Originally Posted by Pascal LeFiscal
folding is still -cev, but may be +$ev
^^This is probably the right answer. This is a tourney, not ring. In ring I can't tell you what is supposed to be done, but in a tourney the factors are different. The action may be the same, but the reasons for that action is not necessarily the same.
I hear that same old argument about being in it to win it, not just getting ITM, and this hand is a good example of why a fold is reasonable.
2 villains, as shorty is in an obvious shove situation, and biggie, yet to act, seems like he is willing to play along. This puts us in an uncomfortable, and unnecessary position, and only our table position gives us any comfort. Biggy has already realized that shorty is essentially pot committed, and is willing to risk what is for him a trivial (relative stacks) amount. That extra dynamic of biggy showing willingness suggests highly that shorties stack is destined to get in there, and we are essentially squeezed. Not a typical standard squeeze, but rather a de facto squeeze.
So, yeah, it may be -EV to fold here in general, it looks like a pretty clear case for a +$EV tourney decision.
I still like flatting here cuz just in case......... But reads on biggy could be a critical deciding factor, and since as stated there are no reads, I can fold this. We can close out the PF action. Academic as OP did fold PF, but as stated, it was iffy.
The really curious part of this hand IMHO, is why shorty didn't shove PF. He doesn't have enuf equity for his reraise to mean anything. So it looks like a sweetener more than anything else, so shorty with monsters is an elevated possibility. UTG+1 seems to have read it that way, and biggy seems to be willing, suggesting he has watched shorty and he does have a read on the table.