re: Poker & Satellite SNG - Folded AK but not sure if I was correct...
Originally Posted by BrentD22
I still feel it's a fold. The chip leader made a very odd move, but one that more often than not is a sign of strength. Of course in this instance it wasn't, but I fold and hope the chip leaders hand holds up as a big favorite over short stker, while I risk no chips in case short stker sucks out and wins.
Why are you worried about the big stack? Even if big stack has pocket Aces and win the showdown, you still get the entry. The fact that you're risking a big blind that puts you in nearly a same level of short-stack if short-stack pretty much triples up is the reason why it justifies for the call instead of fold. Think about it. If short-stack nearly triples up, the stack will look like this
Big stack: 8045
Small stack: 2230
Just over the fact that you feared the event that happens 16% or less and allowed short-stack to survive with odds of 50%, you are now in a competition and in a race against short-stack who has nearly as much as u have. He can now start shoving and seek fold equities. You just increased the competition.
By calling, you significantly increase your chance of knocking out a short-stack. It does NOT matter if Big stack wins everything. Only situation you're avoiding is short-stack winning a main pot and big stack winning a side pot, which will happen 16% of the time and that's IF all 3 players have equal chance of winning. With AKh vs ATC vs ATC. I was lazy to do the math but here it is if it's AKh vs ATC vs ATC
AK's equity against two random hands is 50%
Variable ABC will happen 25% of the time.
Variable ACB will happen 25% of the time.
Big stack's ATC equity against Hero and short-stack is 25%
Variable BAC will happen slightly more than 12.5% of the time
Variable BCA will happen slightly less than 12.5% of the time
Short-stack's ATC equity against AK and big stack is 25%
Variable CAB will happen slightly more than 12.5% of the time
Variable CBA will happen slightly less than 12.5% of the time.
As long as CBA does not occur, you win. And if CAB occurs, then good, you become a chip leader and you have a very good chance of securing your spot. Any other events that happen, you're guaranteed to win, which is 75%.
Only reason for a fold here is if short-stack has nearly as much as you have where short-stack winning can cripple you and you become severely short-stack even with side pot. Another reason is if short-stack is ridiculously small stack(1 chip, 50 chips, etc) where you have enough Mzone to survive the rotations and rotation just plays by itself to knockout the short-stack. But this wasn't the case. if short-stack tripled up, hero's chance of getting the entry is now significantly reduced and it becomes a whole new game now.
And don't forget. This isn't bubble. You still get your buy-in back if CBA occurs.
Seeing the cards that are rolled over if Hero called, it would've been AK hearts vs 8d6d(bigstack) vs Ks3h. Then equities would've been 46.503% vs 41.013% vs 12.484%. Within those equities, chance of Hero busting out 3rd would've been around 6%.