The know when a hand is not worth it

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MaxMill

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People might call me a nit for this but... Have you ever made your decision solely on the conclusion that.. "Its not worth it".. Example...

You are in a tournament you have played for hours on end.. You have outlasted 2,000 people and only you and 15 other players are left.. As you check the payouts you realize how much is really on the line here! You have a 5th place stack of 1,100,000

blinds are sitting at 10/20k

You pick up kings on the button.

Action goes A raise to 100k. A call... Then the guy to your right re raises all in. The all in is a 1.8 mill stack.

First off you have nothing commited to this pot. You see the action and know these players are solid as you have played with them for awhile now.. The guy who is shoving HAS to have Aces, Kings or Queens. And the chance of the man who raised or called the original raise having a good hand is very likely.. As well as the one who opened the pot has 1.3 mil....

Do you ever fold kings?

If so is it to some situation like this or do you need MORE action in front of you to just muck them?

This is one of the only times I mucked kings pre flop... I would have lost to AA and JJ.. Jacks hit a turn set.. And to top it all off in the end.. I took second place for a few thousand dollars.. This is a true story.. I was really really in my zone.. Does anyone else get so in the zone you know... Its just not worth it?
 
rock0001

rock0001

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if im deepstack and two tight player go all in preflop i might consider folding kings preflop like you did, however folding kings isnt going to be profitable in most cases. if you are shortstack that would be a terrible fold because you cant be waiting for a better spot to shove all in and also the blinds will eat you up very quickly so you have to double up and kings are a very strong preflop to shove all in as they are only losing to aces on preflop. in your case you have 55 bb so i think i would just shove all in in that spot, with more than 100 bb i could maybe fold if im against 2 deepstack players who play very solid and only get involved in very few pots.
 
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seghill

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will often fold KK whatever my position if 2 more are all in - the odds are not all that great and it's sometimes fun to see the others battle it out.

Did it today and guess what AQJ on the flop - nothing and then another Q on the river - great to watch what happened.
 
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MaxMill

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Yeah I rarely fold kings and in most positions if you are not an aware player.. You should just jam with kings and gamble... Still with a suited A Q vs Kings the A Q has a 32% chance of winning... Sometimes its best to just avoid a bad beat or even gambling in certain situations... I feel like you should always play to win.. Not to gamble. Gambling comes when you need to.. At a small stack you NEVER fold kings but deeper in a tournament with a healthy chip stack is the only time I even consider.. Its kind of crazy thinking how deep poker can go sometimes on a different level of understanding... The great folds/ great calls/ great plays are what define you and keep you improving your game.
 
Bob23bk

Bob23bk

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You have outlasted 2,000 people and only you and 15 other players are left.. As you check the payouts you realize how much is really on the line here!

Sometimes we have to make very difficult decisions when the pay climbs are large.

First off you have nothing commited to this pot. You see the action and know these players are solid as you have played with them for awhile now.. The guy who is shoving HAS to have Aces, Kings or Queens. And the chance of the man who raised or called the original raise having a good hand is very likely..

Like you said, you're not in the pot so it's not like you gave away chips here. The excellent read on your opponents :icon_thum is very helpful, let's get some stats here...

HERO KK 18%
VIL1 AA 67%
VIL2 JJ 15%

Obviously against AA you don't want to call here (and should be glad you didn't!) But what if your read was still correct, but he'd had one of his lower hands?

HERO KK 67%
VIL1 QQ 18%
VIL2 JJ 15%

These odds look much better for you of course, and maybe your post here would be asking a different question ;) However, you couldn't put VIL2 on a hand, only that it was strong... If he'd had AKs for example:

HERO KK 53%
VIL1 QQ 19%
VIL2 AKs 28%

This is where some people are going to start disagreeing... Personally I love the fold, even though you have them both dominated: this late in the tourney do you really want a coin-flip? :confused:

(PS - These stats are rounded and may be slightly different depending on suits)
Do you ever fold kings?

I've folded AA, and even posted about it here as everybody :hahaha:

I would have lost to AA and JJ.. Jacks hit a turn set.. And to top it all off in the end.. I took second place for a few thousand dollars..

Sounds like you already got the answer to your question from a few thousand dead presidents. :party:

People might call me a nit for this but...

I've been called worse, and while plenty of people here disagree with me, I think you did the right thing (as proven by your results) so while everyone else says :thumpdown I'll be here like :withstupi
 
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MaxMill

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I've been called worse, and while plenty of people here disagree with me, I think you did the right thing (as proven by your results) so while everyone else says :thumpdown I'll be here like :withstupi

Nice break down of the potential situations and the outcomes.... Spot on.... I have never folded ace's pre flop.. Yet somehow have not seen 3 people all in in front of my aces yet.. When that day comes I might muck them myself.. I feel like the key to being a winning tournament player is to be on a different level than just hand by hand equity of odds.
 
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sasa2305

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NIce fold,but can fold KK is very hard:)
 
gus201

gus201

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First off when do you fold KK preflop ?
How Often do they win all in preflop when you have first action ?
How often do they win preflop when you have last or 2nd to last action ?
Do your opponents play for top pair ?
does either of the all in guys play or will call ones all in on suited connectors ?

This is what I try to gather when I am playing and to have it there when the time is right .

Folding I think would have been best.
1) your not the first to act
2) not olny a all in but call behind already ( not looking to be a hero)
3) is there a chance one could already have me beat ?
4) Keep the skill and situational odds in your favor. ( Hands seem to play out better in my favor with this thought )

GOOD LUCK or GOOD SKILL :) that all depends on you :)
 
yeezus

yeezus

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Man great lay down. Even with all the analysis and my gut telling me to fold. This would have been a very hard laydown for me. Congrats on the laydown and the cash.
 
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CactusCat

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Some players won't go all in with even AKs on a certain stack-size.

Sometimes you just know.

The fifth sense pattern-recognition is telling you you're beat. You didn't talk yourself out of listening to your gut, you didn't get greedy, and you made a great decision.

Fantastic soulread.
 
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