Playing well or just cards running well?

C

Caesura

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Hi,
I've been playing sit n goes for the last few months and am slowly making a bit of money. The question is, is it me or am I just lucky with the cards?

I only play 50c or $1 games at the moment til I build my bankroll but recently my money has been growing. The biggest changes I have made is a) playing almost nit tight and b) finally understanding the importance of position.

My insecurities arise though because I win a few games then lose a few. If I lose a few I try to change my game and I lose quicker. I go back to my old ways and start winning again and it's like a circle.

I know I am a bit cowardly sometimes and rely on other people making mistakes, especially on the bubble but at low buy-ins the plays advocated in the books I read (Phil Gordon in particular) don't work, as players tend to call a lot.

If it works 60% of the time, is that luck or skill?
 
flatcaller

flatcaller

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Probably playing well. from experience if you play tight and know the basics you can make money. Your just not making an optimal amount that you could be making.
Hi,
I've been playing sit n goes for the last few months and am slowly making a bit of money. The question is, is it me or am I just lucky with the cards?

I only play 50c or $1 games at the moment til I build my bankroll but recently my money has been growing. The biggest changes I have made is a) playing almost nit tight and b) finally understanding the importance of position.

My insecurities arise though because I win a few games then lose a few. If I lose a few I try to change my game and I lose quicker. I go back to my old ways and start winning again and it's like a circle.

I know I am a bit cowardly sometimes and rely on other people making mistakes, especially on the bubble but at low buy-ins the plays advocated in the books I read (Phil Gordon in particular) don't work, as players tend to call a lot.

If it works 60% of the time, is that luck or skill?
 
nc_royals

nc_royals

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One of the great things about poker is that LAG's have bracelettes and NIT's have bracelettes. Find where your comfort zone is and play there. As you play more you will see your ranges broaden as your experience grows. You are right about people calling. In the cheap SnG's I have found that some people will see a flop no matter what the bet. But I believe the previous comment was right. Standard poker can be profitable in cheap games. Goodluck and welcome to CC.
 
C

Caesura

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Thanks for the responses, I'll keeping plugging away and hopefully make it up to the decent money tables in a month or two then start studying the next level of play.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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What's your sample size? Counting months isn't very helpful. The fewer tournaments you've played in a given time period, the greater the likelihood that your cumulative result is affected by normal variance. The more you've played, the greater the chances your results reflect your level of play relative to your opponents'.
 
C

Caesura

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Good point, this month I've played 145 sit n goes, mostly 50c to 1$
 
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DanziM

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Alot of literature theory isnt focussed onsuper micro stakes play. Poeple play microstakes because they can afford to lose, and the average guy will be playing microstakes.

You can use this to your advantage like playing positon, however ABC poker is probably your best bet. Play your better hands agressivly and bet for total value. Ensure that you dont bluff often and alot of the time you wont get rookies folding much, hence why only betting when you have something is going to win you money, not lose it.

20nl, possibly 25nl from my expereicne is where the game starts to improve slightly, however most books have games starting at 1/2. Bluffs and particular plays will work at these levels, its just the guy your doin it against is doin it back at ya!
 
Arjonius

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Good point, this month I've played 145 sit n goes, mostly 50c to 1$
That's a relatively small sample, so any conclusions you draw should be tentative. That said, what's your ROI? The higher it is, the less likely it is to be attributable to variance. For example, if it's 40%, you're probably a winning player, although possibly not at this rate. But if it's 5%, that could easily be a b/e or small losing player running a little above expectation during this sample.
 
C

Caesura

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According to Top Shark Pro I've got a 5% ROI, but then it says I've made a $10 profit in 90 days but it's more than 3 times that. Small money I know but I'm trying to grind out my bankroll properly
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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You should keep records of your play that enable you to know what your ROI actually is. It doesn't take much effort, even without PT / HEM. Third-party sites are not reliable enough since they don't capture all data from all sites.
 
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