Overthinking? Probably, but can I fold?

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ssbn743

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So this is that special time of year when the Heartland Poker Tour comes to Colorado and all the idiots decide that they can play poker because they’ve seen it on T.V…Sigh!

We are in a bonus cash tournament during the 2 week qualifying period. The blinds are 1K and 2K with no ante. All stacks involved in this hand have between than 60K and 70K with my stack as the exception; in fact I have the shortest stack with about 55K.

I’m in the big blind and there are three limpers, one from early position, one from middle-ish position, and the third from the cutoff. The small blind suddenly and unexpectedly goes all in; he has me covered by about 5K.

Now this next part is funny so pay attention! This guy has a flat shaped mercury stone for a card protector; basically, it’s a mirror. Up until now it has not been a problem; however, on this hand he moved the stone directly beneath his cards as he looked at his holdings. I very clearly saw A K in the stones’ reflection; the suits were harder to see and I wasn’t able to make them out (not that I was trying – it was a spur of the moment thing) but I was certain he had A K. Now you can bring all kinds of moral objections into this hand if you want to but this guy showed me his cards – what am I supposed to do; tell him?

I have 5 5 from the BB and now have a decision to make. I have three limpers in front and my thinking is that hand ranges Ax to Kx are more likely to be held by these opponents here; hands like K Q and A J are very likely possibilities. 5 5 versus A K is just a hair above 50/50 at best, so do I want to race here? My answer, normally, is no; but if I know I have an edge and at least 1 or 2 of his outs are burned I lean towards taking that edge. So after much deliberation I make the call for my entire stack. Then surprisingly the cutoff seat calls as well and shows 8 8. The eights hold up and both the SB and I are left walking.

Now this 8 8 call could only happen in the HPT qualifying period; like I said – a whole lot of very NOT good poker players show up in droves. But what I am having trouble with is the hand between the SB and myself in the BB. With my stack and situation, remember I saw the guys cards, is it right to race for my tourney life? This says nothing for the fact that some idiot will limp from late position with 8 8 and then call all his chips off into a three way pot either. I could fold here too I guess but I find that hard with the information I had; I don’t know, anyone?
 
youregoodmate

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Fold, no reason to race for your life. Although you dont expect any of the limpers to call.
 
ovitoo

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From my experience, when you kno there are bad players at the table I wouldn't put the limp call ai past anyone. Happens all the time and I always find myself asking "y the f*** did you limp if you were gonna call off your stack w/ that garbage?!"

So I would say with (3) limpers you should almost always lay it down, assuming it's still somewhat early on.
If you were close to money or itm already and you had a limp or two (maybe) from lp, then you couldn't folding knowing you're a slight fav to the ai. Otherwise you might as well burn the clock till you blind off.

You can't take down a mtt w/o winning a flip here and there so I guess it just depends on what stage of the tourny you're in. Also, a 28bb stack usually isn't do or die. You probably should have passed on it.
 
trucker103

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fold plenty of chips left
u said there was a lot of go getters in the tourney time to be patient !
 
Arjonius

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Given that you made no effort to see his cards, you did nothing wrong by seeing them. As for telling him or not, it's obvious which option represents the proverbial high road.

As for the hand, if you feel you're among the better players at the table, I'd lean toward folding. All or nothing poker is more attractive when you're at a skill disadvantage.
 
MediaBLITZ

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It does make it an interesting dynamic but with all that action still to follow (whose cards I haven;t seen :p ), I just don't like 55. I think I would rather continue with 25 BB. You are barely behind on a pretty even chip distribution and still have plenty of poker left in you. At $2k BB I would guess it is pretty far along and starting to get close to the bubble?

So this was not like a ME qualifier, right? Just a money bonus tourney? A qualifier I am way more on folding this.
 
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fold especially after you saw the ace king you still had plenty of chips to wait for a better hand and the blinds weren't big enough to were you couldn't lose a couple and still be fine
 
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No...We were well out of the money yet. These live tourneys with 30 minute levels and weak players get up to 5K 10K blinds before the bubble.

For the record I did tell this guy I saw his hand; but I did so after the hand was over – of course we were both walking by that point, but that’s as high as my morality will allow me to go – I will take every advantage my opponent will give me – and even then the only reason I would tell is because I have seen Karma come back to bite people.

The unlucky thing is that if I hadn’t seen his cards, it’s an automatic fold. But seeing his cards like I did creates the illusion of an edge – and maybe I did have an edge; I would have won if the 88 limper hadn’t called. (The 88 limper is another whole story and one that is probably the most frustrating in the world…WTF, 88?)

Also the blinds were going to be 2K 4K by the time I had the button; very quickly I was going to have 13BB. I still fold here 99% of the time, but with the circumstances involved in this specific hand, it becomes the 1%. This was certainly a borderline call, but not without scientific effort and a good line of thought, or so I thought – in the end it didn’t matter anyway because I was really playing Bingo.
 
ythelongface

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Minor derail.....just curious what your thoughts are on the HPT. Just found out it is coming to my local area(a casino (I thought had given up on poker for the most part) and was wondering what I might expect..Mostly bad players? Are the sattys worth playing? Ty for any info.
 
MediaBLITZ

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Minor derail.....just curious what your thoughts are on the HPT. Just found out it is coming to my local area(a casino (I thought had given up on poker for the most part) and was wondering what I might expect..Mostly bad players? Are the sattys worth playing? Ty for any info.
I only particpated in one and was very surprised it was mostly older (50's+) guys taking a shot.
 
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ssbn743

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Minor derail.....just curious what your thoughts are on the HPT. Just found out it is coming to my local area(a casino (I thought had given up on poker for the most part) and was wondering what I might expect..Mostly bad players? Are the sattys worth playing? Ty for any info.

I’m not really sure what to say about the HPT. I’ve played in the HPT 6 consecutive times here in Colorado and never made day 2. Now I have never claimed to be the best poker player, but there’s something about this tournament, I can’t quite put my finger on it, that doesn’t add up.

Naturally it plays tougher than your normal game, but I’ve had some of the most miraculous calls made against me – I mean ridiculous stuff that makes you go, huh? I’ve never done particularly well at the wsop either, but I have made day 2 more than a few times, and those field sizes were 10 times the HPT – there’s just something off on the HPT!

But play if you like; I wouldn’t waste my time with qualifiers or anything like that. Just play single table sit’n’go’s for the two weeks prior to the main event, build up the bankroll and direct buy into the main event – but I’m warning you, it’s just a matter of time before some dork with a backpack on his chair calls your all-in with 22 and draws the 4 card wheel out to win!
 
MediaBLITZ

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Hmmm - I did get taken out 8 off the bubble on a 3 outer. Yup - it's a set up ;)
 
ythelongface

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I only particpated in one and was very surprised it was mostly older (50's+) guys taking a shot.

As fate would have it, thats is a large percentage of the regulars at this casino...Im in my 40s so I wont feel like the old man.:cool: Figure I may try to dabble a bit and see what happens.

I’m not really sure what to say about the HPT. I’ve played in the HPT 6 consecutive times here in Colorado and never made day 2. Now I have never claimed to be the best poker player, but there’s something about this tournament, I can’t quite put my finger on it, that doesn’t add up.

Naturally it plays tougher than your normal game, but I’ve had some of the most miraculous calls made against me – I mean ridiculous stuff that makes you go, huh? I’ve never done particularly well at the WSOP either, but I have made day 2 more than a few times, and those field sizes were 10 times the HPT – there’s just something off on the HPT!

But play if you like; I wouldn’t waste my time with qualifiers or anything like that. Just play single table sit’n’go’s for the two weeks prior to the main event, build up the bankroll and direct buy into the main event – but I’m warning you, it’s just a matter of time before some dork with a backpack on his chair calls your all-in with 22 and draws the 4 card wheel out to win!

I dont know.. the sattys pay two seats out of 10 which is similar to a shootout which I have played live with moderate success in the past.. What is it about the sattys you think is not worth the time. Is it just the cost of the buyin compared to the cost of just entering or something else?
 
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Call, not close. Folding is horrible.
 
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If you were last to act it is a snap call. With 3 limpers I wouldn't put the limp AI past any of them. People limp PP and snap off all the time.
 
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If you were last to act it is a snap call. With 3 limpers I wouldn't put the limp AI past any of them. People limp PP and snap off all the time.

Yeah but 88 snap off? Really? But you’re right, I still think the call is right though but it’s not as easy as suggested by some.
 
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As fate would have it, thats is a large percentage of the regulars at this casino...Im in my 40s so I wont feel like the old man. Figure I may try to dabble a bit and see what happens.

I dont know.. the sattys pay two seats out of 10 which is similar to a shootout which I have played live with moderate success in the past.. What is it about the sattys you think is not worth the time. Is it just the cost of the buyin compared to the cost of just entering or something else?

The satty’s are fine, but they typically take about twelve hours and cost 25% of a direct buy. You can probably play 10 sit’n’go’s in the same period of time at $120 apiece. The top three pay $360 each, so for a $1200 investment a 50% success rate results in a $600 profit. I was 17/20 the last time, which, admittedly is a real good run, but above 50% should not be difficult.
 
pfb8888

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what did it cost to get in? if it was a freeroll then you have to expect people playing looser....last to act call...or else fold
 
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what did it cost to get in? if it was a freeroll then you have to expect people playing looser....last to act call...or else fold

This was a live, non-qualifier, bonus tournament during the HPT qualifying period; it was $210 to enter.

I’m still fine with my call here – I really think it was the right play. I understand the dynamic of the weak players and the limp call all-in, but with two all-ins in front I would bet that over the long haul I get the fold more times than the call.

That fact makes the limpers presence in the pot inconsequential to my decision. Obviously in this case it backfired but most of the time I only have to play the A K.

So the question remains, race or not? There’s no question that this was certainly borderline at best, but with levels increasing, stack sizes, and even considering weak players (who could call all-in into two stacks with 88), I think the call was justified and just end up shaking my head as I calmly walk away!
 
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