This is a discussion on Mathematical analysis of push fold mode within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; This is going to be a long post so bare with me. I was wondering if my shove stealing moves when I'm short stacked are 


#1




Mathematical analysis of push fold mode
This is going to be a long post so bare with me. I was wondering if my shove stealing moves when I'm short stacked are +EV, so I decided to do a mathematical analysis.
First of, I made a calling range for the average opponent I play against. Note that a calling is player and image dependent so it's not a fixed number, but I'll assume it is for this post. This is the calling range I gave them: 66+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+ Poker stove told me that a person will get one of these hands 12% of the time. I then compared every hand against villains calling range. I round it up to 5s to make it easier. Here's the hand vs. their range data: These will win 25% of the time: T2T5, 9294, 8283,7273,62,52,42,32,J2J6 These will win 30% of the time: K2K9, Q2Q9, J7J9, T6T8, 9598, 8487, 7476, 6365, 5354, 43 These will win 35% of the time:A2A9, KTKJ, QTQJ, JT, T9 These will win 40% of the time: AT, KQ, 2255 These will win 45% of the time: AJ, 6677 These will win 50% of the time: AQ, 8899 These will win 60% of the time: AKJJ These will win 65% of the time: QQ These will win 75% of the time: KK These will win 85% of the time: AA I didn't use suited cards as the relationship between win rate and suited or not was not clear; I thought I'd ask you guys instead of trying to figure it out. It seems that I can add 3.5% for low suited cards and 2% for high, something like that. I'm not sure if the formula I made is correct. Anyway, here it is: expected value= chance to be called X [(chance will win X amount gained) + (chance will lose X  current stack size(calculated in M))] + chance will not be called X amount stolen( calculated by percentage of stack gained) Therefore, EV= 0.12P X [(W X (1+2M)) + (1  W) X M)] + [(1  0.12P) X 1/M] P= Players left to act, W= win percentage, M= effective stack size, calculated in M Add the numbers into the equation and if it equals greater than 1, it is +EV. If this formula is accurate, I could memorize the numbers for when I play live poker, so that I know if the move is + EV or not. I might even be able to calculate it in my head with some practice/tricks. However, just because the shove is + EV does that necessarily mean I should make that move? This formula doesn't consider the idea of "waiting for a better spot." It also sort of assumes that increasing my stack by x% means that I will increase my equity in the tournament by x%, which is not true. Just because I double up does not mean I doubled my chances of winning. I'm not sure if the first part of the formula is correct: 0.12P part. What if there is a 10 handed table and I'm UTG. Does that mean I will be called 108% of the time?? 
#4




You can use SNG wiz to review hands from MTT play, but remember to switch it from $ev, to Cev.
You can also adjust your edge to account for your skill level over the players, like, if your a better player, you can pass up on some marginal +ev spots, to wait for better +ev spots later on. But if your not as skilled as your opponants, you may want to make more slightly marginal +ev shoves. The training mode in SNG wiz is terrible, the situations are bad, using poor opponant moddelling, you'll be training yourself to make mistakes for the most part. Your normally not going to have time to make the mathematical equations at the table, your better off just reviewing, and playing loads, so that the decisions become easier, and you just intuitively know if a shove is good or not. The only way to get that way, is to play lots, and reviews lots too. But yeah, basically ICM software will account for all the neccesary factors, and it will give you a much better idea if your shove is good or not.. 
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re: Poker & Mathematical analysis of push fold mode
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#6




Suppose you had this situation: You are at a critical decision in a tournament and let's say you are in the big blind, and a button steal raise will put you all in, so you are deciding whether to call based on the known pot odds and the fact that you will complete the action.
You enter a hand range of what you think your opponent could have into Poker Stove, then you enter your 8c9c, and simulate, and you figure you're getting good pot odds based on the win / lose percentages. During this operation, you would be wise to call for time, and it might take you up to 30 seconds to enter the range into PS (no program is faster, but its interface is clunky; there's no way to say JTs54s easily  you have to specify each of those hands manually). That is using a computer program to make a decision. Is that banned in the TOC of the sites? Here's another question for live players. What if they made an version of Poker Stove for IPhone? Are Iphones banned? If not do you think the tournament director / players / dealer would frown upon using it in the manner described above? Personally I think I have enough experience to make an educated guess on whether to call in said situations based on pot odds , my hand, and my perception of the blind stealer. 
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#10




re: Poker & Mathematical analysis of push fold mode
well your 12% doesnt account for the card removal effect. meaning if you actually hold AK the chances the villian holds AA KK or AK are minimized to a degree. also don't use pokerstove it's out dated download "poker evolution' by equilab it's pokerstove on roids. but yes do what wizzim says get sngwiz. this software not only accounts for your equity when called but also the increase in equity when the villains fold. and also as he says don't use the default ranges.
