Originally Posted by missjacki
So I think the panic shove was, kind of a silly play that kills your action when you are ahead and only gets called when you are beat. AJ/A8/88/22 will call you and everyone else will fold. Turning your hand into a bluff right here makes no sense because it's hard for you to trick a better hand into folding. If he has any Ace, he probably has 2 pair or a big Ace....so not folding. By jamming you let a hand like KJ/QQ off the hook.
Here's how I'd think about this hand. Once the flop comes safe and you make your C-bet you have to consider yourself pretty much pot committed. The only card that might scare me into possibly folding on the turn or river would be another Jack. So...if we're probably going to get our stack in at some point unless another Jack comes....then what is our goal in getting our stack in? Value bet. Extraction i.e. we want to get called when we are ahead. How do we make that happen? By checking the turn and letting them think their Jx or QQ is good.
Nice analysis missjacki as always!
The bit ive quoted here kind of sums up my thinking. The only question is whether we are always gonna call a river shove (unless maybe a J comes out).
Checking the turn gives the villain a chance to bluff the river with loads of hands that we beat because he might assume we dont like the ace and can get us to fold for our tournament life.
So if we check the turn on the thinking were gonna call a river shove then were gonna be picking off bluffs more often than we are beat. And my panic shove means we only go to showdown with hands that beat us. So that was why i wanted some feedback on whether a turn check would be more profitable.
Whats your thoughts on if the villain checks the river as well? would a value bet be a good shout or should we be happy to go to showdown and take an already decent-sized pot?