Originally Posted by missjacki
suit yourself. I realize it CAN happen. just like kings CAN run into aces all in preflop (in fact your kings will run into aces a lot more often than you'll face set over set on the flop). Just because it CAN happen doesn't mean you need to guard against it. An asteroid can hit the earth at any time essentially wiping out human civilization; but it's not productive to my life as a whole to worry about it or even really think about it.
The reason I've come to this conclusion of "don't fold a set on the flop" is because I've learned through the school of hard knocks. I've folded sets on the flop a few times because I knew I just "had" to be beat because of the action. So, I make a tough fold and get shown an overpair vs. 2 pair. Or an overpair with a flush draw vs. a smaller set. Or a big combo draw vs 2 pair. (all 3 of those really happened).
And then there are the times that I didn't fold, got shown a monster hand such as a straight or a flush, and then the board pairs and I scoop. Sets are hard to flop and too strong to fold, ESPECIALLY in tournament poker where you don't have all the time in the world to wait for rock solid situations.
just my opinion of course!
Please realize we are talking MTT not Cash games. So, no I wouldn't worry about an asteroid hitting me, unless I were in space - then I would be worried. And for your example to be valid, on earth would be a cash game and in space would be the MTT!! So, yes, you worry about those asteroids that can hit you. Ask NASA - they most certainly do.
In any MTT you have to survive, period. No, that does not mean playing scared, but it does mean you need to learn how to read a board
and think - think! - about what the other guy could have, especially when it could end your game if you are wrong.
Look, I get what you are saying, and no, in many MTT's the levels are such you cannot wait all day. Yet, what kills off most players in these games? Refusing to let go of a hand that could be dominated in all in situations. Looking at the example of Phil Ivey I posted, notice he started the hand with 140 (!!) big blinds! Would you not ask "what is he betting so much with? Two pair? A flush draw?" How about "I cannot call, only go all in - will he fold?" Not after committing almost 1/4 of his stack - would he do that on a draw or with only 2 pair? Not likely.
What he should have asked was "what can I beat?". The answer to that was one or two pair - could not beat a higher set, could not beat a flush if the guy made it....what else could a pro be betting so big with and why? A set was obvious here, as the large bet indicated he wanted to remove any flush draws from the pot. Pot was raised coming in, 3 more called to see the flop...what do most people flat with pre flop? Pairs are at the top of the list. Another set looked very likely. Would you go to war with only top 2 when a set could well be out? No, so he had to have a set as well.
Two pair did not even make sense, as he would have had to flat a raised 4-way pot with only A-10 or A-3
. Forget A-3, would he flat with A-10? Maybe, yet even if he did and flopped two pair he does not want to risk that flush hitting and most likely would have flat called with his two pair or raised just enough to isolate - not put in the huge 3-bet that he did. He came over the guy for almost 1/2 the pot! After the initial raiser C-bets into 3 other players UTG, a clear and obvious sign of strength?
Why do I think this? Because the impossible
was that he was betting big into the original raiser with 2 pair or a flush draw. The improbable
was that he also had a set. "If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". Bang, he has a set, my 333 is no good.
The whole idea of never folding a set on the flop is just ridiculous in an MTT. Lets say you have AA, flop comes AKQ, all spades, and there is a bet, a re-raise and another raise before you. Do you really think your set is good? So you shove, find out at least one of the four of you have the flush, and now your drawing to 6 outs - 3 kings or 3 queens. Or lets say you call down to the river and you still have only a set and one guy shoves after you fail to make a full - are you really going to call all of your chips off with a set into a obvious flush or straight? This is where calling stations are born, my friend. Calling stations and table Sheriffs, who just want to "make sure I'm really dead" (?!?) Sorry - "make sure he really has it". You know - keep 'em honest! Well, keeping them honest can often lead to going out after hours/days of play with nothing to show for it but the satisfaction he wasn't bluffing
I think "playing scared" can also mean refusing to fold a hand that could be dominated just because the guy might
have a weaker hand...or be bluffing.....and just is not good MTT strategy. In any MTT you will fold the best hand almost as often as you bluff others off of hands on scary boards. Never folding a set on the flop is a clear weakness likely to be exploited by other players.