Live Tournament Bubble

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sactokid544

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Live tournament, $240 buy-in. 195 entrants. It's a 2-day event and they pay 18 people.
1st - ~$12k
18th ~$600
Were are on the bubble, I have an 8.5 BB shortstack, blinds are: 1.5k/3k, 300 ante.
Folds to me on the button I have KTo.
Ship or fold?
I have the shortest-stack in the room. Next biggest has ~13 BB.
 
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sactokid544

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Thought so.
I think I just needed some sort of consolation after being frustrated about the result...
Thanks!
 
TheKAAHK

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Ship it. In fact, depending on your image and how spewy/stacked the blinds are, I'd ship pretty much any two cards in that spot.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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another bubble thread?

ship it, you made the right move.

in b4 fish say fold to min cash.
 
MediaBLITZ

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TheKAAHK said:
In fact, depending on your image and how spewy/stacked the blinds are, I'd ship pretty much any two cards in that spot.
Click to expand...

This. I've shipped 48o in this situation more than once. Although I have also folded hoping someone else will bubble - but then I learned how to play poker. :D

Also, $600 for 18th??? I'm going to want to see more than that to make my 2 days of playing worthwhile. I'd be almost as disappointed with that as bubbling. I wouldn't feel good about it anyway.
 
Tino11

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Dare I say ignore the advice so far?

Nah, just get em in kidda, almost any two in that situation.
 
ythelongface

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I will be honest... I dont see much point in even looking at your cards here because you may see something less than stellar and talk yourself out of playing it. When I am faced with this situation, very short in relation to the blinds, I will just shove it in because obviously low on chips, and regardless of what I have, I am getting called by at least one person, so get it in and see what happens. Its the only thing to do really.
 
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suckoutartist75

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gotta shove with it, got position, and at the time enough chips to get some folds. Sucks when you do go all in with your pocket nines later and get called in by four players because you have no ammo to scare off weaker hands. Good cards.
 
CuttleFish

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Quick question on this........
He has KTo, on the button, he is only marginally short stacked compared to others, and he is on the bubble. Assuming 9-handed, he has another 7 hands before the blinds come around again. What are his odds of picking up a better hand in the next 7 hands or is this not even worth thinking about? I know if he does pick up better cards later on, then his position will be worse, but considering most people tighten up on the bubble, would this not counteract things?

OP, what was the next couple of stacks like and the next couple of payouts?

CuttleFish
 
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baudib1

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You can pretend to look but pretty much ATC here.
 
CuttleFish

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I dont see how ATC can always be right?

There must be a mathematically correct formula here which would take into account the chance of picking up better cards over the next 7 hands, relative to the position of KTo in relation to the 169 starting hands, moving downwards in terms relative value of position from the button, in relation to the other stack sizes, relative to the payout structure.

Wouldn't have a f'king clue what that formula would look like, just sayin............... :)

Cuttlefish
 
CuttleFish

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oh...................... the formula would also have to factor in the effect min cash $600 would have on the relative expensiness (new word!) of the weekend, relative to the OP's normal financial position and his willingness to listen to his partners "see, i told you not to waste your time playing poker" nag value.
 
Jillychemung

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Um CuttleFish, you might want to reread the OP again. And yes there is a calculation for this and it's called ICM.
 
ManicLombax

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Yeah this would be assuming min cash is not a goal. If it is, definitely value in folding. If not, KTo is 100% shippable, and I'm probably shipping any two here as well (after pretending to look of course). At 8.5BB with antes, next orbit you're down to 6BB-ish and close to losing any fold equity.

8.5BB is definitely not "marginally shortstacked". Picking up blinds and antes here is like +28% to your stack. Folded you you on the button, only 2 people to get through, you can't pass that up.
 
CuttleFish

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ManicLombax said:
8.5BB is definitely not "marginally shortstacked". Picking up blinds and antes here is like +28% to your stack. .
Click to expand...

Meant marginally shortstacked relative to the other guy with 13 BB. There was no other info on other stacks
 
CuttleFish

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I thought ICM just made calculations of stacks in relation to payouts, didnt know it had calculations for taking specific hands into account?
 
Arjonius

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CuttleFish said:
Quick question on this........
He has KTo, on the button, he is only marginally short stacked compared to others, and he is on the bubble. Assuming 9-handed, he has another 7 hands before the blinds come around again. What are his odds of picking up a better hand in the next 7 hands or is this not even worth thinking about? I know if he does pick up better cards later on, then his position will be worse, but considering most people tighten up on the bubble, would this not counteract things?

OP, what was the next couple of stacks like and the next couple of payouts?

CuttleFish
Click to expand...
It's not just position that will be worse. Of the hands that are better than KT, quite a few aren't much better. Would you rather shove something like 66 or A5 into the rest of the table or KT into 2 players?

In addition, the probability of being first to act. is lower. If someone else has opened the betting, are you still shoving any hand better than KT, or are you narrowing your range?
 
MediaBLITZ

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Arjonius said:
It's not just position that will be worse. Of the hands that are better than KT, quite a few aren't much better. Would you rather shove something like 66 or A5 into the rest of the table or KT into 2 players?

In addition, the probability of being first to act. is lower. If someone else has opened the betting, are you still shoving any hand better than KT, or are you narrowing your range?
Click to expand...

In other words there are a boat load more of valid considerations beyond just "picking up a better hand". He could have been holding AA and still got knocked out. He could have been holding 38o and still picked up the blinds - that's poker.
He made the right move with a decent enough stack (and hand) to still be threatening while in position and having first to act honors - honestly it couldn't have been a much better scenario.
 
CuttleFish

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makes more sense now. thanks for the info.
 
duggs

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CuttleFish said:
makes more sense now. thanks for the info.
Click to expand...

Ill do the actual maths later, but im pretty sure this falls into the realm of an unexploitable shove, mean that if we flipped our hand over, and they only called with better, it would still be EV+

not to mention that doubling our stack more than doubles our equity as we are have more room to 3bet shove steal with 16-18bb than we do with 8.5. and therefore on average will do more than twice as well for the double up

Also relative hand strength is important, K10 from the button is much better than KQ or A7 UTG
 
MediaBLITZ

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Yeah, it's +EV, barely, but it is. There are about 130 hands worse than that and waiting 7 deals in hopes of doing better in worse position is (and I am just guessing here) -EV.
duggs said:
Ill do the actual maths later, but im pretty sure this falls into the realm of an unexploitable shove, mean that if we flipped our hand over, and they only called with better, it would still be EV+

not to mention that doubling our stack more than doubles our equity as we are have more room to 3bet shove steal with 16-18bb than we do with 8.5. and therefore on average will do more than twice as well for the double up

Also relative hand strength is important, K10 from the button is much better than KQ or A7 UTG
Click to expand...
 
JamesDaBear

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Pretend to look. Pretend you saw AA. Ship it in. Repeat.
 
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