Originally Posted by fkucdaw0rld
you have about 30BB, UTG (with about an even stack) opens for under 3xBB and ur in the BB with pocket 3s
That's a preflop fold for me. But I think you could support either decision by analyzing this in a couple of different ways. (NOTE: My numbers and methods may be wrong!)
(1) Consider pot odds
. You are 7:1 against hitting your set. Thus, pot odds
must be 7:1 or better to make the call. If 4.5 BB are on the table and you need to bet 2 BB to call, your pot odds are a little better than 2:1. That's not good enough, so fold.
(2) Consider implied odds. There is a 1/8 chance you'll hit your set. If you hit and your opponent sticks around with AQ, AK, or any pocket pair until the end, there's a roughly 85% chance that you'll beat him. If you don't hit your set, you fold. So your EV from calling (and him following you all in) is:
(.125)*(.85)*30BB - (.125)*(.15)*30BB - (.875)2BB =
3.19BB - 0.56BB - 1.75BB =
3.19BB - 2.31BB =
Wow! I'm not liking those numbers given those assumptions. That's +EV, but only if you can get him to follow you all the way. If he stops at half his stack on a losing hand:
(.125)*(.85)*15BB - (.125)*(.15)*30BB - (.875)2BB =
1.59BB - 0.56BB - 1.75BB =
1.59BB - 2.31BB =
Ouch. -EV. Then again, how can your opponent know when he is beat so he can stop betting at half his stack? If he knows based on your betting, then you also get some fold equity somewhere based on some bet. But that's going to have perils as well.
So people might see it differently based on how they evaluate it, but I see it as a losing situation. And I think many others will as well based on the pot odds and position alone. If you were short stacked or he was short stated or you had a good read on him and position, then you might have a different situation.
Originally Posted by jbbb
thats 10% of your stack so according to the 5/10 rule you should be folding pre
I didn't even know that rule. OK, based on this rule, you should preflop fold as well. It's in the stars... fold!!