re: Poker & is it every good to call when short stacked(15BB or under)
Well, I decided to do so math to help me answer this question, tell me what you think. The math is going to quite rough as there are too many variables to do accurately; criticism welcomed!
Ok, so let's make a scenario: let's say that I'm at my local venue, I've got 13BB and am the big blind. They're were 5 limpers and I look down at J10o. Ok, their is 3 options:
1) Fold. This move has a EV of 0. Obvious, huh? The good thing to this is that you could potentially get a better hand to make a move. Not going to focus on this though
2) Call. Ok, now this part is going to be quite dodgy; hopefully it is reasonably accurate. At this particular venue they call quite lightly, so I doubt moving all here would be a profitable move. 2/3rds of the time I will miss entirely. The 1/3rd of the time I do hit I'll bet 2.5 blinds. I expect most players would call if they hit any piece of the board, such is most of these players nature. Therefore, 5x1/3 of the time players will call. Therefore, 10.2 will be on the turn on average(6 from blinds, 4.2 from calls[5/3 *2.5 =4.2]). If I bet again they'd either fold , or call me till the end. So, if they fold, I'll make on average 3.4 (10.2*1/3=3.4). If they call till the end, I reckon I'd be ahead more than 50% of the time. I could do lots of math to figure out how often they'd call till the end and when they do, how often I'd beat them, but I'll see what you guys think first.Let's say I'd win 60% of the time. If they did call till the end I would make 17.52 on average (I have 13BB. Called once, then raised 2.5. Therefore I'd have 9.5BB left when there's 10.2 in the pot. Let's say one player call till the end. 10.2 +9.5+9.5=29.2 29.2*.6=17.52)
Actually, the all in EV is probably a little less, as I did not count in when I call and miss a flop, that would reduce my stake until I actually hit.
3) Ok, now for going all in. They call all sorts of stuff here. I reckon that they'd:
call suited connectors from 34 till 89, raise the rest
call all aces, raise from A8 onwards
call all kings, raise from K9 onwards
call all queens, raise from Q9 onwards
call all jacks, raise from J9 onwards
call all pockets, raise from 77 onwards
Now that I am going over this, I'd reckon they'd call more hands than that and raise much less, which makes errors in the data.
I think they'd call an all in with:
Therefore, each player would fold 2/3rds of the time (did it through combination's; going to skip some of the math. If you are actually interested then ask and I'll add how I did it.) Therefore, on average I'll get 2 callers. This is flawed though; they are less likely to call my all in if someone else has already done that, and I havn't factored in image whatsoever; when I'm justing starting to go into push/fold mode, people's calling range would be MUCH higher, but after I have abused it a fair bit they tend to call me this lightly. I guess for this scenario we can presume that I have being pushing a lot.
Ok, now I did some more math that I will omit, but J10 suprisingly has 50% equity against they're calling range. This to is flawed as it is presuming that people are not slow playing monsters, and I think players would probably raise less of those hands and call more of them, which makes my equity lower. Let's say then that my equity is 45%, and that if one player calls my all in another won't call it. Therefore, I'll get called 2/3rds of the time.
When they fold I'll make 5 BB. This happens 1/3rd of the time so I will make 5/3 BB from stealing. When they call I'll make 30*.45*2/3, which is 9. So, from going all in I'd make 5/3+9 which equals 14.3, so approximately 14BB on average.
So, If I call I'll make 3.4BB on average if I don't get much action, and 17.5BB If I do. If I go all in, I'd make 14BB on average.
This is obviously quite rough; I think the players don't call/limp that lightly, I just probably notice it more when someone does call really lightly. I should also work out how often that they would call an all in if they call the turn, so that I can compare the numbers. However, by doing this I think that if I have been raising all in a little too much then I should slow down and play mediocre hands in decent position. This will help disguise a monster too if I want to slow play.
Obviously, this probably won't apply to most of you guys as you probably don't play with these sorts of players. Still, let me know what you think. I am going to play at the local venue in a few hours so I'll take note of what cards they limp with and what they call with.