K7o jam resteal

L

learnpoker

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I am BB on the bubble w/ 19bb's. Do you think this jam is too wide? Folding is not out of the question but calling is bad. 3-betting OOP doesn't seem that good. One of those spots I am learning the hard way to play. I am not a SNG player so all help is needed. I think it's ether jam or fold.

I am not too sure on how to calculate the fold equity on how much my jam needs to work?

Villain is a 40/25 over 56 hands.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $-200(BB)
SB ($1537)
HERO ($3919)
CO ($1525)
BTN ($8019)

Dealt to Hero 7:heart: K:diamond:

CO Folds, BTN Raises To $400 (Rem. Stack: 7619), SB Folds, HERO $3719 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0), BTN Calls $3519 (Rem. Stack: 4100)

Flop ($7938) 2:spade: 8:heart: 9:diamond:

Turn ($7938) 2:spade: 8:heart: 9:diamond: 4:spade:

River ($7938) 2:spade: 8:heart: 9:diamond: 4:spade: 5:diamond:

BTN shows J:spade: K:heart:

BTN wins $7938
 
W

WiZZiM

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Not sure where to begin here, this is a huge error in so many ways.

Just a few tips to keep in mind so i don't write a massively long post.

1. when you are 2nd in chips going up against someone who can knock you out, you have to be extremely tight vs that player. this is textbook ICM suicide.

2. you don't need the chips, we're sitting great here, we can probably fold our way into the money, which is still our main goal here.

3. our hand type is garbage for making this move, it gets dominated by a huge chunk of his open/call range, stuff like AK KQ even KJ and all the pairs we are pretty much crushed by. When facing a loose opener, look to 3bet the top of your range and also a heap of suited connector type hands like 98s 67s, these run very well vs his percieved calling range, K7o just has nothing going for it at all, it's not connected, gets dominated very easily and runs pretty poorly unless you hit a king specifically.

4. respect the stack setups, here we have one clear chip leader you are the middle stack, and we have two shorter stacks, now logically the two shorter stacks are the most likely to be eliminated from the tournament, so does it make sense that we should take any risks here? The big stack can take more risks as he has everyone covered and can survive any all in, the shorter stacks can also take a few more risks as they have to do be able to survive future blind events.

5. risk/reward wise, look at what we stand to gain, and how much that helps us with our goal for the tournament, which is obviously to cash, followed closely by winning the tournament. So we risk 4k to pick up 700 chips roughly. how will that change things? we're still sitting in a clear second place, it's changed nothing, so we risk everything for basically nothing.

6. More about stack setups.

When you are the big stack:-
you can bully the whole table, but look to do so in many more smaller pots, you don't need to risk giving up your chip lead to do this, your goal is to chip away at all the other stacks to give yourself a much better chance of winning the tournament.

when you are the middle stack:-
avoid bigger stacks at all costs
pick on smaller stacks and use leverage against them

When you are a small stack:-
Pick on the stacks that are closer to you if possible.
dont blind out of the tournament get progressively looser
avoid bigger stacks, they will tend to call really wide as they can afford too.

hope this helps
 
T

trent32la

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Wiz covered things. On a 9man STT bubble, shoving K7o here is ICM suicide. In a spot like this you should be playing much much tighter than you usually would. There's a lot of playable hands here that we need to be folding or flatting with given the stack setups. K7o is just a fold in this spot.
 
C

chronical

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Not sure where to begin here, this is a huge error in so many ways.
this!!

Why no fold? K7o is ~50% of hands. yes it's K high, but still! even if you op is opening wide, he has to open with: no broadways, A, pairs, most suited cards... basicaly you beat only garbage like Q3o,93s and bluffs PRF 0_o... unless your op is a whale that is bulling the table, or uber-agrgro fish(and even then...). you need to catch something very strong on the flops otherwise your dominated on every point
Why no fold#2? 19bb is normal stack, yes, I get it, the M is growing, you are short and uncomfortable, but shoving here is not proffitable unles you get lucky
40/25 over 56 hands will usually mean a agro player with okey (for an aggro player) range. he limps a lot, and raises broad/suited gappers and ~AXs+, thous hand are better han K7o
yes, calling here would be bad, it hits your stack hard, but atleast this gives you an opportunity to see a set on the flop or something.
What hands of his range will pay you off? if he folds it's nothin, what.. like 1/20 of the stack?... he will brush it off, but if he calls... well 50% of hands beat you

conc.: no jam - fold :D
 
George Lewis

George Lewis

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The only way this works is if you cause him to fold. That right there is a red flag. You always want to have a shot at something if you are called and K7o has a shot at very little. A little too fancy here I would say. Number 3 in the above post from Wizz is what is sticking in my mind..
 
luiaguila

luiaguila

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when you face a player who is above you in chips must be very careful and your range should vary and be a little tight just depends on your opponent that if with hand must be aggressive because the chip leader almost always play many speculative hands
 
comaro

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Bad push I think. You have 2nd stake, you have 2 shorts on the table. With K7o you'll play coinflip. You was dominated and lose 2nd stake. Its not good. If you're stronger then your opp on postflop, just call preflop and play with him. If you're not fold was better in this situation.
 
87shorts

87shorts

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Foooooooooold all day long... like trent said. ICM suicide. you don't have to defend your blinds everytime. Even K7 suited is a fold there. You had a lot of time and chips to wait out a premium hand.
 
O

OutTaGetMe

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if this dude is opening 42% of hands here 22+,A2+,K2+,Q4s+,Q8o+,J8s+,JTo,T9s

you can only shove with (6.8%) 88+,AJ+

if set icmizer up right, 300man MTT $EV


even if you widen him more to around 50% 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q4o+,J5s+,J8o+,T7s+,T9o,98s

you can shove (12.2%) 66+,A7s+,ATo+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s
 
comaro

comaro

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if this dude is opening 42% of hands here 22+,A2+,K2+,Q4s+,Q8o+,J8s+,JTo,T9s

you can only shove with (6.8%) 88+,AJ+

if set icmizer up right, 300man MTT $EV


even if you widen him more to around 50% 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q4o+,J5s+,J8o+,T7s+,T9o,98s

you can shove (12.2%) 66+,A7s+,ATo+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s
where is K7o?) what about it?
 
O

OutTaGetMe

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https://gyazo.com/db80b5ece7f32fbf2b95d2901e15d92b

take a look for yourself and then see how ya feel when ya get snapped off and end up taking 4th

I personally dont see the btn snapping you off without a hand as even though his stack can withstand the beat, but he's got the right idea to put pressure on you and keep the smaller stacks in as you got the right idea of smashing this back in his face. i mean does A9 even look good to the button anymore once you jam.

but if youre gonna run the ICM stuff, it a fold. If were playing poker I like it, you put a lot of pressure on the big stack as he doesnt want to be sitting on 5k and you with 6k

but there is something to be said, if ya like money, that its a disaster if you bust before the 2 shorties, but if this dude is opening every btn on me THIS GOES RIGHT BACK IN HIS FACE EVERYTIME
 
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