Rule of Thumb for Tournament Time To Final Table

Poker_Mike

Poker_Mike

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Hi - what is the rule of thumb for how long it takes to get to the final table from when the tournament first starts ?

Field: 160 entries
Levels: 30 min
Starting Stack: 12,000 chips
Antes: Yes

Thanks.
 
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playinggameswithu

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If the levels are 30 minutes each it will take a while with that deepstack unless the tournament is freeroll with maniac fish plentiful.

See how many players get KOed in first 40 minutes then extrapolate.
 
Edison A

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how much did the blinds start? that depends on time!
 
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ucdengboss

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30 min blinds?!? Is this live or online? 30 mins is pretty slow online.

Also starting blinds matter. Is it 10/20 to start? Do antes start at a certain level or right away?

For 160 players with 10/20 blinds to start and 30 minute blinds I would guess that you will be 4 hours or more with the blinds at 4 hours only getting up to something like 150/300 or 200/400. Even at 200/400 a break even player maintaining starting stack size of 12,000 still has 30 BBs and is not under that much pressure. Maybe like 5 or 6 hours even to FT.

I don't know of any rule of thumb, sorry. That is 600BBs to start if it starts at 10-20!
 
Poker_Mike

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Thanks for the help guys.


Blinds start at 25/50


This tournament is not a freeroll and is a tough field overall.


Can one extrapolate how many players drop out in the first 40 min? Doesn't the speed of players going out change at different points in the tournie ?


If there are rebuys for the 1st 4 levels then that would be an inaccurate count for the extrapolation because many of those players busted out just to rebuy ?


Even though I am looking for an approximation I am looking for variables to tweek the result and get an even more accurate time.


How much do antes speed up a tournie ?
 
playinggameswithu

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I asked my cousin, who is a Statistician, and he said to calculate this is absurdly difficult. The extrapolation would not be linear although it is the closest you can do. Look up past finished tourney and see how long it lasted. All poker rooms have tournament data on request.
 
smallfrie

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I am going to make a guess of around 4hrs and 15 minutes. Let me know how long it takes.
 
Poker_Mike

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How are you guys coming up with the 4 hour approximation ?


And I don't disagree with that number.


But there's gotta be a rough formula despite the mathematician's lack of enthusiasm ?
 
Poker Orifice

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First question for OP.... Why?There are sites that can help you to calculate stuff if you're planning on putting on your own tournament.
Next question
Unless you display the exact blind schedule/levels it is impossible to say. So.. write it out if you want any answer that is better than just a complete guess.
 
Poker_Mike

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I will look into those websites that will calculate the duration of a tournament.


I appreciate the offer to do the math for me but I'm still asking what the formula is to calculate the time.


I figure total number of chips and how quickly the blinds rise would be the key variables ?
 
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