PLO: bottom set on a drawy board

[flint]

This happened to me yesterday in a 10+1 PLO tourney on Felt stars (Merge Network).

I got dealt 55xx on BB at 50/100. My stack was about 2.5k, 2 people limp in, SB completes and I check. The board comes AT5 with the two bigger cards being suited. I lead for pot size of 400, get raised by the next player pot to 2000 and I ship.

My question is that I have learned that in Omaha that set over set is much more likely, something like 1/10 so would the chance with 3 other players therefore be 3/10? Also with such a shallow stack should I always be jamming? (In cash games I would obv. fold).

 

[Divebitch]

You could easily be behind here to a higher set. Not everyone raises with naked aces (AAxx/AA48 rainbow), I certainly wouldn't. Sorry, but your initial raise was not a good play, especially in early position. No one with a decent flush draw will fold. No one with a JQK will fold - well, maybe. Someone with an A-10 might also stick around. Your stack was not that shallow. This is a check-fold, IMO. Wait for a better spot. You can never be drawing to the nuts here unless you get the case 5 (let's assume no one is drawing to quad 10s or aces).

BTW, did the other 2 people in the hand call? You don't mention it, so they folded? Then again, you say "so would the chance with 3 other players therefore be 3/10?", so I'm thinking they did call. So what was the outcome?? Or do you wanna wait? I'm thinking flush draw, and it hit. In a way, 3 people in the hand could mean they are all drawing dead with aces & 10s in their hand, or they have the needed suit in their hands, which makes the flush less likely. On the other hand, if only 1 opponent jams, and the others fold, it's more likely he's got the over set, and you are drawing dead. On a somewhat more insignificant note, it could mean that more of the flush suit is still in the deck. IOW, he might have 2 top pair with redraws to a flush, not good for you.

 

[flint]

BTW, did the other 2 people in the hand call? You don't mention it, so they folded? Then again, you say "so would the chance with 3 other players therefore be 3/10?", so I'm thinking they did call. So what was the outcome?? Or do you wanna wait?

No the other 2 folded. What I meant is that when there are 3 players in the pot, does that mean that the chance that there is a over set increase to 3/10 from 1/10 (which it would be against one player). Im probably getting the maths wrong here, but I would like to know how likely the guy is to have a higher set when he pots it.

I put him on a range of two pair, big draw and maybe an over set (which he had although it doesn't really matter for the questions). The average stack was close to 4k so I was feeling some pressure to double up, so I decided that I am likely to be flipping - was this assessment correct?

And you are right dive, I didn't play this that well. I definitely want to get rid of some of this C-game (which was due to tiredness).

 

[Divebitch]

No the other 2 folded. What I meant is that when there are 3 players in the pot, does that mean that the chance that there is a over set increase to 3/10 from 1/10 (which it would be against one player). Im probably getting the maths wrong here, but I would like to know how likely the guy is to have a higher set when he pots it.

I put him on a range of two pair, big draw and maybe an over set (which he had although it doesn't really matter for the questions). The average stack was close to 4k so I was feeling some pressure to double up, so I decided that I am likely to be flipping - was this assessment correct?

Not sure what the odds are. There are only 2 over sets possible. 3 players means 2 other players, in which case there's roughly double the chance, or so it would seem to me. There is no way of knowing.

Okay, let's say villain has that top 2 pair and a flush draw (4 outs AATT, flush a flush draw 9 out. That's 13 x 2. He is slightly ahead of that coin-flip. When you throw in the possibility of an overset, he wins hands down unless you see the case 5, which I would not bet on (or unless you had some backdoor flush draw, which I also wouldn't bet on). Can't say is the assessment is correct unless you can correctly put someone on a hand. He can have nothing but a nut flush draw, who knows. But I take the cautious way out here, as there are many hands that can either beat you outright or can be heavily drawn to to beat you, and this is not a dry flop.

 

[GeoValentino]

i've learned over my years playin PLO, is not set over set, is set cracked my boats/flushes/st8s, yes set over sets may happen, but in my times, i've seen more boats : )

 

[Divebitch]

i've learned over my years playin PLO, is not set over set, is set cracked my boats/flushes/st8s, yes set over sets may happen, but in my times, i've seen more boats : )

Okay, but any boat will beat his. And for that to even happen, someone's already got an over set. So even if the board doesn't pair up, the set of 5s is vulnerable. And yes, the flush, yikes - especially on Full Tilt! Geo, where are you from? Looks like China, but...

 

[baudib1]

Bottom set, even middle set, is hardly worth playing at all on a board like this. If he has KQJ with 2 hearts, you're a big dog.