PM1 bubble time KK

XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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Hello

poker maximums series

entry about 1.5K players, and 207 paid.

I got KK, and there were 209 players left, think I am ranking about 157th something.
4 minutes ago, I switched to this new table....think that HUD does not matter....

001


Jam or call, which one looks better?
think that Jam is a good way to accumulate chips, but need to risk be bubble.
call see a flop, think KK is fine, but would lost some max EV or max chips value here.


what do u think is the best....anyway I would 100% not fold KK ....even bubble ....LOL


thank you in advance!
 
Gorak

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I'm no expert but I think playing KK in a 3 way pot is not a good idea.

The pot is already 19,200 so taking it without a fight would be nice.

I'd probably shove.
 
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Henreiman

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It's 100% a jam. You have fold equity, it's an effective spot to squeeze, you don't want to play OOP with what will likely be an overpair (and therefore get you stacked by QJ or something), you need the chips to go deep, and many other reasons.
 
loafes

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No thinking necessary, this is a spot I'm insta shoving 100% of the time
 
nax

nax

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This is an insta shove spot, but what did you do at the end? :cool:
 
INGAJ

INGAJ

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For me the only way is to go for all in.
 
valkopt

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Yeap, shove it no doubt about it. You can't risk a 3 way pot and the raise from the CO was just a "let's see what the flop brings" :D
 
Airburn

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Shove Shove Shove and pray for the poker gods for them not to suck out on you haha (They probbly will though =P)
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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This is an insta shove spot, but what did you do at the end? :cool:


I do the mental maths think that ....

ev jam = ev jam fold + ev jam call
ev call = ev preflop + ev postflop fold + ev posflop jam call


so think that they probabally call with 77+, AJ or what ever
and this means by standard they fold about more than 50% times.... I mean two player folds both!

so ev jam = 50%* [22200]+ 50% [ 40%*87860]=27-28K somthing

If I call, would have again most of A2+ to 44+ and broadway or worse what ever!
i would only fold on A high flop think that only appears about 1/6 chance

so ev call= 50%*[22200]+ 1/6[-6000]+5/6*50%[32833+6000*3+1500+2700]=32-33K,
think both player would fold some flop...since...it is very hard to get them paid off, if flops like J 2 9 or what ever...but that is fine...if they do call flop like worst top pair or some flush draws or what ever, think I have some 40-50% equity. if they hit set, two pair or trap with AA, and whatever...It will happen anyway....if jam.

think calling ev is between 22K to 33K something like that.
---
well compared to jam ev 27-28K chips, i think 22K is fine, just sacrifice 5K ev for a tournament life is OK, and besides potentially would gain extra 5K chips when flop is not scary and doubled up after seen a flop or even better triple up, if get both player call worse hand.
I think in my mind calling is better...

so I do call....
Snap


then unfortunately I hit A high board...which I could not go on...
so one player bet..I just save my chips go away....and after two hands bubble breaks, I went to the money


Snap 2

Snap 3

that is the whole story!

I don't know if my decision is better or not at that moment! depends on how u guys think both players' range!
 
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matiusaa

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well, that was the reason for shove. He would have folded probably, and you got the 2nd best starting hand, you are supposed to take all the value you can from it, and thus, you have 12 blinds
 
doncaster

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if there were 51 players left and top 50 make the cash...I would insta fold.One player has only 8000 in chips and will be blinded out very soon,leaving me in the money.First objective is always make the cut..... I think ?
 
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matiusaa

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You don't have to be afraid to be the bubble. The best cashes are in the final table, and you were way away from it, this hand was a great opportunity to double up, It was all in preflop
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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well, that was the reason for shove. He would have folded probably, and you got the 2nd best starting hand, you are supposed to take all the value you can from it, and thus, you have 12 blinds
jam is not for the reason to fold...think i don't know and guarantee they fold , it becomes another story!

I think the very difficult point is how many percentage he fold...?
I mean both players!

if running a HUD with large samples, Obv a very easy thing to estimate!

but since this is new table, It is very hard to know how large equity could be!

BTW: think that if u noticed that I am the shortest stack who involving in the pot, and besize on the picture, the right above there are only 8K short stack who is going to blinds out[ with ante blinds level 3K] very quickly....and other tables I think there were some less than 9K shortstack....

since 207 paid, only 209 player left. I don't mind ....safe play this hand....trade for a insured money!

BTW: if double up, I think would just jump to top 58th something, does not help for big money!
 
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XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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if there were 51 players left and top 50 make the cash...I would insta fold.One player has only 8000 in chips and will be blinded out very soon,leaving me in the money.First objective is always make the cut..... I think ?
207 players paid, only 209 left, some shortstack other tables?

same situation?:D

PS: i don't mind throwing 3K chips to see what happens on flop, if I hit KKX on flop....would try to get as many as chips ....into pot...LOL
 
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if it's super close to the money I'd tank as much as possible and shove last minute or like raise to 38000 so it takes them more time to think too and improve your chance of getting through the bubble
 
J

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if there were 51 players left and top 50 make the cash...I would insta fold.One player has only 8000 in chips and will be blinded out very soon,leaving me in the money.First objective is always make the cut..... I think ?
It may be nice to make the money, but why are you playing to make a min cash, the bigger money is in the final 4 players or so.... so when people are playing tight you want to open up and steal as many blinds and pots, to increase your chances of a final table and therfore a big cash
 
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jangalang37

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I would have done exactly what you did. Only I might of tried a re raise to see if he folded.
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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It may be nice to make the money, but why are you playing to make a min cash, the bigger money is in the final 4 players or so.... so when people are playing tight you want to open up and steal as many blinds and pots, to increase your chances of a final table and therfore a big cash
just want to explain the situation

that game is 1.1 USD buyin rebuy and addon

I joined game, WITHOUT REBUY AND ADDON!

and the min pay is something like 9.7 bucks.

if based on ROI

If got a suck out...I would 30% ...knocked out....lost some 8 .7 times buyins to trade for I think the 58th is something like 15-17 buck...[meaning 15 times of the buyin]


yes, from the absolute numbers , 8 bucks profit does not mean anything, mini cash
but from ROI, 870% ROI is huge number...one game add to ur ....record...which in this case at that moment mostly secured there!

I would still think it is OK to safe play this for the short and for the long term!
 
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matiusaa

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I'm not saying it was a bad decition, I'm saying that It could have been a chance to get better, but you had to risk, of course. That was up to you. How did you ended the tournament?
 
Poker Orifice

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Actually you want to get as many chips in the middle as possible. Shoving here should hopefully get looked up! (I might consider 'calling' if we were a bit deeper & figured aggro LP raiser would fold to the shove).

As far as 'calling' with intentions of folding if an Ace appears on the flop... this is a real bad way of thinking & terrible way to play it.

Also, I'm not sure how you estimate that if you get it in & double up, you'll place in top 58 spots. (what? are you planning on blinding down again or something). You'll have a 25-30+bb stack & will have the oppurtunity for re-steal shoves with fold equity amongst other things (as opposed to sitting on a shortstack with very little fold equity for open shoves).
gii & final table it!
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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Actually you want to get as many chips in the middle as possible. Shoving here should hopefully get looked up! (I might consider 'calling' if we were a bit deeper & figured aggro LP raiser would fold to the shove).

As far as 'calling' with intentions of folding if an Ace appears on the flop... this is a real bad way of thinking & terrible way to play it.

Also, I'm not sure how you estimate that if you get it in & double up, you'll place in top 58 spots. (what? are you planning on blinding down again or something). You'll have a 25-30+bb stack & will have the oppurtunity for re-steal shoves with fold equity amongst other things (as opposed to sitting on a shortstack with very little fold equity for open shoves).
gii & final table it!


A on board...first to act....

terrible to jam...obv..

what hand expect to call a jam? at least an A...in that case , a jam is becoming..totally 2 outs draw bluff with KK on A high board.
and the hand u could bluff out, is all the hand u could win at least 80% by showdown.

Btw: 1 USD buyin tournament, lots of donkeys...20bb stack resteal, i don't think so.
if 100USD buyin , obv some good players left...they know how to fold to ...something like chip bully..but 1USD buyin tournament....who cares,if have a hand....whatever...

think that overestimate the fold equity from donkeys on 1USD buyin tournament.:p...since I am new to table...whatever..but I do tag some donkeys who still left during bubble time.
 
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micalupagoo

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I fully agree with PO (as usual)
back in the day Id blind down and fold my way to min cash
CC taught me better
you played it safe, lost some chips, but did make a cash, WTG,
BUT
I now would always insta shove, regardless of buyin or villians/stack sizes...
I'll bubble a 1000 more times-its fine (well, I tell myself its fine lol)
I want final tbls, I want the WINS!!!
 
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with pocision you have and a little stack of 10bb, raise to 15k
would be ideal and then try to get value, provided it does not fall by letters A or qqx or bad
 
Poker Orifice

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A on board...first to act....

terrible to jam...obv..

what hand expect to call a jam? at least an A...in that case , a jam is becoming..totally 2 outs draw bluff with KK on A high board.
and the hand u could bluff out, is all the hand u could win at least 80% by showdown.

Btw: 1 USD buyin tournament, lots of donkeys...20bb stack resteal, i don't think so.
if 100USD buyin , obv some good players left...they know how to fold to ...something like chip bully..but 1USD buyin tournament....who cares,if have a hand....whatever...

think that overestimate the fold equity from donkeys on 1USD buyin tournament.:p...since I am new to table...whatever..but I do tag some donkeys who still left during bubble time.
I think you've misunderstood what I wrote (actually I know you have).
I didn't suggest to 'call' w KK & then open-donk-jam a flop AXX here.
 
loafes

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Yeah surely you should be happy to shove early in an MTT and get called by Ax? I mean ideally youd rater be called by a smaller pocket pair or randm under cards but why are you claiming getting it in with the best hand is unprofitable?
 
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