An interesting question on Value-betting...
I saw a question on another site about how much to value bet on a particular hand. I thought I would share my thoughts and hopefully hear other players thoughts on the subject. Here is the hand and question as posted on the other site....
$15 buyin MTT. MP1 is semi tight (13/6), CO is a loose passive fish (like 50/5) over a small sample. Best guess is that at least one of them is chasing overcards. I doubt either of them will try to bluff at it 3way if I check, but the only pairs that might call a bet are 66-88 (which seem unlikely), I doubt anyone has 9x either given the action.
Also, anyone hate my turn check?
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $150(BB) Merge
Dealt to Hero 5
fold, fold, fold, MP1 calls $150, CO calls $150, fold, SB calls $75, Hero checks
FLOP ($600) 3
SB checks, Hero bets $300
, MP1 calls $300, CO calls $300, SB folds
TURN ($1,500) 3
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks
RIVER ($1,500) 3
Now a couple of responses on the other site was to bet $800 or to shove in this spot. Here was my response.
Sorry guys but I disagree here. I believe $800 is way too much for a value bet. You WANT a call right? Look at the stacks of the other 2 players in the pot. One has a little over 10bbs and the other has around 16bbs if they fold here. You have to bet fairly small for them to call. Remember your not applying pressure here or making their decision tough. My theory on value betting is you want their decision to be EASY. CALL! So I think with 2 opponents here the right amount would be around $400-500.
P.S. Some opponents will see this as weakness and raise you...which IMO would be even better in this spot.
I hope some other players will discuss this as well. Could be a learning experience for us all. Thanks!