Opinion: Micro stake players face HIGHER Variance than mid-stakes and higher

#1 March 11th, 2020, 12:07 AM

This is only an observation - not fact, but I tend to believe micro stake players face a higher degree of variance than players who are playing higher stakes.

My reasoning is simple and might be overlooking several variables, so I'm looking for a discussion of different viewpoints on this topic.

What drove me to think about this - and ultimately come here to see what others think - is 3 exceptionally terribly bad plays I see so often at the micro level. First - 50+ bb preflop shoves. Does this happen at higher stakes?
First in the pot - F-it! shove 100bb. See if anyone will call my pocket pair. I'll just rebuy if I loose.
Second - the exceptionally terrible hand range selection/position from players down here at the toe bleed stakes, and the number of times I see a premium hand get called down by players with a crappy rag Ace. Doesn't matter what the chip depths are, position, action before the call, preflop shove, 4bet pre, or re-raise on any street representing a strong made hand.
The call down with a crap rag ace is prevalent at the micro level at all stages, all chip stack depths and any position.
At higher stakes, a lot of variables go into making a call with a crappy ace A/2 - A/9.
At the micros - it seems - "I got an ACE call/shove!!!" - seems to be the extent of thought.
At least that is until later in events when there are less terrible players, a higher concentration of 'better' players, shortys are shoving, position is considered, and big stacks are able and obliged to call down lighter.

I see tight lay downs all the time when watching higher stakes. At the micros - it's wild west at the start of EVERY tourney. This equates to a higher variance for all the players - having to endure this crazy action, and dodging the ever present player who thinks their crap Ace is the best hand to call down another players preflop 3-4bet.
Almost makes me consider limping entire range as a worthy strategy. Almost -

There is also the - shaking head as I type - player who thinks any 2 suited from any position is a good strategy. I rarely see this at higher stakes. At the micros - this kind of play goes on nearly every other hand. Q/5 suited from UTG+1 - heck yeah! J/4 suited from MP - let limp this see where it goes. 6/3 s from UTG - oh baby! Luckily the flush doesn't come in but about 75% of the time - so hell! Maybe I'll incorporate this exceptionally terrible play into my game. Opinion: Micro stake players face HIGHER Variance than mid-stakes and higher

Opinion: Micro stake players face HIGHER Variance than mid-stakes and higher

Don't get me wrong, A LOT of times I benefit from these - loose - players - however - I'd say I'm probably only 50/50 vs the A rag call down - and to be honest - it gets quite old playing solid and getting KKs or AA even - and getting crushed by A/rag that lucks into a straight or two pair so often.

All views welcome on this topic.

#2 March 11th, 2020, 2:21 AM

While partially true people play better and tighter starting ranges on average higher the buy in,
Still at higher stakes people play all types of crazy week 1 task 1.JPG

#3 March 11th, 2020, 5:00 AM

We should first try to define what variance means in poker?
Can we say that making our way to ITM represents the medium, winning the tournament is in the other end of the scale, and simply losing without any money is in the other end of variance?

The factor of luck in low- and high-stakes is the same. If we have two players, one who plays at micro stakes and who's skill level is no worse or better that his peers, and another who's skill level is at the same level with other high-stakes players, can we truly make an assumption that the player who plays at high-stakes finishes more often in ITM?

At least that is the way how I understood your hypothesis.

#4 March 11th, 2020, 5:49 AM

Variance is higher in loose games, because the average pot size is bigger. It has nothing to do with the size of the buyin. Some micro games play loose, but others like Zoom actually play very tight.

#5 March 11th, 2020, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by fundiver199

Variance is higher in loose games, because the average pot size is bigger. It has nothing to do with the size of the buyin. Some micro games play loose, but others like Zoom actually play very tight.

It cannot be defined better than this. I see bad players at ALL levels - and anything above an $11 buy in is coming from watching streams and not personal experience. I've seen some guys in $109s just punt stacks for no reason, it's crazy.

Anyhow, yeah at the lower buy ins I would say there are more bad/loose players than there are in the $11 games, and as you move up in stakes you will find more and more good players in the pool - but we are never rid of alllll of the bad ones. We need those guys to keep chasing their Hope's and dreams and netting a lucky win once in a while!

#6 March 11th, 2020, 4:11 PM

Originally Posted by hugh blair

bigger buy ins = bigger swings and more variance in my opinion.
for example you had a $1000 bankroll on a poker site what would variance affect more with that roll?
Playing 500 x $2 games or 5 x $200 games?
Nasty hands happen easily at those stakes getting it in huge favourite preflop dodge those 2 outs. Opinion: Micro stake players face HIGHER Variance than mid-stakes and higher

I see your point - and find interest in the element that bigger buy-ins equate to bigger swings, although wouldn't playing with-in strict BRM cause this variance to equalize?

Originally Posted by Nafor

We should first try to define what variance means in poker?
Can we say that making our way to ITM represents the medium, winning the tournament is in the other end of the scale, and simply losing without any money is in the other end of variance?
The factor of luck in low- and high-stakes is the same. If we have two players, one who plays at micro stakes and who's skill level is no worse or better that his peers, and another who's skill level is at the same level with other high-stakes players, can we truly make an assumption that the player who plays at high-stakes finishes more often in ITM?
At least that is the way how I understood your hypothesis.

No - I don't think we can make that assumption Nafor. However with more - lets say gamblers - at low stakes it would seem to me the variance increases, because there are more people chasing per hand, increasing pot sizes, and hypothetically causing premium starting hands to loose more often. More players in a pot, more likelihood that someone will spike 2 pair, trips or better to beat a better starting hand.
I guess I'm talking about single hand variance - rather than ITM variance.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

Variance is higher in loose games, because the average pot size is bigger. It has nothing to do with the size of the buyin. Some micro games play loose, but others like Zoom actually play very tight.

Originally Posted by Jon Poker

It cannot be defined better than this. I see bad players at ALL levels - and anything above an $11 buy in is coming from watching streams and not personal experience. I've seen some guys in $109s just punt stacks for no reason, it's crazy.

Anyhow, yeah at the lower buy ins I would say there are more bad/loose players than there are in the $11 games, and as you move up in stakes you will find more and more good players in the pool - but we are never rid of alllll of the bad ones. We need those guys to keep chasing their Hope's and dreams and netting a lucky win once in a while!

Yeah - I've never seen a tight game at the micro level, even playing zoom, which I shy away from because it's nothing much more than a cooler fest - from the limited experience I have. AA beat by set of 777s, KK beat by a set of 444s, flush draws shoved on the flop, 3bet JJs hit a set on the river to beat top two. #rigged. Opinion: Micro stake players face HIGHER Variance than mid-stakes and higher

Assuming more players risking chips to see a flop and chasing, getting to show down on average at lower stakes compared to higher stakes, variance is higher. However - you cleared up what I was trying to say nicely.
A higher degree of variance will be experienced in looser games, regardless of the buyin.

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Opinion: Micro stake players face HIGHER Variance than mid-stakes and higher

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