maths behind shoving ranges

How do we calculate what % equity we need to shove/call profitably in various spots?

poker stars $2.28+$0.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds + t100 - 7 players - View hand 2020341
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): t7437 M = 3.38
BTN: t9387 M = 4.27
SB: t6023 M = 2.74
BB: t13908 M = 6.32
UTG: t14052 M = 6.39
UTG+1: t13616 M = 6.19
MP: t3320 M = 1.51

Pre Flop: (t2200) Hero is CO with XxXx
3 folds, Hero raises to t7337 all in

Here I'm shoving to gain roughly 0.30 of my stack, which means that they need to be folding 70% of the time for this to be profitable right? Or should I be thinking that I need 30% equity against their calling range?

Im shoving almost any two if its folded round to me.

youregoodmate said:

Im shoving almost any two if its folded round to me.

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Right I get that, but my point is why, mathematically?

definitely not an expert...but I don't think you need them to fold quite that often, as you will win sometimes when they do call. Seems to me that figuring out there calling range will also let you know how often they will fold, no?

doomasiggy said:

How do we calculate what % equity we need to shove/call profitably in various spots?

Poker Stars $2.28+$0.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds + t100 - 7 players - View hand 2020341
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): t7437 M = 3.38
BTN: t9387 M = 4.27
SB: t6023 M = 2.74
BB: t13908 M = 6.32
UTG: t14052 M = 6.39
UTG+1: t13616 M = 6.19
MP: t3320 M = 1.51

Pre Flop: (t2200) Hero is CO with XxXx
3 folds, Hero raises to t7337 all in

Here I'm shoving to gain roughly 0.30 of my stack, which means that they need to be folding 70% of the time for this to be profitable right? Or should I be thinking that I need 30% equity against their calling range?

Click to expand...

No, its an EV problem...

(.30 of stack) (FREQ OF NOT BEING CALLED) + (equity against calling range)(freq of being called)(pot when called)

I just finished a big assignment and probably didnt write that out correctly, but you should be able to understand what I meant.

You're asking a much bigger question than you realize...

I think you're just trying to ask about your expected value in this spot? For a play to be profitable, your EV must be > 0.

But for tournaments it becomes more complicated because chips don't match up with precise monetary value as in cash games, so ICM comes into play.

Okay, so let's say they're calling: 22+/A8s+/KJo+, fairly nitty but std imo at this BI level. That comes up to a 20% calling range for each, how do I convert that into the frequency that I'm getting called?

@ Scourge, yeah I know about ICM but let's just ignore that for now and just concentrate on cEv.

So you're asking, basically, that if it's folded to you in the CO, what is the chance that, assuming each player has a random hand, you will be called by one of the 3 players behind you when you shove?

Scourrge said:

So you're asking, basically, that if it's folded to you in the CO, what is the chance that, assuming each player has a random hand, you will be called by one of the 3 players behind you when you shove?

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yes.

doomasiggy said:

Okay, so let's say they're calling: 22+/A8s+/KJo+, fairly nitty but std imo at this BI level. That comes up to a 20% calling range for each, how do I convert that into the frequency that I'm getting called?

@ Scourge, yeah I know about ICM but let's just ignore that for now and just concentrate on cEv.

Click to expand...

Also, the calling range you are describing isn't really well-defined. Are you saying he is playing all offsuit aces but not all suited aces? Or that he is only playing A8+ offsuit or suited?

But if each player has a 20% calling frequency, just determine the chance that NONE of the players behind you have a hand to call with, so 80% x 80% x 80% = 51.2%. Which means that at least one of them will call about 48.8% of the time (assuming you have no blockers to any of the cards in their range).

Scourrge said:

You're asking a much bigger question than you realize...

I think you're just trying to ask about your expected value in this spot? For a play to be profitable, your EV must be > 0.

But for tournaments it becomes more complicated because chips don't match up with precise monetary value as in cash games, so ICM comes into play.

Click to expand...

its more than just $EV aswell