Is it ever too early?

jscales

jscales

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My question is if it ever too early in a tournament to commit yourself to a hand?

This is the hand that makes me wonder this...

The blinds are 50/100 no ante... I am in the bb with 4300 in chips. The average stack at the table is around 3000. There are two large stacks to my right.

Under the gun limps into the hand and under the gun+1 raises to 300. It folds around to me. The UTG player already has his cards in hand ready to fold. The UTG+1 lost a significant pot a few hands later and is the short stack at the table with only 1900 behind after the raise.

I have QJ off suit and make the call.

The flop comes 10-9-9 rainbow. Open ended here I decide to try to take the pot down here... with 800 in the pot I make 350. After some deliberation the player shoves their remaining stack in.

My thought process here is this... If they have 10-9 I am in big trouble but that hand is unlikely with a raise pre-flop from early position. If they have a hand like A-9 I am a little more than 33% to win the hand. A-10 would make me the favorite in the hand at about 57% to win, because I would have 14 outs.

This is where my question comes in. We are still early in the tournament and there is a lot of play left. If I make the call I lose 19 bb's blinds and will be left with 17.5 bb's.

So with a lot of tournament left do I let the hand go, or do I go with because I have so many outs, and if I win the hand I am set up in good shape for the middle stages of the tournament?
 
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ph_il

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Mathematically, with 14 outs, you're getting the right price to call. You need to call 1550 to win a pot of 3100, giving you 2:1 odds. The odds of hitting one of your 14 outs on turn or river is .95:1

This is assuming they're clean outs. If your opponent has something like KQ or KJ, then your J/Q could complete their higher straight. With that said, even if you had only 9 outs for the OESD, you're still getting a good price since the odds of hitting on turn or river is 1.86:1

It's a tough situation. Mathematically, it's an easy call and there is a good chance that UTG1 is tilting from their significant loss earlier, so they can be weak and just trying to buy. At the same time, it is for a significant amount of your stack. It wont make you a fold/shove stack, but you'll be shortest at the table.

So, I guess it comes down to what are you comfortable doing? If you're fine calling with a huge draw at the risk of more than 50% of your stack, and you're fine playing with a 17.5BB stack if you miss, make the the call. If you'd rather still have an above average stack and would rather wait for a better spot to commit most/all your chips, then fold. You still have 36BBs behind. I'm not hating either decisions, TBH.

Why didn't you check behind on the flop?
 
smallfrie

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You are in level 3 of the tournament I would have folded pre and would not throw that many chips away on a non nut draw unless this was a re-entry that I planned to fire many bullets at. btw you already have one guy telegraphing folds how many other bad players to take advantage of with little to no risk at this table?

Edit:
Option one run it up or bust. Option two wait until antes hit level probably 5 and build stack. My comment above tells you I am an option two guy but I think option one is fine as long as that was always the plan.
 
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jscales

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Why didn't you check behind on the flop?

I had seen this player raise pre and fold to a bet after the flop. I felt like I could get a fold there and if they called I still had outs. I was a little surprised at the shove there... I think that is what they should do in that situation vs. a call but I didn't expect it from this particular player.
 
jscales

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You are in level 3 of the tournament I would have folded pre and would not throw that many chips away on a non nut draw unless this was a re-entry that I planned to fire many bullets at.

This was not a rebuy/re-entry tournament. That said I definitely feel comfortable with a short stack if that is turns out to be the case. The only thing that would have made me throw this hand away as opposed to defending my bb would have been the position of the raiser. I went ahead and called because they still seemed a little frustrated at previous big pot that they had lost.
 
PokerGrinder

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Not if it's the best hand preflop. Allday allin.
 
Everybodylovesdeuces

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To answer your question - It depends on the tournament. In turbos I will often try and take shots early to get a big stack so I have a chance to win. If you're starting with 10k and blinds are 50/100 and levels go up slowly then you should only be committing to hands for stacks with the nuts.

In this particular situation, what makes you feel you need to donk bet this flop? It's always going to be read for weakness. What if he has AA-JJ? Or TT, or even 88 or AK and was just committed to the hand. I think you're the one that wants to be shoving with the draw, not calling off with a draw. I'd rather check raise or just check call this flop. No need to donk off 1900 here w/Q high.
 
danndourado

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Only because you told vilain have a big loss earlier, I usually make this call. Its early and I still have 17.5bb to gamble. Its not so hard to wait again a good spot against weak player to move against.
 
jscales

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In this particular situation, what makes you feel you need to donk bet this flop? It's always going to be read for weakness. What if he has AA-JJ? Or TT, or even 88 or AK and was just committed to the hand. I think you're the one that wants to be shoving with the draw, not calling off with a draw. I'd rather check raise or just check call this flop. No need to donk off 1900 here w/Q high.

My reasoning in this situation was that three things can happen... 1) They fold and I win 2) They call and I play for cheaper than all the chips 3) They shove and it is no different for me than if I shove. Maybe that's not the right play... I'm not sure, but that was the plan.
 
Poker Orifice

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In this particular situation, what makes you feel you need to donk bet this flop? It's always going to be read for weakness. What if he has AA-JJ? Or TT, or even 88 or AK and was just committed to the hand. I think you're the one that wants to be shoving with the draw, not calling off with a draw. I'd rather check raise or just check call this flop. No need to donk off 1900 here w/Q high.

agreed ^

Aside from what you were thinking (which I'm assuming wasn't "what am I doing if villain ships it over my donkbet?"), what are you thinking that villain is thinking? (what part of your range that is strong would EVER donkout in this spot?... and that you'd have only flatted pre while OOP 'with' UTG limper yet to act). As deuces said (in this spot I think) > "It's always going to be read for weakness."
 
Everybodylovesdeuces

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The difference in the shove vs the calling the shove is you have at least a little fold equity when you shove. I can live with the calling off if you have a combo draw but her we are drawing at max to 10 outs if your Q and J are clean outs which I doubt. Likely it's 8 outs to the straight and if our villain has KK or 88 then those outs are no good and we're down to 4 outs. At least if you have a flush draw to go with it then you know some of them are clean unless he has already flopped the nuts. I can just think of way better spots to take a shot and get it in.
 
jscales

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The rest of the story

These are great comments, and I can definitely see where making the call could have been disastrous, which is why I wanted to get the feedback.

So here is the way the rest of the hand played out...

I called the all in... and the UTG folds as anticipated. The UTG+1 turns over pocket 6's giving me even more outs than I had hoped for... (4 K's, 4 8's, 3 Q's 3 J's and 3 10's for a total of 17) making me a big favorite.

I missed on the turn but hit a Q on the river.

Even though I won the hand, which eventually led me to win the tournament, the hand stuck out in my mind. I am always looking to improve my game, and I know that just because it worked out doesn't mean it was the right move.

Again, thank you all for the comments. I definitely have some different views to think about on the hand.
 
TeUnit

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the best way to think of it is..in terms of big blinds.........if you have 5 big blinds left you can shove k2 on the button, but if you have a 1000 big blinds you probably dont want to stack off post flop with 1 pair
 
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dejan85

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if you alredy call with QJ,and flop is like that you shoud see a turn definitly,you can win a lot and have a good stake...
 
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