Originally Posted by flint
No the other 2 folded. What I meant is that when there are 3 players in the pot, does that mean that the chance that there is a over set increase to 3/10 from 1/10 (which it would be against one player). Im probably getting the maths wrong here, but I would like to know how likely the guy is to have a higher set when he pots it.
I put him on a range of two pair, big draw and maybe an over set (which he had although it doesn't really matter for the questions). The average stack was close to 4k so I was feeling some pressure to double up, so I decided that I am likely to be flipping - was this assessment correct?
Not sure what the odds
are. There are only 2 over sets possible. 3 players means 2 other
players, in which case there's roughly double the chance, or so it would seem to me. There is no way of knowing.
Okay, let's say villain has that top 2 pair and a flush draw (4 outs AATT, flush a flush draw 9 out. That's 13 x 2. He is slightly
ahead of that coin-flip. When you throw in the possibility of an overset, he wins hands down unless you see the case 5, which I would not bet on (or unless you had some backdoor flush draw, which I also wouldn't bet on). Can't say is the assessment is correct unless you can correctly put someone on a hand. He can have nothing but a nut flush draw, who knows. But I take the cautious way out here, as there are many hands that can either beat you outright or can be heavily drawn to to beat you, and this is not a dry flop.