Maybe I Should Just Quit?
I have been playing poker semi-seriously now for 5 years; I mean I have a day job and could not possibly make a living at the poker stakes I play at; nonetheless I have been a decent player for 5 years.
I started my poker bankroll in 2009 with $20K and am nearly entirely a tournament player. I don't have the luxury of supplementing my play with cash games since, here in Colorado, those games suck. $1/$2 to $100 because there is a $100 max-bet law in effect. We all know that we can only reasonably expect to win about 3-4BB per 100 hands, or $4/hour at these stakes. Quite frankly, I donít have the patience for that and easily leak $8 every $100 hands. So I occasionally, play cash just to kill time, and itís more like Bingo anyway because no one cares about the $2BB, limp, limp, limp, call, call, callÖthe point is I donít waste my time trying to make any money at Colorado cash games. There are bigger games, like $30/$60 but with a $100 max bet I canít even make a legal raise Ė to me itís a moot point; though I know several regular players that play that game and consistently do well, at least thatís what they say.
Yesterday I played in a $500 dollar deep stack tournament thatís part of a locally run tournament series called the CPC (Colorado Poker Classic). I lost in horrific fashion, again, and am quite frustrated by it.
One player in particular was as weak as they come. We started with $40K and he got involved in a hand very early on that he ended up winning and more than doubling up. He had
and made a set on the flop with a
board. He flat called a large flop bet and a large turn bet to the point where he had 60% of his stack invested. It went
on the turn and river and he ended up flat calling a large river bet and cracking a flopped nut-flush. Then he said, ďMan that 3 on the river was a miracleĒ as Iím just in awe of how the money got in and how lucky he got and how terribly he played his hand.
So he then had about $90K. We played for 7 hours and in that time he raised exactly twice to ridiculous 10x amounts, everyone folded both times and he won the blinds; Iím sure he was thinking ďfinally I won with JacksĒ. Yet he limped in nearly every hand and would routinely call pre-flop raises and 3-bets Ė but he would routinely limp/fold as well. I had personally raised his pre-flop limps at least 3 times and there were several other players taking advantage as well. We just returned from the dinner break when the following hand takes place:
Blinds were $1K/$2K/$300, I had $43K and my opponent had limped his +$90K stack off to around $60K. Everyone folded to my foe in the hijack and he limps again for $2K. Itís folded to me on the button and I find
I raised to $7K (3.5x with 20-ish BBís). Both of the blinds fold and the hijack player calls after some deliberation.
My opponent insta-checked. Over the course of the day he had been limping constantly, yet, when he would hit something he would lead out and bet and always a 1x or 1.5x pot bet. When he didnít hit anything, he would check just like he did here. Additionally, he insta-checked, which is to say not a dark check but as soon as possible after the flop was seen. We all should know that is a clear sign of weakness.
I mulled my options over:
1. I check behind
2. I bet Ė something like $6K-$8K
3. I move all-in.
Options 1 and 2 both have the same problem, he gets another card. Iím nearly sure I have the best hand right now and his range is literally anything within reason Ė I donít want him to get another card. If I bet here, I guarantee he calls and Iím in a really bad spot with a lot of turn cards. Plus any reasonable stab at this pot will commit around 30% of my stack. I choose option #3 and moved all-in.
My opponent snap calls me. ďShitĒ, as I let out a big sigh. ďWell I really stepped in it here, what do you have K8 or something?Ē He shows
I donít want to waste too much time trying to analyze this hand, I feel that I will lose brain cells and actually get dumber by attempting to do so. Iíll bet that he canít even tell me why he did that Ė but he did and thatís that.
I am getting really frustrated and have been on the worst losing streak I have ever had; and itís always something stupid like this. Equally frustrating is that fact that this was a $500 buy-in; this wasnít the $40 10am Tuesday morning tournament; WTF!
So here are my numbers:
BR $20K, 63 tournaments played, ABI - $135, ITM Ė 12%, Gross +$750, Net -$625, ROI -3.1%
BR $19,375, 29 tournaments played, ABI - $165, ITM Ė 20%, Gross +$2443, Net+$898, ROI +4.6%
BR $20,273, 21 tournaments played, ABI - $425, ITM Ė 24%, Gross -$165, Net -$1260, ROI -6.2%
BR $19,013, 63 tournaments played, ABI - $325, ITM Ė 24%, Gross -$1706, Net -$1166, ROI -6.1%
BR $17,307, 69 tournaments played, ABI - $250, ITM Ė 19%, Gross -$3106, Net -$5346, ROI -30%
BR $11961, 245 tournaments played, ABI - $260, ITM Ė 19.8%, Gross -$1784, Net -$7,499, ROI -41.6%
I am seriously thinking about quitting Ė this is a complete waste of time. I win and lose at the wrong times and I always have something absolutely ridiculous like the above example kill my hopes at a larger than average cash. The travel, lodging, and incidental costs are off the chart and account for a -28.5% ROI by themselves. I donít think these numbers are really all that bad, that said, they are pretty pedestrian, but ITM 19.8% of the time, over 5 years isnít awful; is it? I guess I just donít have what it takes and am seriously thinking about giving up Ė itís not even fun anymore!