This is a discussion on Probability and Odds question within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; ok im playing the 10 cent rebuy on carbon just now and something happened that causes me to raise a question about the probabilities of 


#1




Probability and Odds question
ok im playing the 10 cent rebuy on carbon just now and something happened that causes me to raise a question about the probabilities of something happening across multiple hands, in this case i mean specifically 2 hands
there was a player who had a larger stack around 11k, and smaller stack with about 2k shoved in with AQ suited and the 11k calls with A9 the AQ holds on and next hand the same player shoves in again, now with about 4.7 k stack, they have QQ. same player who lost before and now with a little less larger stack , calls with AT suited. they hit the flush and knock out the smaller stack, as i see this, im thinking about how much of an advantage the larger stack had because he only needed to win 1 out of 2 to end up with all of the others chips. they were able to go into both hands behind but still have a decent chance of taking all their chips. for those of you who are good at this, can you tell me what were the odds of things happening with these hands. and i mean consider that they had exactly the hands that they had. what was the larger stacks chances of winning at least one hand which was all they needed to do. i suppose the reverse would be, what was the other players chances of winning both hands, which he had to do to remain alive. i know in the first hand AQ was pretty favored, like 70 percent maybe. but across 2 hands, his overall chances would be, 50 percent? 40 percent? not sure if his chances were like 40 percent or less to win both, thats pretty crazy that the larger stack can go in that behind in both hands yet be favored to win all the chips overall 
#2




We can't give you the exact odds without knowing the suits of all four cards in each hand but the small stack was roughly a 70% favorite in each hand, so the small stack would win both hands about 49% of the time.
HooDooKoo Quote:

#3




The larger stack had about a 49.37% chance to win one of those hands, evaluated before either hand was resolved.

#4




re: Poker & Probability and Odds question
That's a problem when going all in with a shortstack against a huge stack in a tournament. Even if you have a big edge each time there is about a 5050 chance of busting out if you do it twice. That's one reason huge stacks call shortstacks so loosely at times.

#5




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