low pocket pairs late in MTT

how do you guys play low pairs (especially in the blinds) when its down to like the last 15ish people in a tourny? for example:

you have about 30BB, UTG (with about an even stack) opens for under 3xBB and ur in the BB with pocket 3s....i think its an obvious call here, but then the flop comes 2TJ rainbow...do you bet out? i checked and he bet 3xBB and i folded, he showed an ace and hid his other card...my read on him suggested he def was strong UTG, so AJ was a def possibility...i just felt like he could have caught either over card and there was no need to get into it in that spot...would u guys have checked the BB after that flop or bet out and see how he plays back?

fkucdaw0rld said:

you have about 30BB, UTG (with about an even stack) opens for under 3xBB and ur in the BB with pocket 3s....i think its an obvious call here, but then the flop comes 2TJ rainbow...do you bet out? i checked and he bet 3xBB and i folded, he showed an ace and hid his other card...my read on him suggested he def was strong UTG, so AJ was a def possibility...i just felt like he could have caught either over card and there was no need to get into it in that spot...would u guys have checked the BB after that flop or bet out and see how he plays back?

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thats 10% of your stack so according to the 5/10 rule you should be folding pre

fkucdaw0rld said:

you have about 30BB, UTG (with about an even stack) opens for under 3xBB and ur in the BB with pocket 3s

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That's a preflop fold for me. But I think you could support either decision by analyzing this in a couple of different ways. (NOTE: My numbers and methods may be wrong!)

(1) Consider pot odds. You are 7:1 against hitting your set. Thus, pot odds must be 7:1 or better to make the call. If 4.5 BB are on the table and you need to bet 2 BB to call, your pot odds are a little better than 2:1. That's not good enough, so fold.

(2) Consider implied odds. There is a 1/8 chance you'll hit your set. If you hit and your opponent sticks around with AQ, AK, or any pocket pair until the end, there's a roughly 85% chance that you'll beat him. If you don't hit your set, you fold. So your EV from calling (and him following you all in) is:

(.125)*(.85)*30BB - (.125)*(.15)*30BB - (.875)2BB =
3.19BB - 0.56BB - 1.75BB =
3.19BB - 2.31BB =
0.88BB

Wow! I'm not liking those numbers given those assumptions. That's +EV, but only if you can get him to follow you all the way. If he stops at half his stack on a losing hand:

(.125)*(.85)*15BB - (.125)*(.15)*30BB - (.875)2BB =
1.59BB - 0.56BB - 1.75BB =
1.59BB - 2.31BB =
-0.72BB

Ouch. -EV. Then again, how can your opponent know when he is beat so he can stop betting at half his stack? If he knows based on your betting, then you also get some fold equity somewhere based on some bet. But that's going to have perils as well.

So people might see it differently based on how they evaluate it, but I see it as a losing situation. And I think many others will as well based on the pot odds and position alone. If you were short stacked or he was short stated or you had a good read on him and position, then you might have a different situation.

jbbb said:

thats 10% of your stack so according to the 5/10 rule you should be folding pre

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I didn't even know that rule. OK, based on this rule, you should preflop fold as well. It's in the stars... fold!!

The 5-10 rule is a quick and easy guideline to follow. I first read about this rule in the book Kill Everyone (a recommended read for those not familiar). Quite simply, if an opponent opened and you have a hand you are considering to play and it costs 5% of your stack, you can call. If it's 10% then you should fold. If it is somewhere in the middle, it is judgement call.
Also, in general, playing small pocket pairs out of position in a situation like this is not favorable either. There is virtually never going to be a flop that you like, and most of the time you are just going to be check/folding anyway. When compared to being in position, it also makes it difficult to maintain pot control.
While you need 8-1 implied odds at a minimum to justify a call when set mining, I typically like a bigger implied odds "cushion" to compensate for the fact that you are out of position and you are not always going to stack off your opponent when you actually do hit your set.

I'm intrigued as to how one can show one card in online poker and not the other! Which site is that?

By the way, I'm folding 3'3s here pre flop with 30BB's and a UTG 3x raise unless of course we have several callers then we call with the good odds hoping to hit our set and stack them. I take it everyone folded though? If so easy fold, 3'3s are just so bad I'd sooner be calling with 3,4s / 5,6s hands rather than a low pocket pair like this.

ramdeebam said:

I'm intrigued as to how one can show one card in online poker and not the other! Which site is that?

By the way, I'm folding 3'3s here pre flop with 30BB's and a UTG 3x raise unless of course we have several callers then we call with the good odds hoping to hit our set and stack them. I take it everyone folded though? If so easy fold, 3'3s are just so bad I'd sooner be calling with 3,4s / 5,6s hands rather than a low pocket pair like this.

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You can do this on PKR

ramdeebam said:

I'm intrigued as to how one can show one card in online poker and not the other! Which site is that?

By the way, I'm folding 3'3s here pre flop with 30BB's and a UTG 3x raise unless of course we have several callers then we call with the good odds hoping to hit our set and stack them. I take it everyone folded though? If so easy fold, 3'3s are just so bad I'd sooner be calling with 3,4s / 5,6s hands rather than a low pocket pair like this.

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I havent shown a card in so long, its hard to say. But I have played sites where you can click the cards to be shown/hidden. PKR and Cake come to mind, but I dont show other than the occasional CC game where I show both cards (sometimes to show a player his fold was a good fold, and sometimes to rub a bad one in lol - but its always in jest and good fun). IDK if stars and tilt have the single card option, but probably somewhere.

As stated the 5/10 rule a good thing to think about. But small PPs can be good re steal hands in certain situations, but an UTG raiser will make me want to muck 33 in any position in MOST cases. There will be exceptions, but they will be so situational as to be virtually next to never. I doubt I am calling here ever with 30BB, unless maybe in the blinds with the intention of jamming most flops, but this again is very situational.

fletchdad said:

But small PPs can be good re steal hands in certain situations, but an UTG raiser will make me want to muck 33 in any position in MOST cases. There will be exceptions, but they will be so situational as to be virtually next to never. I doubt I am calling here ever with 30BB, unless maybe in the blinds with the intention of jamming most flops, but this again is very situational.

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If you've got 33 in late position you should be looking to call low pocket pairs more often to UTG raises than MP/late position raises - UTG's range will be stronger, and so if you hit a set he'll be more likely to pay you off.

And I'm really not keen on flatting low pocket pairs out of position and then jamming 26bb into a 9bb pot on most flops...

If it's an awkward spot because you don't have any set mining equity and you are too deep to 3bet jam, just fold. Simple

hm yea i didnt even think about it that much when i made the play, it was moreso me already being in the BB and just wanting to see a flop..now that i've read all ur suggestions i feel like an idiot but oh well...thanks guys i appreciate the input..

o and all the merge sites (this hand was on pokerhost, but carbon, lock, etc.) allow you to choose which cards u want to show as long as u dont have 'auto muck' selected...u can do it on bodog as well

This is for pockets under 88 predominantly.

How I play them changes all the time.. if theres a tight player and I know he only limps a select range then yes I will raise even 22 in the blinds if its just gonna be us heads up, frown upon that all ya like but its never really backfired..

But again.. this hardly ever happens as at micros its too risky the only type I'd ever pull that manuever is the tight/ fit or fold.. this is with blinds only I'm talking about

EP, call, fold or raise never limp.. ok once in a blue moon I may limp.. LP raise all the time.. however if I'm in a spot where I can't afford to spew chips whats the point of raising a hand thats weak post flop again a player that literally calls anything and sticks to it?

Table dynamics changes my play all the time, plus who is left to act after etc... it really all depends.

However most would say only play with lp dont invest too much pre unless you are in a flipping situation.

Some incredibly important factors when calling raises like this is...how often has the player raised prior to this situation and how likely are they to continuation bet if we check to them on the flop? Essentially how aggro are our opponents? The more aggressive they are, the less likely they are to pay us off, which translates to us needing even more chips in comparison to how much we're calling in order to play the hand. If they are a very tight player and are almost certain to cbet only if they hit/probably let us stack them when we hit, we can call on a slightly narrower margin in comparison to our stack.

Us not having position from the BB changes everything...from LP we can play a bit more hands as it allows us the ability to minraise their cbets or just float and see where it leads. Out of position means we must end up checking to them again on the turn, or leading out on the turn, and that can just get downright dangerous.

You said it yourself....there just was no need to get involved post flop with this dicey situation. Should have probably extended that thinking preflop and folded the 2 outer.

With that many bb's setmine and if you miss fold.