Luck or strategy

Rui Ferreira

Rui Ferreira

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I've been thinking about whether there is luck in poker or it's pure strategy because there is a lot of strategy, but we can not put aside luck, nothing that exists in the world can generalize, I think poker is 10% strategy and 90 % luck, why in an AA hand that you lose to 22 preflop! It's a bad luck you had! So poker for me is a mix of the two!
 
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elvinkoh1

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I totally agree. Sometimes results are inevitable. I trimmed sometimes when I have three cards on the desk, being afraid someone would have flush or better trio :D
 
Fisherman_63

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And I think that poker is 70% skill and 30% luck
 
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TinskiM

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It is a game of luck and patience. I just lost a few minutes ago on AA.
 
Andrei Lisovets

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As in any card game, it all depends on what card you were given (it's luck), but how big a stack you can take with this card (this skill)
 
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LeapSteep

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I think the point of learning poker is diminishing the influence luck has on your game. It's about making informed decisions and not relying on the luck factor to win.
 
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emeraldsrus

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def luck is needed to get deep and win, try not to push your luck too often
gl :)
 
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emeraldsrus

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in micro I think is 70% luck , but in bigger games probably opposite at 30% luck lol
gl :)
 
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elvinkoh1

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What u can say when u have AA and the opponent has AK, on the table is K4KQ2 and the opponent wins. What can u say about that? Has luck a great influence on the game? It is very important...
 
Satiivas

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Luck in the short run, meaning your bad plays won't be necessarily punished immediately and your good plays won't be rewarded.

Definitely skill in the long run, meaning your bad plays will get punished and good plays rewarded.

Imagine a bag, where there is one black and three white balls. They're identical and you can't see which one you are taking out. What's the probability of taking out a white ball? Spoiler alert: 3:1 or 75%.

If you do it only once and maybe take out the black ball, what's the actual outcome? 100% Black Ball, 0% White Ball.
If you do the same thing 10 times, let's say you take the Black Ball out 3 times and the White Ball 7 times. Outcome: Black Ball 30%, White Ball 70%. Although unlikely, if you do it only 10 times, it might happen, that you take the Black Ball out 1 time or 4 times or maybe even 6 times.
Now, let's say you do the same thing 10,000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 times. I can guarantee you, that the outcome will be ALMOST 75% White Ball and 25% Black Ball.

Deduction? You need a large sample size for the probabilities to work properly.

If you have 500$, you don't want to bet the whole amount, that the next ball taken out will be white, because 25% is still quite a big probability in the short run. You might get unlucky and lose all of your money. But, if you have 500$ you can quite comfortably keep betting 1-5$ and you will show profit in the long run.

Deduction: You need a good bankroll management to "survive" until the probabilities start actually affecting your results.

EDIT: Also, I think the sufficient sample size depends on the probability. Following the previous example, I think you're able to get your actual outcome matching to the expected outcome quite quickly, given that it's 75-25. But 60-40 or 55-45 will and should take longer time to get there.
 
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masik6

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ответ

I agree with
Fisherman_63 completely.
 
Adriemoren

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I don't agree. Luck is part neccesary of game but ir you have AA can loose after flop but not always.
And sincerally with a poor hand we never raise because usually loose.
Strategy is more important. 90% I think.
 
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Actor247

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I've been thinking about whether there is luck in poker or it's pure strategy because there is a lot of strategy, but we can not put aside luck, nothing that exists in the world can generalize, I think poker is 10% strategy and 90 % luck, why in an AA hand that you lose to 22 preflop! It's a bad luck you had! So poker for me is a mix of the two!

Yes, I would have to agree with that. There is lots of strategy in poker..However, if you dont have or get the cards and they fall like garbage..it can be some luck too because it just depends on how the cards fall.
 
edc1

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I cant win without a lil luck along the way-theres at least one hand in every tourney I played and won where I whiffed putting villain on hand and made a bad call or raise,then won the hand by lucking out-so for me its def both luck and skill .skill getting way better % than luck
 
Anatoliy Tolik

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luck and strategy I think about 50 to 50
 
ankitantil

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If you want to be the first in poker you need both.
 
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Napkins420

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Poker is 90% luck in any single session
If you are making correct desisions then luck will account to 5% or less in a years time
 
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admhi

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wow thats something to consider, thanks for the tips.
 
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GreedyNephilim

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I'm sick of people talking about this again and again. Let's put an end to this. It's not just poker, EVERY ****ING GAME / SPORT has luck involved. If not, we should always be able to tell which team wins before a game when starts. It's because there are so many factors involved like weather, opponents will on that particular day, the ****ing toss, an unexpected injury, an even more unexpectedly good performance by a supposedly great player or bad performance from a total rookie... that can dictate the game's result. IF A SUPPOSEDLY FAVORITE TEAM IS TO WIN AGAINST A SUPPOSEDLY WEAK TEAM (only) 80% OF THE TIME, why can't people see this is the same as ACES vs any other hand in holdem?? As long as there's no 100% guarantee that one team will win over the other and you can only "guess" the chances in percentages, why the duck do people train about "skill" and all that shit in other sports so much?? Get over it already. POKER IS THE SAME AS ANY OTHER SPORT. It's just that the way luck plays its hand here is very clear, like in your face clear. I believe that's actually a good thing for the players. They actually KNOW their EXACT chances of making their hand, while you can only ever GUESS in a "real sport" like Football. There is skill, and there is luck. It's the same with every sport out there. Not even chess is an exception. You always hear about kids beating reigning World Champions. That's just the WC getting unlucky. But nobody calls it that, it's always because "the kid is a prodigy". Yes it may be true, but it's also true that it was unlucky for the WC to play that game the way it was played. Played some other way, the WC probably wouldn't be caught off guard by a brat. People should stop looking down on poker just because it's a card game. It's a beautiful, sexy game. You can both PLAY poker and GAMBLE. The same game can be played in two totally different ways, and probably even more. You know for a fact there are elite players who've made millions. They didn't do it overnight. They spent decades playing the game. It's not just with ANY CARD GAME, it's with ANY ****ING GAME. There is always both luck and skill involved. Now if you think it's just a gamble and just limp every ****ing hand, yes, it is a gamble. It's just like a batter not observing anything and just hitting every pitch the same way, HOPING TO GET LUCKY and hit a homerun. Yes, such players exist. And they usually do that for fun, and don't take the game seriously. They are called "CASUAL" players. In poker, we call them FISH. And then there are players who take the game VERY SERIOUSLY and observe the **** out of every damn pitch the pitcher throws and every mistake the fielders make, then stand in the box, predict the pitcher's next pitch, let go of the easy ones, wait for meatballs etc etc etc. In poker, these are the WINNING players. Our even pros who play for a living. So GET THE **** OVER IT. If you can't put in the hours and grind, you can never be more than a fish to the sharks. If you want to be a shark yourself, play hundreds of thousands of hands. Play them all very carefully. Observe. AND STOP SITTING NONSENSICAL QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS. It's not just poker. Every sport is the same. If you want be good, you better work bitch.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3003 using CardsChat mobile app
 
darthdimsky

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Luck in the short run, meaning your bad plays won't be necessarily punished immediately and your good plays won't be rewarded.

Definitely skill in the long run, meaning your bad plays will get punished and good plays rewarded.

Imagine a bag, where there is one black and three white balls. They're identical and you can't see which one you are taking out. What's the probability of taking out a white ball? Spoiler alert: 3:1 or 75%.

If you do it only once and maybe take out the black ball, what's the actual outcome? 100% Black Ball, 0% White Ball.
If you do the same thing 10 times, let's say you take the Black Ball out 3 times and the White Ball 7 times. Outcome: Black Ball 30%, White Ball 70%. Although unlikely, if you do it only 10 times, it might happen, that you take the Black Ball out 1 time or 4 times or maybe even 6 times.
Now, let's say you do the same thing 10,000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 times. I can guarantee you, that the outcome will be ALMOST 75% White Ball and 25% Black Ball.

Deduction? You need a large sample size for the probabilities to work properly.

If you have 500$, you don't want to bet the whole amount, that the next ball taken out will be white, because 25% is still quite a big probability in the short run. You might get unlucky and lose all of your money. But, if you have 500$ you can quite comfortably keep betting 1-5$ and you will show profit in the long run.

Deduction: You need a good bankroll management to "survive" until the probabilities start actually affecting your results.

EDIT: Also, I think the sufficient sample size depends on the probability. Following the previous example, I think you're able to get your actual outcome matching to the expected outcome quite quickly, given that it's 75-25. But 60-40 or 55-45 will and should take longer time to get there.

+1
 
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