Nut flush draw and 2 over cards to the board

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onnu85

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Hi Guys,
I just busted out of wsop main event in los angeles with the following hand and I wanted to get your input on the play.
Blinds are 100-200 no ante yet. My stack is about 8.5k and the villain stack is about 35k
I opened UTG+2 with AcQc to 425 and villain at the cutoff 3 bet to 1025. both blinds folded
I decided to flat call and see a flop without getting all my money in pre flop.
The flop came 8c 6c 4d. I checked to the villain and he bet 2000 to the pot, which is about pot size bet and pretty big for a MTT. I thinking he either have AK or a hand like 10 10 JJ, and he just want to pick the pot right there. I decided to shove my remaining 7.5k. My thought process was that if I only call the pot would be about 6k and I would only have 5.5k behind, I might AK to fold and that I'm a slight favorite against 1010 JJ. He called me with AK, turn and river came blank and I busted :/
I'm thinking now that maybe I should have led the flop for about half pot (1k), and another bet on the flop if he only flat calls me on the flop. That way I could have gathered more information without risking my entire stack.
What do you think was the right play?
 
firstcrack

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While the percentages seemed okay, they weren't great in actuality, as you soon wisely suspected, so two cardinal sins for me, from what I can see. First, I don't like to get into big pots early with A Q. Tough to play post flop. The 3 Bet of five times the BB would have probably been enough to get me off of A Q (suited or not), with 40+ BBs left. Second, I do not like to go broke on a drawing hand, especially, when I am only a slight favorite, or maybe slight dog, in this case. I prefer to wait for a better opportunity. And in your case, if you put him on A K as a possible hand, which you did, there went your original post flop assessment that you had the advantage, as an Ace was no help to you. You still had the nine plus three, or 12 outs, but this is not enough to risk all your chips here, IMHO. If he had the 10s or similar hand, then you had fifteen outs and your percentages are actually pretty good, maybe 60-40-ish, but the pre-flop raise feels more like A K to me, here.

Now, as far as whether a post flop bet would have helped, maybe so. A defensive bet may have helped you figure out where you stood as you speculated. If he had called your bet after the flop I bet you could have gotten out of the hand on the turn. Or maybe fire another barrel after the turn depending on your read of the opponent.
 
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Sounds like you didn't have a read or feel as to how the villain was playing.
Given that and the stack sizes you should have stick it in on the flop as you did.
Me personally I don't like flatting oop with big aces, a 4bet for around 3.5k probably is what I would do. Given the table positions this would look really strong and give a chance at a fold once table image is solid.
 
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onnu85

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post flop play that sop

I appreciate the input guys.
So firstcrack, you suggest folding AQ suited to a single 3 bet from the cutoff pre flop?
Along with with blindes there's close to 1700 in the pot and i only have to call 600 more to see a flop.
I thought that the hand that I'm a slight underdog against (AK) might fold if I shove on him.
How would you play it on the flop?
Sound like you guys have 2 different opinions here for the play.
Joeisi, I'm pretty much pot committed with my stack size if I 4 bet to 3500. I think it's a bad spot to be at with AQ. I think that with 20 bb or less I would prob done that
 
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ph_il

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I think flatting the 3bet OOP is fine with 40BBs. You're getting just under 3:1 to see a flop.

Post flop, that's a board I definitely lead out on with the intention of getting it all in if I get raised or on the turn if I get called. I'm donk betting about 60-70% of the pot. It's not a board that hits 3bet preflop a lot, so there is a good chance you take it down uncontested. Even as a draw, your hand is just too strong. Is the range you put your opponent on only 3 hands? I'd probably widen it. He does have a huge stack, so his 3bet range could be a little bigger.

I think your check/shove is fine as well as a semi bluff. I definitely think taking the aggressive route is better in this situation. Just unlucky that it didn't work out.
 
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onnu85

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From the hands he played that got to showdown he had pretty strong holdings when he 3 bet pre flop.
I think you are right. If I lead on the flop then I can also represent the 1010 or JJ myself, and with AK it would have been difficult for him to call another bet on the turn either way unless ace or king pills off.
If I lead out on the flop and he 3bet me I think I need to get it all in anyway at this point
Do you think his call to my shove was correct? I think it might be since there's about 11k in the pot and he only have to call 5.5k more, if he puts me on a draw then he is getting the right price, especially when he have about 35k behind so he doesnt risk a whole lot of his stack
Just a bummer I busted so quickly since I won a 7 hour satellite the night before and it's a big tourney
 
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ph_il

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One thing I didn't consider is how fast blinds increase. I play online so, blinds go up fast, usually every 10 min. So, I like to play a little fast in these situations since 40 BBs can get cut in half in 2 rounds.

If you're playing a game with long blinds, you don't necessarily have to play as fast. I'd still lead out on flop but might fold to 3bet if I'll still be sitting on ~30BBs for a while and think I can find a better spot. However, I also don't hate getting it in on a draw either. Against an opponent who has been 3betting with strong hands, I might lean towards fold vs a flop 3bet.
 
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Well played, you can get your opponent to fold AK and even if he has aces you are like 37% to win.
 
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onnu85

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In retrospect, I would have rather play small ball and not flip with 38BB left. What I did is probably the correct play with 20BB or less. Gonna play the mega millions today at the bike. Hopefully would redeem myself :)
 
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The distribution is similar to the game of freeroll "Open skill League":
1. 3-bet size was a very small.
2. Flop Pot bet size after the preflop opponent portrayed AA.
3. 3-bet on the flop, saying to your opponent that you have nothing. (Considering the fact that in reality you have nothing)
4. All-in with air and the bet size which gives a good chance to call to opponent with any overcards.
 
StayFocused14

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I think I like your play here. Its a tough spot for sure. I def agree with flatting the 3 bet preflop for sure.

Its the flop, out of pos. you need to take aggression in my opinion. Given his range and your perceived flatting range that flop is golden opportunity to lead out 3/4 pot obv ready to get it all in if he 3 bets. But leading out pretty strong would def represent something you are willing to go all in with and leaves him asking himself if he want to play for the remainder of your stack right on the flop. Checking here is weak and makes his C bet way too easy and your under represented. Thats at least how I feel there. Def not folding to that size 3 bet pre. Also, what hands can he possibly jam you with after a strong out of pos lead. best he can do on flop is flat. then blank peels and your sticking it all in. Hes throwing that away Id hope at that point. that totally is looking like 10 10 J J. Just My thoughts...
 
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karl coakley

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Lets see, 8.5k, 100/200 blinds, AQs UTG +2, a 3bet = FOLD.

Don't let anyone lie to you. It was a horrible play that just got worse with your shove (people who chase flushes take buses).

I play a lot of live and understand that you sit for long periods with getting trash and AQs looks great, but you didn't need to play a hand let alone AQ for all your chips.
 
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ph_il

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Lets see, 8.5k, 100/200 blinds, AQs UTG +2, a 3bet = FOLD.

Don't let anyone lie to you. It was a horrible play that just got worse with your shove (people who chase flushes take buses).

I play a lot of live and understand that you sit for long periods with getting trash and AQs looks great, but you didn't need to play a hand let alone AQ for all your chips.
Fold to a 3bet getting ~2.9:1 odds to see a flop with a decent hand?

OP didn't chase, they shoved. That's different.

If we give villain a tight 3bet range of 3.4% or 99+, A10s+, AKo OP is a slight favorite to win by the river if called at 55%. Even if we tighten that range to 2.7% or 1010+, AKs, AKo, OP is only a slight underdog at 48%.

Since OP shoved, they have fold equity as well. So, their chance of winning increases slightly.

In the end OP got their money in good or as a very slight underdog. Given villain's stack, I'd think their 3bet range might be slightly larger than 2.7%.

Some might say it's a risky play with 40 BBs, but I don't think it's terrible.
 
bahajan

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Lets see, 8.5k, 100/200 blinds, AQs UTG +2, a 3bet = FOLD.

Don't let anyone lie to you. It was a horrible play that just got worse with your shove (people who chase flushes take buses).

I play a lot of live and understand that you sit for long periods with getting trash and AQs looks great, but you didn't need to play a hand let alone AQ for all your chips.
.I agree with you, on an extent of debt time to receive one garbage, AD look adequately, but UTG2 position really it was necessary to do Fold
 
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onnu85

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Thank you for all your comments. Always good to hear different opinions to a play. I've redeemed myself (mentally) by making it to day 2 of the mega millions event (10% qualify) so I feel better anyway :).
First session of that tourney I busted with a boat over boat. I wonder if any of you could have got away from my hand.
Third level (75-150 blinds) Limped pot of 4 players including myself. stacks are around 20k of all players. I have pocket 4c4d and I'm in between the 2 players that are in the hand.
flop comes Ks10c4s. BB check, UTG+1 check, I check and the cutoff bet 700 to 600 pot. BB folds UTG+1 call and I raise it to 3000$. The logic behind such a big raise is that in specifically in those tourneys a lot of players would pay almost any amount on a draw and I want to build the pot from the start. I still have 100BB behind if a spade comes on the turn, so I can get away from the hand pretty easily.
The original raiser call, and UTG+1 call.
Turn comes a king, it's check to me, and at this point I decided to check because I want the players to think I was bluffing on a draw, or to let them get there (str8 or flush). The cut off now bet to the pot 8k, UTG+1 fold and I go all in for 15k. I get a snap call, cutoff had K10 for a better full house. Could you get away from it?
The way the hand played I would never put him on that hand. I think that a bet on his side on the turn is a bad play since he have the absolute nuts.
What do you think?
 
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karl coakley

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Fold to a 3bet getting ~2.9:1 odds to see a flop with a decent hand?

OP didn't chase, they shoved. That's different.

If we give villain a tight 3bet range of 3.4% or 99+, A10s+, AKo OP is a slight favorite to win by the river if called at 55%. Even if we tighten that range to 2.7% or 1010+, AKs, AKo, OP is only a slight underdog at 48%.

Since OP shoved, they have fold equity as well. So, their chance of winning increases slightly.

In the end OP got their money in good or as a very slight underdog. Given villain's stack, I'd think their 3bet range might be slightly larger than 2.7%.

Some might say it's a risky play with 40 BBs, but I don't think it's terrible.

The real problem with the hand and your math is what is there to win in the pot???? 300 chips with no antes. Just no reason to be in the hand behind. Its a bad play....
 
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ph_il

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The real problem with the hand and your math is what is there to win in the pot???? 300 chips with no antes. Just no reason to be in the hand behind. Its a bad play....
Seems a bit nitty to fold, but maybe that's me. Different play styles.

Also, I play online so blind time is probably different. 10 min blinds online isn't long at all, especially with 40 BB. Live might be different with longer blinds, but it would depend on how many hands/blind level you see. If you can still see a lot of hands in current blinds, I don't fault folding preflop.
 
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My thought process was that if I only call the pot would be about 6k and I would only have 5.5k behind, I might AK to fold and that I'm a slight favorite against 1010 JJ.

I think, with the big boom of "poker education", people get lost in trying to find some sort of edge and forget that poker is game of chance and luck. You read his hand dead on, calculated that you were ahead and put all your money in at a time when he was most likely to call. The only thing that would have won the hand for you was if the cards came out differently.

If I were you, I would have asked myself after the flop if I'm willing to gamble my tournament life on the draw. If not, I fold to the 2k bet. If I'm feeling lucky, I shove it. I wouldn't even bother trying to read villain's hand because I'm so short-stacked that it's either hit the board or go home. I think I could sleep at night if I decided to take the gamble and lost to AK with no nut draw and an ace on the river.
 
StayFocused14

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Thank you for all your comments. Always good to hear different opinions to a play. I've redeemed myself (mentally) by making it to day 2 of the mega millions event (10% qualify) so I feel better anyway :).
First session of that tourney I busted with a boat over boat. I wonder if any of you could have got away from my hand.
Third level (75-150 blinds) Limped pot of 4 players including myself. stacks are around 20k of all players. I have pocket 4c4d and I'm in between the 2 players that are in the hand.
flop comes Ks10c4s. BB check, UTG+1 check, I check and the cutoff bet 700 to 600 pot. BB folds UTG+1 call and I raise it to 3000$. The logic behind such a big raise is that in specifically in those tourneys a lot of players would pay almost any amount on a draw and I want to build the pot from the start. I still have 100BB behind if a spade comes on the turn, so I can get away from the hand pretty easily.
The original raiser call, and UTG+1 call.
Turn comes a king, it's check to me, and at this point I decided to check because I want the players to think I was bluffing on a draw, or to let them get there (str8 or flush). The cut off now bet to the pot 8k, UTG+1 fold and I go all in for 15k. I get a snap call, cutoff had K10 for a better full house. Could you get away from it?
The way the hand played I would never put him on that hand. I think that a bet on his side on the turn is a bad play since he have the absolute nuts.
What do you think?



if you play your set like this, its leaving you with less info. online and in most tourny situations, three handed, 2 clubs out. dont go for the check/r. lead out. he raises your bet on flop you jam with the best of it. make him pay for his K on turn. obv theres not many ways you could have won this hand. but in the long run i think slow playing is not good. leaves you blind in the hand and lets cheap cards come. we cant always win tho. Ive played this same situation same as you many times. most the time it can pay off big.
 
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I think, with the big boom of "poker education", people get lost in trying to find some sort of edge and forget that poker is game of chance and luck. You read his hand dead on, calculated that you were ahead and put all your money in at a time when he was most likely to call. The only thing that would have won the hand for you was if the cards came out differently.

If I were you, I would have asked myself after the flop if I'm willing to gamble my tournament life on the draw. If not, I fold to the 2k bet. If I'm feeling lucky, I shove it. I wouldn't even bother trying to read villain's hand because I'm so short-stacked that it's either hit the board or go home. I think I could sleep at night if I decided to take the gamble and lost to AK with no nut draw and an ace on the river.

I have two ways to play flushdraws and straightdraws, first of all i check my outs, if u had 2 ways straight draw ( open) and flush draws u had 62% favourite, but u had only 9 outs... so it's risky but i play the same like u :)
 
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