Playing to win not survive!!!!!

Last night I was playing in a UB DS T and heard the dumbest thing I have evr heard just does not make sence to me..he told me he would fold AA preflop so he could make the money..How does that make any sence at all the only way that is reasonble o me is if there are 8 players allin preflop then ok maybe got a point..I look at this way I rather go out on the bubble with AA allin preflop or i am going to go deep and have a better ROI in the end..I am not no pro and would like to hear the comunity thoughts on this.On a side note i finished 13th going real deep profiting 400% of the byin..I just think people really dont have an idea about the diffwerence playing to win and just to survive!!

It depends how how big your stack is IMO

If it there multiplayer players allin(3+) then I might fold AA preflop. Other then that, I will call an allin everytime. Sounds kind of dum that the player would fold AA just to try and survive for the money.

Also how the payout structure is. I have seen this situation dozens of times in satellite tourneys where all place get paid the same and a bunch of people go allin with just a couple people til the bubble. I would fold there in a heartbeat, because even AA isn't a made hand, we've all seen it get beat.

With a small stack, unless you are dead zone low(less than 1BB) and smack dab on the bubble with a couple others already all-in, you should be pushing here as well so that you can get back in the running and make more than just barely over your buy-in. If you are extremely low to the point that going all-in probably won't even get you over 1.5BB to cover another orbit, then I would probably fold into the money so you at least get something, because even doubling up won't help you much here.

If you have a large stack and most of the other players are well below you, then you will want to push as well.

The medium stacks are where the problem can come in. You are sitting comfortable at around chip average and someone pushes in for 3/4 of your stack and 2 other players call behind them and there are say 3 places to go til the money. You no doubtedly have the best hand right now, but it is possible that one person has a hand like AK, killing one of your Aces for the set, and it is possible that another one of the players had a pocket pair as well like 88 that probably has more outs to a set than yours with all of the action in front of you. The point is, if you call here and lose, you will probably still make it into the money, but you will be crippled, whereas if you fold the AA, you will have better possible opportunities to get your money in with less interference.

The whole point of playing in a tournament is to win. You gotta take advantage of the moment at hand. People who focus only on cashing usually do not fare well. If at any point you have aces, reagardless of the situation, you gotta take a stand preflop. A lot of players are hyperaggressive near the bubble because they know people will fold decent starting hands to try to cash instead of taking a stand to accumulate chipsand put themselves in a better position.

Well, playing AA, KK big on the bubble is generally how I manage to bust on the bubble. Bust means I have played 2-5 hours and now have nothing to show for it at all, just because a big hand came along just in time to cause me trouble.

So, while I see your point, I am trying hard nowadays to not hurt myself right on the bubble. The only reasons I can find to play at this point is if 1) I have a monster stack and can easily afford to lose a few hands to small stacks (a rare situation for me) or 2) I have a very small stack and even the antes hurt, and there is a good chance I might not make the money anyway. I have not been successful at always convincing myself to fold AA here against a bigger stack, and this is the precise cause of my fairly regular busts on or just before the bubble. I am unhappy when this happens, not because I think AA cannot be beat and am furious about it, but because I just wasted all the work I had done to that point. On the whole, I think it should be an easy fold. Sadly, it is very hard.

You do what you want. I find I do better at accumulating a stack after the bubble has passed. I will likely get more good hands to play later. Also, I want to win, but I do not expect to win the game right at this point. I prefer to try to keep a stack slightly above average...preferably all the way to the final table. It can be hours more til the final table in a big tourney, and a huge stack mid-way does not guarantee making final table, let alone winning. A lot can happen in those hours. The biggest stacks at this point often go bust well before the last couple of tables.

yeah depends on 2 things
1. how much you need the money
2. how big your stack is

although you shouldnt be entering tourneys just to get back your investment plus a little more. you should always be playing to win. no guts no glory

ciukster said:

yeah depends on 2 things
1. how much you need the money

Click to expand...

Although I have done it myself, playing when you have to cash can't be a good thing and will only lead to a very stiff trigger finger when it comes to time to throw your chips in the pot.

I see a lot of players who espouse the play to win strategy. What they don't realize is that players who play to survive win too. We just change our game up near the end. I'm not saying I would always fold AA near the bubble. It depends on the table and how many people I think are going to call. If I don't think I can get fewer than 1-2 callers I might. I used to play a much more lag game and it didn't work for me. It wasn't suited for me. Now that I play first to cash and then to move up I win far more often and have a much higher roi than I did trying to accumulate a big stack and win or bust every tourney. I'm not saying it's the right way for everyone but it sure works well for me.

if i played to survive more id do much better i think... i bubble a lot big stack small stack doesnt matter

I've folded A/A in a double-or-nothing tournament, which is pretty much like a satellite.

Folding in an MTT is stack specific. Let's say you're in an MTT, the blinds are 150/300 blinds, and you were knocked down to 500 stack. With 100 people left to the money, you probably need to double up to make the bubble. But if there are only 2 or so people left until the bubble, you will cash 95% of the time by folding A/A when a couple people are all-in ahead of you.

So realistically in a $10 tournament you'll win $12, 95% of the time by folding, for an expected value of $11.76. (Really, in a really big MTT it's probably closer to 100%)

Now let's say that you shove in that latter situation. Someone UTG opens to 900 with K/Qh and gets a call by the maniac who has 5c/7c. It's folded to your button and you call with Ad/As. The blinds fold.

In this situation you're about 60:40 to win about 2,000 chips (due to antes). So you win $0 about 40% of the time, and more than triple-up 60% of the time.

The question is, is getting 2,000 chips 60% of the time (winning least $12, 60% of the time) better than folding and getting an almost guaranteed $12 payout?
By calling, you average a $7.32 payout and have 2,000 chips but folding gets you an average $11.76 and keeps you at 900 chips.

The thing is, the bubble of an MTT is not deep. The payout structure is really flat, and 2,000 chips with 150/300 blinds is has you at an M of 4.4, which still desperate.

So maybe if you win your 60%, you advance another two or three payout levels and make $14 or $15 instead of the $12. Those extra $2 or $3 aren't quite worth the risk. (60% of $15 = $9, while 98% of $12 was $11.76).

And what about those players on your left who folded in the latter situation? They had a good chance to knock you out, but folded. These are people who you may be able to steal from when you shove with your remaining $900 when the bubble breaks in (probably this hand).

Good way of putting it SP. That's what I was getting at, I just didn't have the mental patience the other day to go through all of the math

Penguin has got the idea perfectly here - I'll trust the maths is good.

I have no problem folding big pairs on the bubble in a MTT - though with AA there are going to have to be very specific circumstances. I hear a lot of the 'play to win, not just cash' philosophy as a justification for calling with a big PF hand in a multiway pot. The trouble I have with this is that you are often putting your tourney at stake on a coin flip - even AA as likely to lose as win against KK, 78s, 44 and that quadruple up, though pretty handy, doesn't guarantee anything. I am much happier picking up pots by outplaying people (because I think I'm good enough to do so) than risking my whole stack on a coin toss.

The thing about AA is that it is the hand you want against one other player but get into multiway action and you are praying it holds up since the best hand you are going to have at showdown is a pair of aces. You have to accept you aren't going to get straights and flushes that often with them.

OMG, its AA for cryin out loud! Just F*king call.

So to sum it up, it's about playing for the maximum expected return, not playing to win.

MTT's are top heavy, so you want a top seat, but if you don't have a realistic chance at a top finish then the risk does not equal the reward.

folding AA

I usually like to make it in the money and then play looser. That being said I don't think I would fold AA in this position. A lot of players try to pick up the blinds here. If only they would be smart enough to fold when you play back at them, instead of calling with their crap hand.

As SP very wisely explained, there ARE time when it's advisable to fold Aces on the bubble.
And I have done that when the circumstances deemed it necessary.

But I do play to win, and not just cash (not that cashing is a bad thing, lol)
so sometimes you need to take the proverbial bull by the horns and go for it.
Too often I watch the tables get extremely conservative waiting for the bubble to burst
and I have taken advantage of that on many occasions but be careful, you can' t do this in early position.

Just remember sometimes those Aces will get broken.
And being the bubble boy after 3-4-5 hours really sucks!

Savage Penguin, thanks for the detailed explanation.

AA before the flop only fold are happy with the Classification .. if not, I think they are the best companions for a raise! I know we get good pots with AA, but also lost .. and hoping that they will enough in my hands! lol

This thread keeps popping up in different forms. If you are middle stacked and 3 big stacks go all in and you have AA, I would call. Why? You are a favorite to quadruple up, making your stack gigantic, and theirs crushed.

You are 2nd biggest stack, deep stack and 2 smaller stacks are all in already. Call. You only get knocked out if the deepest stack beats you. And even if he does, he probably beats the smaller stacks, too. Which means you will be the 3rd eliminated person FROM THAT TABLE, that hand = still in the money.

You are deepest stack and 3 mid-stacks all in ahead. Easy call.

I see no point in folding. You can either go flying forward into a dominating chip lead, or suffer a bad beat from a donk shoving with Q8o.

And about the "lower pocket pair might make a set" that only happens 20% of the time on five cards. I'd be worried about 56s, which takes away your wheel-draw, as well as about a million combos for straight draws, and of course the potential flush.

The hand's not going to win every multiway pot, but if I were only dealt AA, I would raise every hand, and never fold it preflop, no matter what the action was, because preflop you're best.

If you can't play knowing you got your money in good, then you may be playing out of your BR. If you ever lay down your hand knowing you had 'the nuts' for that street, you are playing weak poker.

"I flopped the nut straight, but if a heart comes on the turn/river or the board pairs I lose. I'll fold." = wrong. You would be ecstatic to get your money in with JT on a board of AsKhQh. Even if your opponents have revaled their AdAc and Ah9h.

I can't agree with your last comment, Weregoat. In a cash game you are dead right as you are getting 60% to double your money - easy. But tournaments are about a whole different way of playing. Here's an admittedly unlikely situation that should illustrate that there are situations when folding best hand is the right thing to do:

You are on the button with a stack of one chip and get AA. The tourney is right on the bubble, antes at 20,blinds at 400 and two players ahead of you that have exactly the same stack both go all in. If you fold you are almost guaranteed a prize (95%+); if you call you are risking this prize for a stack of 14 chips at odds of 60% or so.

Ok, this is a bit extreme I admit, but I hope we can agree a fold is good here. What if your stack was five chips? 20? 100? 300? Obviously there comes a point that the call does make sense. A good tournament player will have a good idea of where that point is and know whether the double or triple up will actually add enough value to their stack to take the risk.

I used to be a survivalist. Did pretty well. Philosophy was get into the money and then start playing to win.

Lately I play to win pretty much from the start. I basically ignore any survival instincts and if I believe I have the best of it I am not fearful of putting opponents to the test. I will however be very cautious the first 4 or 5 orbits.


Guess which works better.:joyman:

I accept that surviving is important and you need to have some value for your time you played and money used in the game. But do think about it, what is the best hand you would go for it. Certainly i would say AA or KK, You cant expect more than these cards. If we say that i fold AA preflop and need to be paid atleast for my buyin. You can sitout and just watch the game, If cant even go for AA then what is need for playing????

If I was on the bubble I would definitely fold AA preflop if I am up against 2 or more people if I was short stack. No question about it. If I am the chip leader by many chips, I would not fold. If I am short stack against one person on the bubble with AA, then I would have to call. It really depends on how many people you are going up against and the position you rank in terms of chips. That is probably the most objective answer I can give when folding AA preflop.