jadaminato
Visionary
Silver Level
Today something very typical happened to me in the cardschat tournament. A very loose player limp before me. He has 4 blinds left so I with JJ put a raise the size of his stack. The button pays and limper does too. The range of the button for that play is broadways, As-x or a pair lower than mine. With QQ + almost certainly he would have re raise. The limper pays.
The flop comes 3-4-8 without flush project. The button bets half the pot, which is half of my stack. If he had a third i think he would checked so I'm almost sure I'm ahead. I go all-in and he pays. Shows AQo. River is an A and he wins.
When he paid me the all-in odds were 75% in my favor. Perfect, my play was profitable in the long term. But this left me out of the tournament. So I would like someone to tell me if "the long term" also applies to tournaments.
Even with a couple of aces we will win 4 out of 5 times. But in a tournament, especially in microlimits or freerolls, we will face many more than 5 all-in. And we will not always have AA. So the variance is against each player. But someone has to win.
So, to win a tournament, do we really have to be lucky? That capital that has any pair of cards against another, however small, do we have to expect it not to pay (or unless, when it does, it doesn't cost us all the chips)?
I would really like someone to enlighten me on this matter, because I am about to give up the tournaments and stay alone in cash, where the variance can cost us the box but the long term is more noticeable.
Sorry if I have spelling errors, I'm using a translator.
The flop comes 3-4-8 without flush project. The button bets half the pot, which is half of my stack. If he had a third i think he would checked so I'm almost sure I'm ahead. I go all-in and he pays. Shows AQo. River is an A and he wins.
When he paid me the all-in odds were 75% in my favor. Perfect, my play was profitable in the long term. But this left me out of the tournament. So I would like someone to tell me if "the long term" also applies to tournaments.
Even with a couple of aces we will win 4 out of 5 times. But in a tournament, especially in microlimits or freerolls, we will face many more than 5 all-in. And we will not always have AA. So the variance is against each player. But someone has to win.
So, to win a tournament, do we really have to be lucky? That capital that has any pair of cards against another, however small, do we have to expect it not to pay (or unless, when it does, it doesn't cost us all the chips)?
I would really like someone to enlighten me on this matter, because I am about to give up the tournaments and stay alone in cash, where the variance can cost us the box but the long term is more noticeable.
Sorry if I have spelling errors, I'm using a translator.