Interesting Hand on Bubble/What's Your Move?

M

MTTsniper

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10 player SitnGo payout structure 50%/30%/20%, blinds 200/400, 4 average style players left.

Big Blind - 2820 after post
Small Blind (Hero) - 1200 after post
Button - 1530
Cutoff - 8850

Hero is dealt Q10 offsuit.

Button goes allin, does Hero shove or fold? The typical answer I would expect from a lot of players, and possibly the correct play, is to fold but here I believe I would shove. What are your thoughts? Here are my reasons why I call the allin on the bubble with Q10...

1. The blinds are 200/400, if I fold here the BB stacksize along with the fact that we're in bubble play shows that most likely he will fold, leaving Button with 2130 in chips after play. The stacks would then be 2820, 2130, 8850 leaving Hero with no fold equity, a target on his back, no chance for free BBs and a necessary coinflip or worse situation considering the blinds to stack ratio.

2. We're most likely behind, but most likely not dominated beyond 65-35 considering the position of shove, stacksize, and blinds. He should be shoving with a very wide range here considering the bubble play and stacksize of Hero and BB. In fact if I were Button I would be shoving with almost any hand considering the fold equity, the blinds, my chipstack, and stage. BB is in a tough spot to call and with 2820 considering that if he calls and loses he's to 1700, a very miserable place to find himself at this point in the tournament. If he calls and wins he's basically in the exact same spot he was expected to be in which is in the money 2nd place in chips and way behind the 8850 stack. If I were BB I only call with AQ+ and JJ+, I would fold 10s.

3. I would also call with Q10o because of the benefits which come with winning a showdown with Button. Button won't be knocked out completely, which means Big Blind will lose another 200 to Cutoff next hand. I would also have opportunity to pick up free BBs later considering what everyone thinks of my calling range now. They will be less tempted to raise my BB knowing I call allins with hands like Q10, without realizing I only would under very special circumstances. I will also have a nice image to get paid off going into heads up if I make it that far.

Shove ICM% 13.20
Fold ICM% 16.22

I should point out that the numbers, without taking anything else into consideration, show that the correct play is to fold. So I wouldn't knock anyone for folding here either. I just wish I knew for sure what the very best play here to make would be considering everything.
 
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W

WiZZiM

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i like a call here, but i don't think we're behind as you state, i think we're doing pretty well against his range. Don't worry about your table image either, it's a waste of time thinking about how others might view you, especially in low level sngs, usually you just end up levelling yourself into making a bad play or trying to justify a bad play by saying things like "oh my table image was loose".

your reasoning seems sound, you can deviate from ICM in spots like this because it cannot look into the future like you are able too, and it often under and overestimates spots like this in regards to the amount of equity it assigns to the shortstack villian is left with. it becomes a much better call if the villian is completely knocked out from the tournament, but because he is left with a short stack, ICM overestimates the amount of equity it gives to that stack, when in reality, he is basically out of the tournament a huge % of the time. it's a flaw in the algoritm basically. so if you want to model it accurately, set your and villians stacks to equal to get a much better idea of the call.
 
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WiZZiM

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just one last thing, the only time i look at table image is if i'm playing against a regular, and i'm not thinking about a specific table image, more how he views my HUD stats and i'll make assumptions based from that.
 
teh_colonel_saigon

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I think you press call and go microwave a burrito while you wait. You can come back and see if you pulled through, otherwise enjoy the burrito.

I mean, as you mentioned, you are never too far behind here. So calling is alright just off that alone.

I think it becomes clearer when you consider the alternative.(as you mentioned in point #1) You would have to shove in the next two hands to have any fold equity in the slightest. And if you shove the very next hand, the BB will be the deepstack, who would be getting odds to call you with pretty much ATC, since losing 2 extra BB doesn't mean anything to him.

So, you could hope for something under-the-gun, but ofc, you're shoving into everybody. The BB would be hard pressed to call you, since he would be severely crippled if he did.

Instead of hoping that works out, better to call it now. You'd be pretty much dead once the BB hit you again. It may be something like a 60-40, and you could even be slightly ahead, considering the situation. I would certainly consider shoving almost ATC over two short stacks on the bubble.

I like your 3rd point too, I never put much thought into that.

Just my thoughts, so please take it with a grain of salt. There are much better players than I on this site, so hopefully they will chime in too. :D

Is folding really the typical answer though? Guess I need to learn a bit more about bubble play lol
 
M

MTTsniper

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True...

More times than not the benefits of giving off a certain image don't justify the meta play I decide to make and sometimes yes it does shoot you in the foot, which it took me a while to realize because sometimes you don't know how people are reacting to your play, and then it comes more guesswork later on in hands. I really need to work on just playing more by the book. I read this one article where it asks this question about getting a "rush" when you are the "table captain" lol, when really just playing behind the scenes textbook style will win you more money in the long run. But it's a mindset I need to fix in my own game. And thanks for giving your view on the hand Wiz you seem like a strong player.
 
M

MTTsniper

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Cool...

This forum seems to be pretty active. I just signed up today and will probably be back here some more to help my game out. Thanks for your input as well Saigon it's nice to know other players would do the same. :)
 
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WiZZiM

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ya saigon, calling here will always be a mistake in terms of ICM in a vacuum. However, we can sometimes make -ev calls or look into the future to make -ev calls +EV or give us more +EV situations later in the game.

The reason why calling here is going to be bad in general is that we actually have very decent equity at the moment, when you have one huge stack, and three other simlilar stacks, our equity situation is a lot better than you might think.

having said that, think about the future here, we fold, the guy who shoves probably wins the pot uncontested a pretty big % of the time (unless you have reads the BB will call wide, then folding is great). Then the huge stack is on the BB and we simply cannot shove into him, he will likely call us with just about anything, we still have FE but a really small amount. No matter what though, we have to shove through the big stack within the next few hands, i'd prefer to take this spot an call against the stack closest to us.

if this was a slightly differant situation, lets say if the 3k stack was shoving, then it's a snap fold, because the equity we pick up isn't as great, and doubling up isn't as great for us.

i only call here against the stack that is closest to us, and it's going to be a -EV call no matter how you model it. It's basically one of the few times you can give the middle finger to ICM and call it off.
 
W

WiZZiM

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More times than not the benefits of giving off a certain image don't justify the meta play I decide to make and sometimes yes it does shoot you in the foot, which it took me a while to realize because sometimes you don't know how people are reacting to your play, and then it comes more guesswork later on in hands. I really need to work on just playing more by the book. I read this one article where it asks this question about getting a "rush" when you are the "table captain" lol, when really just playing behind the scenes textbook style will win you more money in the long run. But it's a mindset I need to fix in my own game. And thanks for giving your view on the hand Wiz you seem like a strong player.


yeah you just end up outthinking yourself, which just hurts you, not only in terms of making bad plays against the wrong players, but also in terms of being able to multitable proficiently, the more you have to think about small spots which don't increase your ROI very much, the fewer tables you can play.... It basically makes more sense to simplify things a bit and play more tables in increase your hourly.


i used to do the same, sometimes one of the bad things about thinking is that our mind can imagine things that are not there or that are not true. It's not so much about playing by the book, but choosing the most profitable option, or choosing an option that limits variance
 
rifflemao

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My first instinct is to fold, but I think you have around 40% equity or more against his range, especially if he's been shoving a lot. That seems plenty with only 3BB left.
 
T

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Its a fold since icm says so , if we played a +cev game then i would snapcall this.
 
dino

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in MTT on a bubble I would fold, no question
but in that situation, I would call
 
Carl Trooper

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Prob fold, and wait to jam on my button with hopes of a hand better than Q10.
 
H

hffjd2000

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I fold.

I have 4 chances to shove also since I will the button next.
 
goaldriversv

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i went back and forth on this one. it'll help if you knew if the table has been generally tight with the big stack being a bully and if the player on the button has been shoving regularly. either way, i'm calling. when the bb reaches the big stack, the big stack will most likely call with any two.

on another note, if this was an mtt and i was on/near the bubble. this is an instafold.
 
Salvete777

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Hmm... I think Hero should go all-in. His stack is too small to fold here. + I don't think that button have something more than K, <10.
 
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tomnovember

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10 player SitnGo payout structure 50%/30%/20%, blinds 200/400, 4 average style players left.

Big Blind - 2820 after post
Small Blind (Hero) - 1200 after post
Button - 1530
Cutoff - 8850

Hero is dealt Q10 offsuit.

Button goes allin, does Hero shove or fold? The typical answer I would expect from a lot of players, and possibly the correct play, is to fold but here I believe I would shove. What are your thoughts? Here are my reasons why I call the allin on the bubble with Q10...

1. The blinds are 200/400, if I fold here the BB stacksize along with the fact that we're in bubble play shows that most likely he will fold, leaving Button with 2130 in chips after play. The stacks would then be 2820, 2130, 8850 leaving Hero with no fold equity, a target on his back, no chance for free BBs and a necessary coinflip or worse situation considering the blinds to stack ratio.

2. We're most likely behind, but most likely not dominated beyond 65-35 considering the position of shove, stacksize, and blinds. He should be shoving with a very wide range here considering the bubble play and stacksize of Hero and BB. In fact if I were Button I would be shoving with almost any hand considering the fold equity, the blinds, my chipstack, and stage. BB is in a tough spot to call and with 2820 considering that if he calls and loses he's to 1700, a very miserable place to find himself at this point in the tournament. If he calls and wins he's basically in the exact same spot he was expected to be in which is in the money 2nd place in chips and way behind the 8850 stack. If I were BB I only call with AQ+ and JJ+, I would fold 10s.

3. I would also call with Q10o because of the benefits which come with winning a showdown with Button. Button won't be knocked out completely, which means Big Blind will lose another 200 to Cutoff next hand. I would also have opportunity to pick up free BBs later considering what everyone thinks of my calling range now. They will be less tempted to raise my BB knowing I call allins with hands like Q10, without realizing I only would under very special circumstances. I will also have a nice image to get paid off going into heads up if I make it that far.

Shove ICM% 13.20
Fold ICM% 16.22

I should point out that the numbers, without taking anything else into consideration, show that the correct play is to fold. So I wouldn't knock anyone for folding here either. I just wish I knew for sure what the very best play here to make would be considering everything.

Just follow the ICM% and fold here. QTs just give you less than 50% to get into the prize pool while folding here may bring you more.
 
W

WiZZiM

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for those of you saying fold and "shove the button with fold equity" think about how the stacks will change after the BB folds this hand. Of course yes, there is a chance these stacks will collide and we make free money, but it's a low % i would say.

we're left with 1.2k chips. the shover will boost his stack to around 2100, and the other stack will have 2800. so we're in clear last place after this hand, and guess what? the huge stack is now in the BB and we probably don't really have folding equity for the next hand, well we do, but not much considering it only cost him 800 chips out of that 8k stack to just snap up really wide with a likely better range than ours. And whoever said "fold and hope to get dealt a better hand than QT" is kind of being hopeful, QT is a well above average hand and we're not likely to get dealt better next hand. Also, adding to that, the equity we gain from colliding with this stack is FAR, FAR greater than the equity we gain from colliding with the bigger stack next hand IF we get a hand to shove with. If we collide with the stack closest to us NOW, we get value from this tournament NOW.

So basically, our future equity in this tournament sucks, so if we can model this in ICM to get it anywhere near a call we should take it. Honestly it's a spot where i wouldn't even model it, i would just use common sense and logic to determine if a call is good or not.

So for all of you saying fold, think about it. Answers like "snap folding" and "follow ICM" are not really helpful here to the OP.


Oh, btw i modelled this in ICMizer. the figures op gave above are likely not quite representative of this spot. I get QT to around a -0.30 call, which isn't a huge mistake to call off with anyways. Then the next diagram shows if we take a negative edge here to account for our poor situation next hand, a -0,40 edge is pretty close i think, and it brings QT into the call range. But without all of that, common sense and logic points to a call here for the reasons i've mentioned above. Hopefully this helps all of you guys actually think about the situation a little more before responding with one liners which don't help anyone. Basically, purposely colliding with this stack now is always going to be better than shoving the button into the huge CL next hand, the equity we get from that still leaves us in clear last place, if we shove and get it through we're left with 1600 chips, so still a ways off the other stacks, so we're in the same position next orbit and we're most likely going to be facing the same decisions next orbit.

Having said all of this, if we have reads the button is really tight here, then we can just fold it, but without that, or if we're unsure in any way, snap it off and be pretty happy about it. All you need to do is ask yourself does he jam in stuff we dominate, so hands like Q9 Q8 T9 T8s all of those types, if so, call. if not, make a nitty fold.
 

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