N
Nooneinparticular
Rock Star
Silver Level
Hi all
So, quickly about me and what I play. I'm a profitable SNG Hyper tourny player. I play $30 or $60 buyin, sometimes up to $100, depending on my mood and bank roll. I make money almost all the time, with only small losses when variance goes against me.
I work in the gambling industry and design slot games and slot game maths, so have a deep understanding of probabilities, +EV, -EV, ICM, equilibrium theory and so on. I've read and understood things like raisers edge and so on, so I know what I'm doing. I dont play Pro as I find it very hard work and enjoy my work.
So, now to the point of the thread.
6 seated SNG Hypers I play pay top 2, and are by definition aggressive. Short 500 starting stack, a tourny lasts around 8 to 10 minutes.
Now, only at the $60 range, it is obvious that a group of players (including me) are using ICM for the late stages. Now ICM is widespread and quite a lot of people know about it and have their game finely tuned these games become a simple one with 3 players left on the cash bubble. It literally becomes a game where the button pushes with any 2 cards, as someone will need a great hand at least to call using ICM, something like 77+ AJo++, and that might be a bit wide.
So, because everyone does the same, there is no skill or poker being played, and it becomes a luckfest on who gets 1010 on the button and walks into AK or JJ, or A10o vs QQ, and so on.
So, I have been looking for a solution which will beat this situation, and have found one of sorts, but it massively increases variance, and under ICM it is incorrect.
So, the question is, is it time to move on from ICM and adapt to something else, after all, the beauty of poker is to always adapt and change. Those people who sit and wait for QQ/KK/AA/AK now lose, but can't seem to understand why, or to adapt.
Lets see what this sparks, could be an interesting thread.....
enjoy.
So, quickly about me and what I play. I'm a profitable SNG Hyper tourny player. I play $30 or $60 buyin, sometimes up to $100, depending on my mood and bank roll. I make money almost all the time, with only small losses when variance goes against me.
I work in the gambling industry and design slot games and slot game maths, so have a deep understanding of probabilities, +EV, -EV, ICM, equilibrium theory and so on. I've read and understood things like raisers edge and so on, so I know what I'm doing. I dont play Pro as I find it very hard work and enjoy my work.
So, now to the point of the thread.
6 seated SNG Hypers I play pay top 2, and are by definition aggressive. Short 500 starting stack, a tourny lasts around 8 to 10 minutes.
Now, only at the $60 range, it is obvious that a group of players (including me) are using ICM for the late stages. Now ICM is widespread and quite a lot of people know about it and have their game finely tuned these games become a simple one with 3 players left on the cash bubble. It literally becomes a game where the button pushes with any 2 cards, as someone will need a great hand at least to call using ICM, something like 77+ AJo++, and that might be a bit wide.
So, because everyone does the same, there is no skill or poker being played, and it becomes a luckfest on who gets 1010 on the button and walks into AK or JJ, or A10o vs QQ, and so on.
So, I have been looking for a solution which will beat this situation, and have found one of sorts, but it massively increases variance, and under ICM it is incorrect.
So, the question is, is it time to move on from ICM and adapt to something else, after all, the beauty of poker is to always adapt and change. Those people who sit and wait for QQ/KK/AA/AK now lose, but can't seem to understand why, or to adapt.
Lets see what this sparks, could be an interesting thread.....
enjoy.