Satellite question

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kanselau

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Satelite to 2200 main event - 4 tickets 5th $1200

11 runners left Average stack 35k Blinds 2000/4000 - play is 5 handed

Our stack 25k
Villain stack is 30k

We have been card dead for some time , so image is tight , have history with villain and he respects our game. The player is experienced but would classify him to be just above average.
Few hands ago villain went all in with KQ UTG for about 20BB.
And in previous round he jammed 22BB on the button after a limper in MD
Hero has AQo in BB with 20BB. So villain has been quite active .

First question AQ good fold?
Second question.

Folded around to villain in SB he shoves 30k , we wake up with A7s
Should we make this call with our 21k , or is it better to fold and start shoving when we get the button.?
 
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miko122

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I would say the AQ is a shove because most of his range you have dominated and if not 50/50 flip just unlucky if he has ak, qq, kk, aa here. Most of the time people like that are just taking advantage of the near bubble because no one wants to go out. And for the second one i believe it is a shove also you only have 7-8 bb and most likely ahead and cant afford to wait much longer.
 
Poker Orifice

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the HH seems confusing.
How do we have 20bb's on 25k with blinds 2k/4k?
(or is that referring to the 2nd question only?)
 
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Nylan

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I qeus you fold was the best option ...
 
Loonbat

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With your remaining 5.25 BBs, this is a tough one and I'm on the fence. Normally you're ahead here, but likely only a 55-60% favorite again a fully random range.

I see that chips average is 35K, but this means nothing. How many stacks are in your ballpark (15 - 30K) and what is the chip bullies stacksize?
 
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kanselau

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the HH seems confusing.
How do we have 20bb's on 25k with blinds 2k/4k?
(or is that referring to the 2nd question only?)
Sorry for the confusion PO , the 25k stack refers to the second question only.

The first question we have AQ and a 20BB stack Blinds at that stage were 1000/2000
 
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kanselau

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With your remaining 5.25 BBs, this is a tough one and I'm on the fence. Normally you're ahead here, but likely only a 55-60% favorite again a fully random range.

I see that chips average is 35K, but this means nothing. How many stacks are in your ballpark (15 - 30K) and what is the chip bullies stacksize?
hero is in BB 25k
seat 1 20k
seat 2 60k
seat 3 35k
villain SB 30k
Yea I was also on the fence , I thought that villain was capable of pushing a random range.
A7 is the best hand we seen for a while.
The fellow to the left earlier called my shove from SB to BB with 22 with 15BB , so not a rock.

The bully to the left is also not a rock and plays a different game , has either been opening for 5BB or min ( mostly 5 BB haven't any showdowns so don't know what that means , I suspect the bigger raises are with worse cards)

And the last two satelites we played for this torney, we cashed first one but only min , and bubbled second one , and same scenario Q2 , 74, 63 so we folded our way to death.

So these facts tipped the scale to a call for me, but a marginal one indeed .
But still now that I think about it maybe we are better of just letting this go and shoving any two , when first in with aittle fold equity .
 
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MTCashman

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I know u had a lot on the line, but I would call him with the A7 for sure, because he respects your image he knows you can and will fold most times, so I bet he was taking advantage of this
 
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Flsnookman

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Will you make 5th without a double up? If you feel the answer is no then you go with the a q. Again thats just my opinion and we all know what those are like. Good luck.
 
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