Is this more than variance?

This is a rant/a desperate cry for help and I apologise in advance!

I started about a month ago, grinding away at the $0.50 turbo SnG's on PS with a $10 BR. The challenge was simple (or so it seemed), to grind my way up to $75, then move up to $1.50. After a shaky start I ended my first few days down at $4. I read endless articles, watched endless videos and after another week or so I flew up to $40.

Between now and two weeks ago I've lost the whole BR, reloaded 4 times, and lost the lot. It's becoming so frustrating, it's really getting me down, to a point where I just feel like forgetting the game even exists. It's not so much about losing money, I accept that's part of the game, it's more bad beats and all my hard work going to waste. Just tonight I was eliminated on the bubble, I had KK on the button, a guy way ahead of me pushed all in with 5,3o to which I called pre flop, and he won with a 3 of a kind. Again, tonight I was out in 6th place, I had 3 aces after the flop, a guy called my all in with 7.4s and came out on top with a flush, despite the flop being a rainbow. Every night for the past week or two it's been bad beat after bad beat after bad beat. What the hell is going on?!

What strategy works best at these stakes? What books shall I read? What videos can I watch? Does a HUD really help?(I've never been keen, as most are too expensive, and I've had a free trial with Holdem manager 2, and u didn't understand it at all!)

I'm getting desperate, I want to eventually turn pro, I want to be the next Sam Trickett, I want to compete in major live tournaments, but all that seems a lightyear away- please help!

I'm thinking of offering up some free coaching as a way of giving back. Your post(s) have inspired me to do this.

Not 100% sure what avenue/method as I'm fairly busy working alot of hours currently (doing a large reno. of an apt. building, currently painting the entire interior 'BUT' I am taking 1 day off during the weak & 1 or 2 days on the weekend to play a bit of the pokerzz).

I'll be in touch.

Maybe your 10 usd BR is too shallow to attempt at sng. Variance in these games, especially low stakes is quite high. You may be in a downswing, maybe to scared at losses that you cannot play an optimal game.

My 2 cents here would be you better try at cash games first. With 10 usd you get 5 stacks at the lowest level, where the variance should not be as hard as in your current SNG games. Try grinding it out to a decent BR to start playing SNGs. And definitely try to get your hands into books and articles about the mental game. There is a lot to be found online for free if you look for carefully.
And finally be very patient!!! I am no pro at all but have been playing for 3-4 years now and I have my share of downswings just like yours. I also had to reload my BR a few times before getting to a BR that lets me play confidently in the games I like wich are tournaments, without going broke even when I haven't been in a final table in like forever!! Well it's been a couple months but it sucks anyway. Keep trying!!!

stop reloading, take a break. Study more. Play less.

Use more conservative bankroll tactics and play the lowest stakes possible.

I've busted my roll a bunch of times, as have even the best players on this site. It's part of the learning process.

There are players who lost much and reloaded much than you do.

Experience is the key. Have to play much. Have a years background on live and online to see the difference.

Take at least a week off from poker, including studying. Then a week of low intensity learning and then get back into it. GL

Hypers or normal turbos?

without seeing hand data or sample size it would be hard to comment on weather it was bad luck or bad play etc.

I know for my games even at the $4 games (well 3.75) people have seen swings of over $2000 down and I am talking about regulars who grind them for a living.

I normally find sharkscope is helpful here, you can sharkscope people until you find winning regs who have opted in and then look at there graphs to get realistic views of what sort of swings are normal, then you can ask yourself questions.

the best thing to do is learn as much as you can so emotion plays as little factor as possible.

ICMIZer is a great tool for sit and goes practice with that and review it but dont stop there.

http://www.internettexasholdem.com/texas-holdem-odds-calculator/

this is another tool I use and a very good one I constantly compare hands against ranges to see what ICMIZER is saying.

eg a common spot that actually I found was Q2s in the SB v BB ICMIZER said it was a shove but what sort of equity did there recomended calling range have against my recomened shoving range when i realized how thin the margins are i figured out if they call tighter its def a shove and if they call wider there just giving me money.

this is a unique spot i know but the point is by analysing the situation I dont think I have been running bad and I dont feel good with this I know its a shove and bam I shove.

also turbos and hypers are brutal in swings and it could possibly be bad luck here.

I built my roll up to four figures before I started targeting hypers, a little bit of free advice fixed limit SNGS are a lot easier to beat and a lot more stable in terms of variance, not many regs target them because you wont make a lot from them but if you want to grind to build a roll before you go for it these are great.

I built a four figure roll out fixed limit tourneys and sngs so I know what I talking about hear but yes it is boring and frustrating poker.

From what you say - it's just varinance. And the cure for the variance is volume.
If you think you are playing well and not making stupid, tilty calls I think you should play more. And don't worry it will all balance at some point.

westside1950 said:

From what you say - it's just varinance. And the cure for the variance is volume.
If you think you are playing well and not making stupid, tilty calls I think you should play more. And don't worry it will all balance at some point.

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with respect I dont think thats the answer, I am not saying it is not variance but the way to know is to analyse not just assume. Everyone thinks there making the right decisions otherwise you would not make those decisions. of course a lot of people have to be making the wrong decisions because where does the money come from. assume nothing until you know study the game study ICM use ICMIZER do some maths for the game work it out was this a good call or not was the other player playing right etc.

I have been there thinking I deserved to win more and it was unlucky I looked at maths and found a number of my mistakes and improved.

I dont mean this in a nasty way but you should not have to ask if you have an edge and or not in the micros you should know and you should be able to clearly see what others are doing wrong.