Is it Sometimes Correct to Take a Chance in Tournament Poker?

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ssbn743

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This is a live $210 buy-in deep stack tournament at my local casino with 30 minute levels and $30K to start. I was a little late and didn’t actually start playing until the end of the 2nd level. The following hand takes place about halfway through level 3.

Blinds are $100/$200/$25 and I had about $29K and everyone was pretty even around the table, $25K to $35K. The player that was UTG already stuck out in my mind for not knowing what he was doing, this was very clearly one of his first live tournaments; maybe his first tournament period. He is an older man, probably close to 60 years old; I say that for no reason other than to help paint the picture.

From UTG he tries to raise to $300, the dealer immediately corrects him and makes him throw out an additional $100 chip; thereby minimum raising from UTG. I was UTG +1 and flat called with :9d4: :10d4:

This sets off a wave of calls as 5 additional players on the 9 handed table also call. It’s a pretty easy read, in my opinion, and I immediately put UTG on a hand. I had only been playing for a little over 30 minutes but he had only limped and had done so into 80% of the pots with no regard for position; a raise from this player was a clear message and what better hand to have than suited connectors; I like this spot.

Pot - ~$2800

Flop - :4d4: :10c4: :5d4:

Obviously this flop hit my hand well; it could be better but this is a nice flop for my hand. The UTG player then places a single $1,000 chip in the middle and very forcefully says “1 Thousand” as he firmly places the chip down on the felt. I was already suspicious, but I now know this player has Aces, or maybe Kings.

Now I really like this spot, I know exactly what my opponent has and even have position on him. On top of that he doesn’t know what he is doing and will nearly certainly pay me off should my plan work out. The only thing I don’t like are the 5 other hands to act after me; with that in mind I put in a raise to $2500 and every one folds to UTG just as I was hoped would happen.

The UTG player acted like he was going to fold for a solid minute (which further solidified my Aces read), then slid a black $10,000 chip out while saying “raise”, thereby making the bet $11,000.

Now, I didn’t expect that move and that sucks; I was nearly sure that he would flat call.

So let’s run the numbers:

I know I need to improve to win and count 9 flush outs, one 10, and three 9’s for a total of 13 outs – I’m going to assume that my opponent also has the Ace or King of diamonds and further adjust that number to 12. If he does have the diamond that also gives him re-draw outs as well, which I don’t like either. Yet 12 outs on the flop should yield a 40% to 50% chance of improving to the winning hand.

The pot is now over $16K giving me better than 2:1 on a call; however my hand falls right on the edge here. Even with that in mind, I’m not going to call for over 1/3 of my stack; so a re-shove or fold are my only options; I also know that he will call should I shove so I have no fold equity.

Cons

1. It’s early in the tournament and I’m sure I can find a better spot.
2. This player is not good and it’s only a matter of time before I could get his chips anyway.

Pros

1. I’m getting close to the right price; if it’s not right outright.
2. I could double up early.
3. This is a re-entry event, (re-entry, not re-buy).

I folded, like I think the correct play is. In hindsight I wish I would have just smooth called his flop bet, but hindsight is 20/20 and I did what I did for a reason. After I folded he showed :ac4: :ad4: as the dealer was pushing him the pot.

Even though I think folding is the correct play; is taking a chance here condoned by tournament poker strategy?
 
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rhombus

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Cash game easy shove, online tournament easy shove.
Live - borderline unless you plan on a reentry. If you dont plan on rentry then probably fold and wait for a better situation
 
TheKid84

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In tournament play I'm not too keen on risking all my chips with a hand I don't have yet. I understand the numbers, but that's just my preference.

I agree with the above about the reentry. If your intent is to reenter, I would say this is a good place to shove and hope to hit.
 
psychotie

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I think the fold was the right move. As u said its early in the tournament and its not the time to put ur Stack on a risk. Later ITM it will be diff
 
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doomasiggy

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You have more than 12 outs on the flop here.

9 diamonds + 2 tens + 3 nines = 15 outs

I don't like calling pre, and I especially don't like calling pre, betting the flop then folding when we hit a monster draw.
 
S3mper

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Yes you need to take chances in tournament poker but maybe not this early. I think that I would of just called his bet on the flop though I understand the raise because of 5 people behind you.

but if your going to fold to a re raise I think I would just of called because you put him on AA-KK and I think that AA-KK would re-raise here often especially some one who doesn't play much and see's AA as the uncrackable nuts.

At the same time I think raising was the correct move so IDK (lol) tough spot.
 
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ssbn743

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You have more than 12 outs on the flop here.

9 diamonds + 2 tens + 3 nines = 15 outs

I don't like calling pre, and I especially don't like calling pre, betting the flop then folding when we hit a monster draw.

You’re right – I was thinking that my pair outs were also diamonds. It doesn’t really change anything though; I’m still in the same predicament; which is probably why you don’t like the pre-flop call.

I was wondering if anyone would have a problem with calling pre here and I can see why; then again, I’m so deep (as is the rest of the table) raising doesn’t blow my skirt up either.

I have almost 145BB/52M so if I were to raise I would have made it $1200. The table was very loose and like all early tournament levels filled with lots of weak players that limp in and call any raise.

If I 3-bet to $1200 pre-flop here I would likely lose a few players, but I’m sure there would be at least 2 additional callers. I didn’t think the UTG player was capable of 4-betting, but I was obviously wrong on that, so there’s also that variable, but assuming he flats the 3-bet the pot is still less than $5K. He would have then bet his $1K to $2K, I would have raised to probably more like $3K to $6K and he would have 4-bet. So it’s the same spot with the exception that I lose much more with a fold. This is all speculation anyway since I really don’t know how much he would have bet; maybe he would have checked the flop; who knows?

But you’re right, I probably should have 3 bet pre-flop, that would have thinned the field like I did on the flop and put me in a much better spot - I could’ve even 3-bet/shoved the flop and had some fold equity.

So I have been thinking about that aspect as well, clearly, I could have played this hand better; nonetheless, this is an easy spot to get in to and I seem to find my way here more times than I would like - is the fold the right play?
 
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kanselau

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You’re right – I was thinking that my pair outs were also diamonds. It doesn’t really change anything though; I’m still in the same predicament; which is probably why you don’t like the pre-flop call.

I was wondering if anyone would have a problem with calling pre here and I can see why; then again, I’m so deep (as is the rest of the table) raising doesn’t blow my skirt up either.

I have almost 145BB/52M so if I were to raise I would have made it $1200. The table was very loose and like all early tournament levels filled with lots of weak players that limp in and call any raise.

If I 3-bet to $1200 pre-flop here I would likely lose a few players, but I’m sure there would be at least 2 additional callers. I didn’t think the UTG player was capable of 4-betting, but I was obviously wrong on that, so there’s also that variable, but assuming he flats the 3-bet the pot is still less than $5K. He would have then bet his $1K to $2K, I would have raised to probably more like $3K to $6K and he would have 4-bet. So it’s the same spot with the exception that I lose much more with a fold. This is all speculation anyway since I really don’t know how much he would have bet; maybe he would have checked the flop; who knows?

But you’re right, I probably should have 3 bet pre-flop, that would have thinned the field like I did on the flop and put me in a much better spot - I could’ve even 3-bet/shoved the flop and had some fold equity.

So I have been thinking about that aspect as well, clearly, I could have played this hand better; nonetheless, this is an easy spot to get in to and I seem to find my way here more times than I would like - is the fold the right play?
why do you want to thin the field ? you want as many callers as possible with this hand ,that way if you hit your hand hard you have better implied odds.

3bet here is just terrible ,
1 you are building the pot with a weak hand
2 you are thinning the field witch reduces your chance of getting paid if you hit hard
3 you put UTG on AA and are just asking please 4 bet me

once you hit your strong draw , you don't need to go nuts with it , smoothe call flop bet and get all of old mans stack on the turn/river when you hit your hand .
this unexperienced player is not folding his AA there like the nuts for him no mater what cards come out .

when playing unexperienced players don't get fancy , play ABC poker
hit your hand first before you start splashing around

as played 5bet shove , you invested enough money into the pot now , cant fold , im going for the big pay day and if I miss re entry
 
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TheKid84

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why do you want to thin the field ? you want as many callers as possible with this hand ,that way if you hit your hand hard you have better implied odds.

3bet here is just terrible ,
1 you are building the pot with a weak hand
2 you are thinning the field witch reduces your chance of getting paid if you hit hard
3 you put UTG on AA and are just asking please 4 bet me

once you hit your strong draw , you don't need to go nuts with it , smoothe call flop bet and get all of old mans stack on the turn/river when you hit your hand .
this unexperienced player is not folding his AA there like the nuts for him no mater what cards come out .

when playing unexperienced players don't get fancy , play ABC poker
hit your hand first before you start splashing around

as played 5bet shove , you invested enough money into the pot now , cant fold , im going for the big pay day and if I miss re entry

I concur with a majority of this.

Primarily, when I'm trying to catch that draw, I want to keep the pot low until I hit, and then bump up the price at a later street. It helps to avoid those 4 bet situations. Especially in this situation, when you had a read as to where you were beat (him having K's or A's), you're really hoping for that next diamond. Having 2-3 other players in the hand wont do you horrible, chances of them shooting for a flush as well is very slim.

I also agree with the ABC poker with rookies. They're predictable with their plays, and typically a rookie with A's or K's on that board will love his two whole cards. They will want to be the last to act, and probably wont want to just smooth call.
 
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ssbn743

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why do you want to thin the field ? you want as many callers as possible with this hand ,that way if you hit your hand hard you have better implied odds.

3bet here is just terrible ,

1 you are building the pot with a weak hand
2 you are thinning the field witch reduces your chance of getting paid if you hit hard
3 you put UTG on AA and are just asking please 4 bet me

once you hit your strong draw , you don't need to go nuts with it , smoothe call flop bet and get all of old mans stack on the turn/river when you hit your hand .

this unexperienced player is not folding his AA there like the nuts for him no mater what cards come out .

when playing unexperienced players don't get fancy , play ABC poker
hit your hand first before you start splashing around

Yeah I don’t really like the 3-bet pre here either and I didn’t do it in the game either; mainly this is based on the fact that I am in early position. However, while you would normally want a lot of callers with suited connectors, in this case I knew I had to beat a made hand and had already identified who I needed to beat; by raising I can attempt to isolate that player – a player that I also didn’t think was capable of 4-betting.

We know now that a 3-bet pre flop would have been a disaster – but with the information I had at the time I think it has some merit.

The only other option is an outright fold pre flop – which I think is super nitty in this situation.

I like the ABC poker thing; Mike Caro would call it Fancy Play Syndrome. The only reason I 3-bet the flop, the only reason, is because of the 5 hands aft of mine; if those hands are not present this is a flat call and re-evaluate the turn all day long. He likely would have bet 2K on the turn and 5K on the river no matter what cards fell and I would have got a great price to crack.

as played 5bet shove , you invested enough money into the pot now , cant fold , im going for the big pay day and if I miss re entry

I wanted to do this, believe me; but I don’t have a great deal invested here (10% of my deep stack) and still have over 100BB; I don’t understand this “can’t fold” talk. Re-entries are something I avoid like the plaque. You have to remember that a re-entry event is not structured like a re-buy event; it’s a very questionable +EV play to re-entry these tournaments – I have done it before, but not very often; for that reason I think the “Screw it, I’ll re-buy” mentality is a bad idea.
 
A

AvaloNNN

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This is bad played.
There is no such thing as risking your tournament life when all the odds and math is at your side. When you fold here, you are making a terrible decision, just terrible. You had 14 outs by the river(no need to discount your outs here)which makes you 1:1 to win the pot. You had 2:1 on your money, which is at least call (i prefer shove instead), and by shoving you have even better chances of winning.
And if any opponent has any brain in his head he should seriously consider folding here, cause you are clearly representing a set. But even without fold equity in this spot, this is just bad bad... bad played. You should never play against the rules of math.
GL
 
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inflnlte

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I would just call his 1k and then see what happens on the turn.
 
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ssbn743

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This is bad played.

There is no such thing as risking your tournament life when all the odds and math is at your side. When you fold here, you are making a terrible decision, just terrible. You had 14 outs by the river(no need to discount your outs here)which makes you 1:1 to win the pot. You had 2:1 on your money, which is at least call (i prefer shove instead), and by shoving you have even better chances of winning.

And if any opponent has any brain in his head he should seriously consider folding here, cause you are clearly representing a set. But even without fold equity in this spot, this is just bad bad... bad played. You should never play against the rules of math.

GL

Keep playing strictly by the math and let me know how that works out for you in tournament poker.

This is not a cash game, you must go against the numbers from time to time, and you must be right whichever way you choose to win a poker tournament.

Seriously, this is just a ridiculous statement.
 
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This is a live $210 buy-in deep stack tournament at my local casino with 30 minute levels and $30K to start. I was a little late and didn’t actually start playing until the end of the 2nd level. The following hand takes place about halfway through level 3.

Blinds are $100/$200/$25 and I had about $29K and everyone was pretty even around the table, $25K to $35K. The player that was UTG already stuck out in my mind for not knowing what he was doing, this was very clearly one of his first live tournaments; maybe his first tournament period. He is an older man, probably close to 60 years old; I say that for no reason other than to help paint the picture.

From UTG he tries to raise to $300, the dealer immediately corrects him and makes him throw out an additional $100 chip; thereby minimum raising from UTG. I was UTG +1 and flat called with :9d4: :10d4:

This sets off a wave of calls as 5 additional players on the 9 handed table also call. It’s a pretty easy read, in my opinion, and I immediately put UTG on a hand. I had only been playing for a little over 30 minutes but he had only limped and had done so into 80% of the pots with no regard for position; a raise from this player was a clear message and what better hand to have than suited connectors; I like this spot.

Pot - ~$2800

Flop - :4d4: :10c4: :5d4:

Obviously this flop hit my hand well; it could be better but this is a nice flop for my hand. The UTG player then places a single $1,000 chip in the middle and very forcefully says “1 Thousand” as he firmly places the chip down on the felt. I was already suspicious, but I now know this player has Aces, or maybe Kings.

Now I really like this spot, I know exactly what my opponent has and even have position on him. On top of that he doesn’t know what he is doing and will nearly certainly pay me off should my plan work out. The only thing I don’t like are the 5 other hands to act after me; with that in mind I put in a raise to $2500 and every one folds to UTG just as I was hoped would happen.

The UTG player acted like he was going to fold for a solid minute (which further solidified my Aces read), then slid a black $10,000 chip out while saying “raise”, thereby making the bet $11,000.

Now, I didn’t expect that move and that sucks; I was nearly sure that he would flat call.

So let’s run the numbers:

I know I need to improve to win and count 9 flush outs, one 10, and three 9’s for a total of 13 outs – I’m going to assume that my opponent also has the Ace or King of diamonds and further adjust that number to 12. If he does have the diamond that also gives him re-draw outs as well, which I don’t like either. Yet 12 outs on the flop should yield a 40% to 50% chance of improving to the winning hand.

The pot is now over $16K giving me better than 2:1 on a call; however my hand falls right on the edge here. Even with that in mind, I’m not going to call for over 1/3 of my stack; so a re-shove or fold are my only options; I also know that he will call should I shove so I have no fold equity.

Cons

1. It’s early in the tournament and I’m sure I can find a better spot.
2. This player is not good and it’s only a matter of time before I could get his chips anyway.

Pros

1. I’m getting close to the right price; if it’s not right outright.
2. I could double up early.
3. This is a re-entry event, (re-entry, not re-buy).

I folded, like I think the correct play is. In hindsight I wish I would have just smooth called his flop bet, but hindsight is 20/20 and I did what I did for a reason. After I folded he showed :ac4: :ad4: as the dealer was pushing him the pot.

Even though I think folding is the correct play; is taking a chance here condoned by tournament poker strategy?


some very good points and I agree with most of what you say as i have a similiar thought process in that position,

I think early in the tournament it would of been best to just flat call build up that pot , if the turn comes a diamond, you can check again, no one is likely to put a crazy raise in 5 way without the goods at this point and the added benifit of more calls,
obviously the aces villain is going to think he's good if hes not on the same thought level as some of us here may be... so he may raise big as the diamonds may scare him or because he has K/A of diamond....

then you just hammer him on the re-raise everyone folds, he may snap call if he has ace of diamonds and doesnt know his implied odds but like you say hes running 8 outs and 3 aces 11, 22%
so your over a 4/1 favourate with the push and the addition of added fold equity may give you an added 30% if only 70% of players are gonna call with on pair at this point....
(i know im folding my aces without a diamond 5 way on a re-raised flush draw)

Howeverrrr as for taking a risk.. given its a rebuy tournament and the prize for first place its a feesable risk to take if you have a good edge,your chances of taking down this tournament with a double up early are significantly higher,
your in a great spot to dominate from there in and be the table captain dictate the game
 
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steveiam

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For me i would have just called the 1k raise. i would not have worried about any other calllers at this point. See what the turn brings if you imptove to a flush or two pair you would now proberbly have the best hand.
 
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I'd take the risk to have the stack, especially with the re-entry available.
 
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Since it was a re entry i would definatley take the risk to have a big stack, if it were a freezeout i would fold pre flop.
 
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doomasiggy

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It's not about how deep we are. We should fold pre because we can easily get raised on by one of the seven players left to act. Once we've made the mistake of calling pre however we can't compound that mistake by raise folding the flop.

We should fold pre. Once we've called we should just flat call the flop.
 
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baudib1

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it's pretty much always correct to take chances in tournament play.
 
quintass

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Never sacrifice your stack so early on, never! No one wants to be on the rail so early in the game, wheres the fun in that. "Build Bigger Stacks early on, take Bigger Risks later on". I find that works pretty well.
 
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Keep playing strictly by the math and let me know how that works out for you in tournament poker.

This is not a cash game, you must go against the numbers from time to time, and you must be right whichever way you choose to win a poker tournament.

Seriously, this is just a ridiculous statement.

Really?

Math is an essential part of poker. Every poker decision is based on math!

So, how do you play if you don't play by the math ? How do you make your decisions? LEt me guess, you play by your gut instinct, lol?
Something told you this old man is a fish with aces and you just decided to go against the math and fold? Even if you were so sure about your instinct, this fold is mathematically incorrect.
The only time you can partially ignore the math is around the bubble or later in the money when you are faced with big pay jumps. Then you should consider some ICM factors as well etc...

Of course I will always play by the math, just like any other good player will do, lol, cause it's the only way to always bring the right decision.
And yes, I played a lot of tournaments and had a lot of success.

Not to mention the rest of your play in this particular hand...several mistakes...
 
S3mper

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Really?

Math is an essential part of poker. Every poker decision is based on math!

So, how do you play if you don't play by the math ? How do you make your decisions? LEt me guess, you play by your gut instinct, lol?
Something told you this old man is a fish with aces and you just decided to go against the math and fold? Even if you were so sure about your instinct, this fold is mathematically incorrect.
The only time you can partially ignore the math is around the bubble or later in the money when you are faced with big pay jumps. Then you should consider some ICM factors as well etc...

Of course I will always play by the math, just like any other good player will do, lol, cause it's the only way to always bring the right decision.
And yes, I played a lot of tournaments and had a lot of success.

Not to mention the rest of your play in this particular hand...several mistakes...

 
LuckyBundy13

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You have more than 12 outs on the flop here.

9 diamonds + 2 tens + 3 nines = 15 outs

I don't like calling pre, and I especially don't like calling pre, betting the flop then folding when we hit a monster draw.

Pretty much what this guy said. That flat pre OOP is horrible. It gets worse as you play the hand.
 
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