Pot odds to call here?

M

MaxiRodriguez

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 12, 2009
Total posts
403
Chips
0
Heres a situation where im not really sure and just needed some simple clarification. The actual pot is 480, one player has bet half 240, with this bet I dont have the odds to call to my NFD.

But when its my turn to act, another player has called and the pot is now showing 960 giving me 25% odds. So simple question is, going by pot odds alone, is this a call or a fold.

Thanks.
 

Attachments

  • PO.jpg
    PO.jpg
    63.7 KB · Views: 10
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
4.55:1 draw (nut outs only)
4:1 immediate pot odds

You have to make at least 133 chips on the river when you hit your draw for your call on the turn to be a winning play.
 
benevg

benevg

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 22, 2007
Total posts
1,267
Chips
0
first, nice pot :) i presume Chazz either went all-in when you hit, or called your all-in, and then called you names. you gotta love playing against him in the future.

the immediate pot odds are not enough to call here (you get 4:1 pot odds, meaning you need to hit at least 20% of the time to make this profitable - not 25 - and your chance of hitting is 9/46, which is approximately 19.5%). however, even if you never get paid when you hit, this is a very small mistake. add in the chance that someone will give you some chips when you hit (called implied odds), and this becomes a clear call :)
 
Bigsmak

Bigsmak

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Total posts
193
Chips
0
Regardless of the odds here (its a tournament so I think stack sizes are more important than odds anyway - this is a debate i have with a lot of people) you have to call as you have the stack to do so and you want to take both players chips if you have the chance.

If you miss you can fold on the river and I don't know but I guess the blinds are quite low still as everyone nearly has their starting stacks...

I'd call for 240...
 
M

MaxiRodriguez

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 12, 2009
Total posts
403
Chips
0
What are the blinds? What rep do the players have? What format of tourney? What buy in?

Jeez people round here are so amateur.

This is insulting you know nothing of me or how I play. If i wanted to post analysis for this hand I would've posted in the hand analysis section.

All I wanted to know was the odds, Which has been answered and Thanks guys. As you can see I did take down the pot think the other dude had AQ, or something im not sure it was a while ago.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
All I wanted to know was the odds, Which has been answered and Thanks guys. As you can see I did take down the pot think the other dude had AQ, or something im not sure it was a while ago.
Yeah, the implied odds are what makes this hand playable and they can be really hard to estimate. In this particular hand, its pretty easy since you only need to make a tiny amount on the river to be profitable. But if you had to make, say, 500-600 chips on the river you'd want to consider the following:

1) Do you call a bet when an ace hits?
2) Do you raise when the board pairs?
3) How strong is my opponent's range?
4) Is he aggressive enough to bet the river if a diamond hits, or will he even call a bet?

So if you make 133 chips when a diamond hits, but proceed to spew off 1000 chips when an ace hits to his AQ, then the call isn't profitable. Just some stuff to think about.
 
C

channing73ny

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 4, 2006
Total posts
79
Chips
0
call

well u got the nut flush draw so id definately make the call cant go buy odds all the time go buy your gut feeling
 
B

Ben_Dover

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 4, 2008
Total posts
34
Chips
0
4.55:1 draw (nut outs only)
4:1 immediate pot odds

You have to make at least 133 chips on the river when you hit your draw for your call on the turn to be a winning play.

This didn't make sense to me: How do I get 4.55:1 and 133 chips?

I'd expect 4.1:1 draw and if really splitting hairs requires $25 extra to find exactly 19.5% break-even.

To avoid math I play that any flush draw w/ 3 players breaks even at half-pot. (Ok, it's really 45% pot but I can't remember that after a few cocktails.)
 
spiderman637

spiderman637

RIP Buck
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 5, 2009
Total posts
1,835
Chips
0
well according to my odds calculator, u have the following statistics...

win-19.80%
tie-0.74%
lose-79.46%

Thats what my odds calculator says...

But if u ask me, it worth a call easily !!!
CALL IT !!!
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
This didn't make sense to me: How do I get 4.55:1 and 133 chips?
I just used the rule of 2 to guesstimate his chances of hitting his flush.

2*9 outs = 18%
82/18 = 4.556:1

Since pot odds are 4:1, 4.556-4.0 = 0.556 remaining to make the call break even.

0.556 * (betsize) = 0.556*240 = 133 chips made on river to get the right odds to draw on the turn.
 
M

mokivsupra

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Feb 7, 2009
Total posts
7
Chips
0
The pot odds already justify the call. Given the implied odds it's a call for sure. Now, the only thing that could chang that is where you are in the tourney and what your goal (winning vs. making the money) is.
 
T

the west wing

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Total posts
47
Chips
0
You should call -> you've probably got the best hand if an ace comes out as well, and your stack is such that you can afford the risk.
 
E

elbandiddo32

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 14, 2008
Total posts
14
Chips
0
things can get so complicated with pot odds andf winning or losing odds and what's the weather like or have i had enough to drink. lol sorry got carried away but sometimes i think to myself that even if i had all that info it would not matter because 240 is not a big call for a big payoff and maybe a double up. It's a tourney and u have to play to win and that means getting chips.
 
ukaliks

ukaliks

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 22, 2007
Total posts
1,292
Awards
1
Chips
0
I just used the rule of 2 to guesstimate his chances of hitting his flush.

2*9 outs = 18%
82/18 = 4.556:1

Since pot odds are 4:1, 4.556-4.0 = 0.556 remaining to make the call break even.

0.556 * (betsize) = 0.556*240 = 133 chips made on river to get the right odds to draw on the turn.

I kinda get this, but it's a bit of a head blag bcos im stoned. Like where do u get the 82/ and *240 from?

I go by if u're gettin 4:1 or better then call. 3:1 if u've got the nuts flush. Ur stack is pretty deep too so i would of called, mayb a semi-bluff shove?
 
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top