M
MTTsniper
Rising Star
Bronze Level
10 player SitnGo payout structure 50%/30%/20%, blinds 200/400, 4 average style players left.
Big Blind - 2820 after post
Small Blind (Hero) - 1200 after post
Button - 1530
Cutoff - 8850
Hero is dealt Q10 offsuit.
Button goes allin, does Hero shove or fold? The typical answer I would expect from a lot of players, and possibly the correct play, is to fold but here I believe I would shove. What are your thoughts? Here are my reasons why I call the allin on the bubble with Q10...
1. The blinds are 200/400, if I fold here the BB stacksize along with the fact that we're in bubble play shows that most likely he will fold, leaving Button with 2130 in chips after play. The stacks would then be 2820, 2130, 8850 leaving Hero with no fold equity, a target on his back, no chance for free BBs and a necessary coinflip or worse situation considering the blinds to stack ratio.
2. We're most likely behind, but most likely not dominated beyond 65-35 considering the position of shove, stacksize, and blinds. He should be shoving with a very wide range here considering the bubble play and stacksize of Hero and BB. In fact if I were Button I would be shoving with almost any hand considering the fold equity, the blinds, my chipstack, and stage. BB is in a tough spot to call and with 2820 considering that if he calls and loses he's to 1700, a very miserable place to find himself at this point in the tournament. If he calls and wins he's basically in the exact same spot he was expected to be in which is in the money 2nd place in chips and way behind the 8850 stack. If I were BB I only call with AQ+ and JJ+, I would fold 10s.
3. I would also call with Q10o because of the benefits which come with winning a showdown with Button. Button won't be knocked out completely, which means Big Blind will lose another 200 to Cutoff next hand. I would also have opportunity to pick up free BBs later considering what everyone thinks of my calling range now. They will be less tempted to raise my BB knowing I call allins with hands like Q10, without realizing I only would under very special circumstances. I will also have a nice image to get paid off going into heads up if I make it that far.
Shove ICM% 13.20
Fold ICM% 16.22
I should point out that the numbers, without taking anything else into consideration, show that the correct play is to fold. So I wouldn't knock anyone for folding here either. I just wish I knew for sure what the very best play here to make would be considering everything.
Big Blind - 2820 after post
Small Blind (Hero) - 1200 after post
Button - 1530
Cutoff - 8850
Hero is dealt Q10 offsuit.
Button goes allin, does Hero shove or fold? The typical answer I would expect from a lot of players, and possibly the correct play, is to fold but here I believe I would shove. What are your thoughts? Here are my reasons why I call the allin on the bubble with Q10...
1. The blinds are 200/400, if I fold here the BB stacksize along with the fact that we're in bubble play shows that most likely he will fold, leaving Button with 2130 in chips after play. The stacks would then be 2820, 2130, 8850 leaving Hero with no fold equity, a target on his back, no chance for free BBs and a necessary coinflip or worse situation considering the blinds to stack ratio.
2. We're most likely behind, but most likely not dominated beyond 65-35 considering the position of shove, stacksize, and blinds. He should be shoving with a very wide range here considering the bubble play and stacksize of Hero and BB. In fact if I were Button I would be shoving with almost any hand considering the fold equity, the blinds, my chipstack, and stage. BB is in a tough spot to call and with 2820 considering that if he calls and loses he's to 1700, a very miserable place to find himself at this point in the tournament. If he calls and wins he's basically in the exact same spot he was expected to be in which is in the money 2nd place in chips and way behind the 8850 stack. If I were BB I only call with AQ+ and JJ+, I would fold 10s.
3. I would also call with Q10o because of the benefits which come with winning a showdown with Button. Button won't be knocked out completely, which means Big Blind will lose another 200 to Cutoff next hand. I would also have opportunity to pick up free BBs later considering what everyone thinks of my calling range now. They will be less tempted to raise my BB knowing I call allins with hands like Q10, without realizing I only would under very special circumstances. I will also have a nice image to get paid off going into heads up if I make it that far.
Shove ICM% 13.20
Fold ICM% 16.22
I should point out that the numbers, without taking anything else into consideration, show that the correct play is to fold. So I wouldn't knock anyone for folding here either. I just wish I knew for sure what the very best play here to make would be considering everything.
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