign of strength. Of course in this instance it wasn't, but I fold and hope the chip leaders hand holds up as a big favorite over short stker, while I risk no chips in case short stker sucks out and wins.

I agree with pokerlovesme's analysis, again. If button has a strong hand and we have a strong hand then whoopeee! SB has to beat both of us for it to be bad.

How do you answer the maths that says a call gives you a 85-90% chance of either qualifying or being in a much stronger position, Brent? About the only cards we are worried about is the SB having AA and the button KK - of course they might...
 
womackcali02

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you made the right call! There is no value in calling there. Even if the shortstack doubles up you can still easily win. The risk that you take by calling is far greater then what you would gain from it. Good fold!
 
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I instant muck this hand pre-flop. The short stk is very low and if he busts you win 2nd place without risking any chips. Where as if he doubles up you really don't lose too much equity. Even without doing ICM calculations this is a simple fold IMO.

I did a computation on http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=600&sb=300&ante=0&structure=.44898%2C.44898%2C.10204&s1=8860&s2=815&s3=3825&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

First I found the total prize pool is 1.1+1.1+.25=2.45
Then I found that 1st and 2nd, which pay 1.1, are 1.1/2.45=44.9% of the prizepool, and the $0.25 for 3rd is 10.2%

Plug the blinds in, those %s as decimal #s, then list the button, small blind, and big blind stack in the calculator (my link prefills them in for you) and hit compute.

It says BB should call with the top 6.0% of hands, 77+ AQs+ AQo+ ; so AK fits the AQo+ part and the answer would be to call, thus disagreeing with the poster I quoted. What he thought was an obvious fold was anything but obvious.

An earlier poster said the BB should be raising with ATC - according to this ICM he should only be pushing the top 15% of his hands.

Also, given that the villian who pushed has 'pushbot' in his name, isn't that evidence that HE is using ICM, and so we can as well?
 
salim271

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At microstakes I'm calling. At higher stakes with bigger prizes/more to lose I'm folding.
 
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Why are you worried about the big stack? Even if big stack has pocket Aces and win the showdown, you still get the entry. The fact that you're risking a big blind that puts you in nearly a same level of short-stack if short-stack pretty much triples up is the reason why it justifies for the call instead of fold. Think about it. If short-stack nearly triples up, the stack will look like this

Hero: 3225
Big stack: 8045
Small stack: 2230

Just over the fact that you feared the event that happens 16% or less and allowed short-stack to survive with odds of 50%, you are now in a competition and in a race against short-stack who has nearly as much as u have. He can now start shoving and seek fold equities. You just increased the competition.

By calling, you significantly increase your chance of knocking out a short-stack. It does NOT matter if Big stack wins everything. Only situation you're avoiding is short-stack winning a main pot and big stack winning a side pot, which will happen 16% of the time and that's IF all 3 players have equal chance of winning. With AKh vs ATC vs ATC. I was lazy to do the math but here it is if it's AKh vs ATC vs ATC

AK's equity against two random hands is 50%
Variable ABC will happen 25% of the time.
Variable ACB will happen 25% of the time.

Big stack's ATC equity against Hero and short-stack is 25%
Variable BAC will happen slightly more than 12.5% of the time
Variable BCA will happen slightly less than 12.5% of the time

Short-stack's ATC equity against AK and big stack is 25%
Variable CAB will happen slightly more than 12.5% of the time
Variable CBA will happen slightly less than 12.5% of the time.

As long as CBA does not occur, you win. And if CAB occurs, then good, you become a chip leader and you have a very good chance of securing your spot. Any other events that happen, you're guaranteed to win, which is 75%.

Only reason for a fold here is if short-stack has nearly as much as you have where short-stack winning can cripple you and you become severely short-stack even with side pot. Another reason is if short-stack is ridiculously small stack(1 chip, 50 chips, etc) where you have enough Mzone to survive the rotations and rotation just plays by itself to knockout the short-stack. But this wasn't the case. if short-stack tripled up, hero's chance of getting the entry is now significantly reduced and it becomes a whole new game now.

And don't forget. This isn't bubble. You still get your buy-in back if CBA occurs.

Seeing the cards that are rolled over if Hero called, it would've been AK hearts vs 8d6d(bigstack) vs Ks3h. Then equities would've been 46.503% vs 41.013% vs 12.484%. Within those equities, chance of Hero busting out 3rd would've been around 6%.
while i didn't read most of it, (short attention span :D) i agree, got to this thread late, but i totally agree making the overcall is good here, if were on the bubble things become differant, but we already have our buyin back, and making the call here seems fine, since if we fold, we pretty much give the shortie more equity. Anyways i created a full tilt steps payout structure in SNG wizard, put in suitable ranges, i made the button shove a little tighter than what he actually showed up with. and its hugely Plus EV to make the call here.

I did a computation on http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/s...1=8860&s2=815&s3=3825&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

First I found the total prize pool is 1.1+1.1+.25=2.45
Then I found that 1st and 2nd, which pay 1.1, are 1.1/2.45=44.9% of the prizepool, and the $0.25 for 3rd is 10.2%

Plug the blinds in, those %s as decimal #s, then list the button, small blind, and big blind stack in the calculator (my link prefills them in for you) and hit compute.

It says BB should call with the top 6.0% of hands, 77+ AQs+ AQo+ ; so AK fits the AQo+ part and the answer would be to call, thus disagreeing with the poster I quoted. What he thought was an obvious fold was anything but obvious.

An earlier poster said the BB should be raising with ATC - according to this ICM he should only be pushing the top 15% of his hands.

Also, given that the villian who pushed has 'pushbot' in his name, isn't that evidence that HE is using ICM, and so we can as well?
You shouldn't solely rely on the ranges given by ICM calculators such as this one.
 
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WiZZiM

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Ok so i put it into WIZ and immediately loved the call, played around with the ranges, and the breakeven point is if the guy is shoving like 12% of hands..

pretty interesting spot though, im not totally down with Steps or flat payout structures so i found this very interesting good thread..
 

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BeaverTrump

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In the present state of affairs, in spite of the fact that many advise to play cautiously and to dump hands AK, AQ, 22-TT I calling for the reason that PushbotchitinG would play all-in with any hand with its stack, and mistesa calling with any pair and any A. Shansy on a prize very good and also even if you and have lost distribution could be stronger mistesa and you would occupy 2 place from you. And so you have received the contender with a stack to relatives to yours. My opinion it is necessary to risk))))
 
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