KQo on bubble SNG

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learnpoker

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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $-100(BB)
SB ($2985)
HERO ($1700)
BTN ($4315)

Dealt to Hero Q<font color='black'>♣</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>

BTN Raises To $200 (Rem. Stack: 4115), SB Folds, HERO $1600 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0), BTN Calls $1500 (Rem. Stack: 2615)

Flop ($3450) J<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='black'>♠</font> 4<font color='black'>♠</font>

Turn ($3450) J<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='black'>♠</font> 4<font color='black'>♠</font> 9<font color='black'>♠</font>

River ($3450) J<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='black'>♠</font> 4<font color='black'>♠</font> 9<font color='black'>♠</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font>

BTN shows J<font color='red'>♦</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font>

BTN wins $3450

With a raise I think now this is not a good time to 3-bet shove. I wouldn't say it's a value shove. I was thinking it was a re-steal with a hand that flops well if called. Folding would be the worst. Calling seems ok but not really ideal.

Villian is a 47/19 over 57 hands.

What do you think?
 
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WiZZiM

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seems fine to me, and it is pretty much a value 3bet as he still likely calls with worse hands like KJ QJ etc
 
AgentXtreme

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It's a correct play you expect the btn raise steal with any hand , KQo is a good hand to re steal , so it's just bad luck
 
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SHAEH2012

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how did a set beat a fullhouse?
 
Jim Brown

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Looks fine. BTN should be opening wide, just unlucky. You can't 3b/fold 17 bb, 3b and flat calling would be bad in general and ends the same way on this runout.
 
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learnpoker

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Thanks guys,
I wasn't really what to consider my 3-bet(a resteal or a value bet). and next time I will format the hand better take care guys.
 
Shumkoolie

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I'm kind of on the fence on this one. You still have 16 BB's if you fold so it's not like you're in terrible shape. Villain here is pretty active so your shove does fairly well against his calling range. You just happened to run into a better hand, though you had two overs so you weren't dead. At the same time though, hands like KQ/KJ are so tricky to play because the top of villain's range has you in such terrible shape a good amount of the time that I'd rather see hands like 56/67/78/89 that have connectivity because your equity is higher against AK/AQ/AJ.

I don't love the play here in this pot, given that you still have 16 BB's, but I don't hate it either, especially based on this opponent's activity.

Just something to think about.
 
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WiZZiM

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I'm kind of on the fence on this one. You still have 16 BB's if you fold so it's not like you're in terrible shape. Villain here is pretty active so your shove does fairly well against his calling range. You just happened to run into a better hand, though you had two overs so you weren't dead. At the same time though, hands like KQ/KJ are so tricky to play because the top of villain's range has you in such terrible shape a good amount of the time that I'd rather see hands like 56/67/78/89 that have connectivity because your equity is higher against AK/AQ/AJ.

I don't love the play here in this pot, given that you still have 16 BB's, but I don't hate it either, especially based on this opponent's activity.

Just something to think about.

yes well said. The main reason you need to be really careful in spots like this is due to the fact that bad villians like this tend to play linear ranges, so they will raise/call stuff we have dominated, but also raise call a huge chunk that has us beat. So usually vs looser opponants who fold a lot we would 3bet jam the top of our range, 3bet jam hands that run well and are safe like 98s etc, then have a decent calling range also which would include stuff like KQ KJ etc.

But vs villians like above who play linear ranges and tend to overvalue hands, you are probably better off just 3bet jamming a little wider to include stuff like KQ at the widest to take advantage of him calling with KJ QJ and wider. but take out the bluffing range or you will get caught to often with 98s vs A3 or whatever he wants to call with. Also you will want to open your calling range up as well and outplay him postflop a bit, which is tricky considering our stack size, but totally doable.
 
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chronical

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IMHO: you've caught a cooler.
Even if this hand went to flop and SD I don think you wouldn'tу get away from it. He masked his hand with a min raise. 47/19 you could have put him on a J9s+,Ax easy and would bet 3 streets(top pair into flush dro. you are short so you have to value bet). He does not jam his set on the flop so you are not scared he has one

he played good, you just got unlucky =)
 
luiaguila

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is the bubble think you have to be aggressive auqnue can be a value bet because everything indicates that
 
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fooltiltguy

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Good play!

You done good! Most of the time in this spot you are going to see a raise from the button. You had a strong hand and made the right play in my opinion but got unlucky. If you tighten up here you risk not making crucial chips. Keep grinding! :jd4:
 
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learnpoker

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So I decieded to use a little math on this for discussion sake. And please tell me if something I did is completely wrong cus I am trying to get better.

I used the red chip fold equity calculator to find out how much of the time the villain needs to fold for me to break even. If I use a the widest range of 19% then I don't need any fold equity cus KQo has 49% equity against the whole range.

When I plug in the 13.73% range (182combos) we have 44.5% equity. I need 20% of his range to fold to BE. Roughly 37 combos.


So KJo,QJo,QTs,JTs,66= 38 combos and I start making money based on fold equity.

Conclusion: Against his widest range it's a +EV shove without folds. Against a tighter opening range 13% you only need a few hands to fold to BE. The main question still is how much does he fold to 3-bets on the bubble. We don't have stats on that with only 50 or so hands, but interestingly with the tight range we can also shove 66 and still have 44.5% equity.
 

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SuzdalDEcor

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So I decieded to use a little math on this for discussion sake. And please tell me if something I did is completely wrong cus I am trying to get better.

I used the red chip fold equity calculator to find out how much of the time the villain needs to fold for me to break even. If I use a the widest range of 19% then I don't need any fold equity cus KQo has 49% equity against the whole range.

When I plug in the 13.73% range (182combos) we have 44.5% equity. I need 20% of his range to fold to BE. Roughly 37 combos.


So KJo,QJo,QTs,JTs,66= 38 combos and I start making money based on fold equity.

Conclusion: Against his widest range it's a +EV shove without folds. Against a tighter opening range 13% you only need a few hands to fold to BE. The main question still is how much does he fold to 3-bets on the bubble. We don't have stats on that with only 50 or so hands, but interestingly with the tight range we can also shove 66 and still have 44.5% equity.

It about push from BU or SB, but not vs raiser or not?

Normal all-in. with 16bb... IMHO
 
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