Now a lot of people use ICM late on, how to combat it.....

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Nooneinparticular

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Hi all
So, quickly about me and what I play. I'm a profitable SNG Hyper tourny player. I play $30 or $60 buyin, sometimes up to $100, depending on my mood and bank roll. I make money almost all the time, with only small losses when variance goes against me.
I work in the gambling industry and design slot games and slot game maths, so have a deep understanding of probabilities, +EV, -EV, ICM, equilibrium theory and so on. I've read and understood things like raisers edge and so on, so I know what I'm doing. I dont play Pro as I find it very hard work and enjoy my work.
So, now to the point of the thread.
6 seated SNG Hypers I play pay top 2, and are by definition aggressive. Short 500 starting stack, a tourny lasts around 8 to 10 minutes.
Now, only at the $60 range, it is obvious that a group of players (including me) are using ICM for the late stages. Now ICM is widespread and quite a lot of people know about it and have their game finely tuned these games become a simple one with 3 players left on the cash bubble. It literally becomes a game where the button pushes with any 2 cards, as someone will need a great hand at least to call using ICM, something like 77+ AJo++, and that might be a bit wide.
So, because everyone does the same, there is no skill or poker being played, and it becomes a luckfest on who gets 1010 on the button and walks into AK or JJ, or A10o vs QQ, and so on.
So, I have been looking for a solution which will beat this situation, and have found one of sorts, but it massively increases variance, and under ICM it is incorrect.
So, the question is, is it time to move on from ICM and adapt to something else, after all, the beauty of poker is to always adapt and change. Those people who sit and wait for QQ/KK/AA/AK now lose, but can't seem to understand why, or to adapt.
Lets see what this sparks, could be an interesting thread.....
enjoy.
 
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WiZZiM

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You can try these things in turbo or normal games, it becomes increasingly harder to move away from ICM when stacks are so short.

The only real way to beat them in hypers is to shove/fold better and more consistant than anyone at that level, controlling tilt, managing money, putting in long hours etc.

If you played normal or turbo games then hell yeah, theres a bunch of fun stuff you can do to regs and use ICM against them. But theres also a bunch of players (probably more now) that will actually know what you are doing and counter it too, so you have to be careful. Others will play a pretty much perfect nash game and it's almost impossible to really take advantage of them.

What i would reccomend is if you want to try new things, move down to a lower level and experiment. There is a big jump in skill level between the 16's and above, but you will have less variance whilst you experiment.
 
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BlueNowhere

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Hi all
So, quickly about me and what I play. I'm a profitable SNG Hyper tourny player. I play $30 or $60 buyin, sometimes up to $100, depending on my mood and bank roll. I make money almost all the time, with only small losses when variance goes against me.
I work in the gambling industry and design slot games and slot game maths, so have a deep understanding of probabilities, +EV, -EV, ICM, equilibrium theory and so on. I've read and understood things like raisers edge and so on, so I know what I'm doing. I dont play Pro as I find it very hard work and enjoy my work.
So, now to the point of the thread.
6 seated SNG Hypers I play pay top 2, and are by definition aggressive. Short 500 starting stack, a tourny lasts around 8 to 10 minutes.
Now, only at the $60 range, it is obvious that a group of players (including me) are using ICM for the late stages. Now ICM is widespread and quite a lot of people know about it and have their game finely tuned these games become a simple one with 3 players left on the cash bubble. It literally becomes a game where the button pushes with any 2 cards, as someone will need a great hand at least to call using ICM, something like 77+ AJo++, and that might be a bit wide.
So, because everyone does the same, there is no skill or poker being played, and it becomes a luckfest on who gets 1010 on the button and walks into AK or JJ, or A10o vs QQ, and so on.
So, I have been looking for a solution which will beat this situation, and have found one of sorts, but it massively increases variance, and under ICM it is incorrect.
So, the question is, is it time to move on from ICM and adapt to something else, after all, the beauty of poker is to always adapt and change. Those people who sit and wait for QQ/KK/AA/AK now lose, but can't seem to understand why, or to adapt.
Lets see what this sparks, could be an interesting thread.....
enjoy.

The bit highlighted leads me to believe you are lying. Post SS graph for 6-max hypers with a decent sample size and little variance at $30s+.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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hyper turbos have little variance.. right.

[ ] deep understanding.
 
Ducky7

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Campbell92...

[ ] knows anything about poker :)

(so dont listen to him) :D
 
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Colbefc

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Well the only thing I will say is I am 59, have played poker for 40+ years and have NEVER met an honest poker player who makes money most of the time, so congrats, you are one of a kind or as BlueNowhere says your a lier, I very rarely say that about anyone, but your whole post smells of BS to me.
You dont want to be a pro cos it seems like hard work but you win almost all the time? Yea sure :withstupi
Having read your post again none of it makes no sense to me, but maybe you are just ahead of your time or more likely escaped from your institution:eek:
I might be misjudging you and if I am I apologise but as Blue says post your stats please???
 
naruto_miu

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Well the only thing I will say is I am 59, have played poker for 40+ years and have NEVER met an honest poker player who makes money most of the time, so congrats, you are one of a kind or as BlueNowhere says your a lier, I very rarely say that about anyone, but your whole post smells of BS to me.
You dont want to be a pro cos it seems like hard work but you win almost all the time? Yea sure :withstupi
Having read your post again none of it makes no sense to me, but maybe you are just ahead of your time or more likely escaped from your institution:eek:
I might be misjudging you and if I am I apologise but as Blue says post your stats please???


The bit highlighted just had me dying of laughter...
 
acky100

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Give the guy a break you pricks!
 
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WiZZiM

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wtf guys? who cares if he is bending the truth, he is a new member asking a question. If he's lying, he's only affecting his own game. Why do these threads need to turn into this is beyond me. we all know nothing about the game, that's why we are here and not making millions of dollars playing online.
 
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Big_Rudy

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Yeah don't know WTF is going on with all the negativity itt so far. Is it really inconceivable to everybody that someone could actually regularly win at Hyper SnGs? The varience bit? Don't know what to think about that, but I'm willing to give the guy a chance to explain/elaborate. I was really hoping that this thread might produce some "outside the box" thinking beyond the typical ICM discussions that usually seem to be the be all/ end all of anyone wanting to discuss SnGs. Foolish me:( .
 
cardriverx

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agreed -- sure dude probably isnt regularly cashing hyper turbo SNGs and may have a relatively small sample size and/or is exaggerating, but he could def be profitable.

But that's not even what the thread's about -- it's asking a question about ICM and he seems like he knows his shit. Me, knowing not much about SNGs would have little to say on the matter, but would be interested. Wizzim's comment seems to answer his question but I am sure there's other opinions.
 
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Big_Rudy

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Yeah, that's about where I'm at too. I'm not an ICM expert by any means and I play so low $2-$5 SnGs that the vast majority of players probably aren't using it anyway, but I'm always looking for new ideas.
 
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Nooneinparticular

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I knew when I posted this that there would be a ton of doubters, but just ignore them. They can't believe people make money as they don't, when the reality is they are just not very good, not just "unlucky". So, ignored, all of it. But that said, playerscope (my current fave) tracks me as $3782 in profit in the last 30 days, running 38.72% ITM. No, Im not going to say who I am on stars as I dont want people to know what Im thinking in case they happen to read this.
Only going to answer this "Well the only thing I will say is I am 59, have played poker for 40+ years and have NEVER met an honest poker player who makes money most of the time, so congrats, you are one of a kind or as BlueNowhere says your a lier, I very rarely say that about anyone, but your whole post smells of BS to me." You've played for 40 years plus but think no one wins? lmfao. you are a donkey. my ITM stat regulary hits 42/43%, and I see people far better than I am playing at least 10 tables at once. Just because you arent intelligent enough to comprehend what I'm talking about doesn't mean it isnt true. What a mug. Can I play you all the time? If anyone feels the need to flame people on a public forum you should probably be thinking about your own game and why you 1. lose but 2. tell people you win. I see it all the time, people saying they have a system for roulette for example and they always win. newsflash, there is not a system for roulette, it is mathmatically impossible to win. Any bet you place, regardless of what it is, will result in the long run in you losing 2.7% of your money. End of story. I see some genuinely hideous play, like the player yesterday who called all in with A10o when UTG had min raised, UTG+1 had pushed, UTG+2 had called the all in. So a min raise and 2 all ins and you think A10 is good? If you think it is, you need to stop playing.

42 is the answer to life the universe and everything.
Do people still use sharkscope? its horrifically outdated and outperformed by other sites and HUDs.
The thread is designed to spark an intelligent debate. Whoever said drop down, it can't be done, players down at even $15 don't use ICM, so you can't try anything against it.
Watch a hyper SNG which has people like MaxRipper, Olddirtydonk, Alexysa, daddyrnac, Quadchrazs and wait until 3 of them get the bubble, then see what happens...... Those 5 are good players who know all about ICM and how to use it. there are other, but Quadchrazs is one of the very best I've ever come across.

To play poker you need to keep an open mind, and always understand that anyone can learn, even the top pro's. The game is always evolving. 7 years ago it was so so easy to win, now it's very difficult......
 
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buster999

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What is your new strategy you are thinking about? Do you currently shove on the button with aTc 3 -handed? Do you ever make call downs with k high? Most time on bubble effective stack size+starting hand is used for icm calculations. The one who waits for a good hand usually loses.
 
dj11

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Ummmmm......Ok???????:confused:

Well it is the ultimate answer to the ultimate question. Which universe do you live in?:cool:

My frivolous point was that it is a very broad question and the answer is complex.

While ICM, can help make decisions, it, like pot odds, and every other poker stat and all the professional poker advice can not be the things that make the decisions, they can only be factors used to make the decisions. You/we are not robots. I too have a method I think works against ICM thinking in the very late stages and no I won't share it.:confused: I do not play many of the short super turbo's OP does, but really, in the late stages of any tourney, turbo or not, the play will fundementally be very similar.

Lots about the op here suggests the poster is thinking tight is the same as ICM. From his resume' I doubt that was really his intent, but it does sort of read that way.
 
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Big_Rudy

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Ok, well I don't know what else I'm going to get out of this thread since it's pretty clearly just gonna degenerate into a pissing match, but thanks for pointing out PokerScope. I'm a SnG God....according to them :) . They rank me in the 97th percentile of SnG players. SharkScope still has my ability ranked in the mid-60s:( .

Unfortunately, I think SS is probably closer to the truth in this matter:eek: . Interestingly, PokerScope seems to have all my numbers right, as does SS, it's just that their rating procedure/formula seems way different (kinda like PokerProLabs where everyone's an Ace player). Maybe I should move-up to where SS would respect my skillz????? Joking, just find it odd that the sites ratings are so different from each other when they are both working from the same data set.
 
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Nooneinparticular

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The point of the post is that if everyone plays ICM or just pushes on the button on the bubble then that removes the advantage you have by doing it.
I think my change is to call with a wider range than ICM says you should. That will probably increase variance, but should be +EV against the any 2 pushers, as they are frequently found to be pushing with literally 97o and so on......

Ohh and no, tight is definately not right, I didnt say so because I thought that was pretty obvious......
 
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Big_Rudy

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The point of the post is that if everyone plays ICM or just pushes on the button on the bubble then that removes the advantage you have by doing it.
I think my change is to call with a wider range than ICM says you should. That will probably increase variance, but should be +EV against the any 2 pushers, as they are frequently found to be pushing with literally 97o and so on......

Ohh and no, tight is definately not right, I didnt say so because I thought that was pretty obvious......

This is kinda what I do naturally even at the lower buy-ins. If you feel someone is shoving light, then at some point in time you just have to draw a line in the sand and say "eff-it, if they are gonna keep shoving so light, then I'm gonna start calling wide."
 
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Nooneinparticular

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But this is at higher stakes like 60, sometimes at 30 and quite often at 100. Its specifically a group of players. Glad someone who appears to know what theyre talking about agrees, oh and congrats on not flaming :)
 
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BlueNowhere

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The point of the post is that if everyone plays ICM or just pushes on the button on the bubble then that removes the advantage you have by doing it.
I think my change is to call with a wider range than ICM says you should. That will probably increase variance, but should be +EV against the any 2 pushers, as they are frequently found to be pushing with literally 97o and so on......

Ohh and no, tight is definately not right, I didnt say so because I thought that was pretty obvious......

If it's going to be more +ev than what you currently use how will it increase variance given your edge will actually get bigger?

Also you are aware you can post SS graphs without revealing your name, right?
 
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Big_Rudy

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But this is at higher stakes like 60, sometimes at 30 and quite often at 100. Its specifically a group of players. Glad someone who appears to know what theyre talking about agrees, oh and congrats on not flaming :)

I actually think what you're talking about is fairly interesting and I think it absolutely will become more prenounced at higher levels. At lower levels there are few who understand or even know about ICM, so I don't see it often, but every once in awhile I do. At higher levels where most people have at least some idea of ICM, I'm sure you run into this situation all the time. Like you said, mathematically and by ICM standards it may be wrong, but I think you can't simply let people run-over you continually waiting for a spot where ICM says it's OK to push back.
 
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WiZZiM

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The point of the post is that if everyone plays ICM or just pushes on the button on the bubble then that removes the advantage you have by doing it.
I think my change is to call with a wider range than ICM says you should. That will probably increase variance, but should be +EV against the any 2 pushers, as they are frequently found to be pushing with literally 97o and so on......

Ohh and no, tight is definately not right, I didnt say so because I thought that was pretty obvious......

There isn't much you can do against good players. You can of course open up your range to take advantage of loose shoving ranges, but usually good players will then eventually re-adjust and shove tighter, making your loose calls unprofitable. At the end of the day you can play this cat and mouse game, but usually you fall into an equilibrium against good players.

It's actually already a thing called "spite calling". I know you are not doing this because you are pissed off and on tilt, but that's the name for it. It's actually quite +EV long term. When a villian is shoving so wide on you, you can call wider than ICM suggests too. This will make both your call and his shove unprofitable long term. You are accepting this in the hopes that he cottons on and then does not shove a really wide range in a lot of spots, it basically makes him think twice about doing it because he knows you will call wide. Eventually though, you will kind of fall into an equilibrium with this player, which is essentially just a defensive play to make sure you are not being exploited. You can try playing cat and mouse games, but it usually becomes a guessing game and it's likely more profitable to just stick to a defensive strat.

The real edge these days in SNG is in the early game, but as i mentioned earlier, hypers have no early game really (depending on structure), so there is even less edge to be had. These games have super small edges, so the idea is to play a lot of them to make up for that. So you really need to outwork your opponants, putting in more hours and playing more consistently. Also table selection and game selection are way more important these days. You probably need to get good at a few differant forms of SNG these days, so you can take advantage of softer tables.

Just out of curiosity, what would you call in these spots? all assuming you are against a good villian who knows you are good? All on the bubble...

Effective stacks 10 BB he shoves, you call with?

Effective stacks 5 BB he shoves, you call with?
 
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Loonbat

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The only hyper turbo grinders I know do it for SNE (super nova elite) status on PS. These players play pretty much break-even poker (basically -1% to 2% ROIs) but still end up highly profitable given the perks and $$$ associated with SNE status. Honestly, just proper push/fold poker will yield this result and the skill level is largely negated based on the nature of the events.
 
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