re: Poker & Impossible to beat rungood/playgood
Originally Posted by Nutcracker69
finally thought I broke through for (another) freeroll win late last night / this morning. I was cruising in 1st until I made the most common of my leak/mistakes. I was just trying to bully the other stacks into oblivion, and initially only had one big stack at my table to push back. Now I had another and they were both top 3 with me. Everyone else (20 to go) had significantly less. I open light with j8o and next to me shoves all in, next to him (big stack) flat calls and it is back to me. I am well aware that I'm likely 3rd best here. But I was getting great odds to see a flop and try and get lucky. When it came 8 high with possible straight draws out there I snap shoved what was likely equivalent to almost 2x pot, him having that much which was less than 50% of my stack. He snap calls and flips over kk. Didn't improve and the guy who should have won the hand did. Interestingly enough, the initial shover had ace rag and it fell on either the turn or river so we tripled him up and then I practically doubled up the other guy putting him in 1st and me down to 3rd. I AM AWARE I MADE A MAJOR MISTAKE, I don't need that analyzed.
But then I worked my way back up to 2nd and was contending for 1st. The guy in 1st was a bigger jag about it than I was. I could make a simple 2.2xBB open and he would snap shove all in. It was really annoying because I saw no value in calling him without an absolute monster. THEN, we get into a hand where I must have been in the blinds and if there were any opens they were small because I was playing 2ko. Flop comes 266r. I bet 2/3rd pot. Dude folds and he SNAP SHOVES AGAIN. I am completely fed up with his desire to not play "real poker" at this point. I'm in 2nd (or 3rd at worst) so up against the only person who can knock me out with 12-13 to go (10 paid). I take full time and run through it in my head. Sure, he could have me crushed with A2, any 6 or any pocket pair. But I rule most of that out and decide he is likely going crazy with AT BEST a weaker deuce. I give him no credit for anything better than 2q and so I call. Obviously a little excited to see I'm right with the 2q because although we'll chop almost 1/4th of the time, he is only 12% to win. But this is WPN, where 12% dreams become reality. He spikes the q winner on the river, I slam my computer shut and slam it onto the bed. I would have preferred getting knocked out in the first level and getting decent sleep than bubbling with so many chips.
I was going to post this for analysis elsewhere but it is a continuation of the rungood I was experiencing. Please critique the call if you're in my spot and you're CONVINCED that you're 65% to win.
I took all day today off from poker. I'm starting to think that even if I'm feeling so far ahead like 80/20, I may start folding my hands and not allowing my opponents to suck out for such big wins.
I would also like feedback on that idea. Thanks.
First hand you admit you made a major mistake. That's good. Obviously it's ok to bully the table as big stack but we can't recklessly be bully shoving with garbage like j8o because you WILL run into things as you did like KK. Unless everyone after you to act is short and you know must will fold out of bubble fears or one or two will call you wider , stop raising so much with junk. On the flop you paired you're 8 and are worried about st8 draws. You should also be concerned as to why the other players called your PFR. In this spot I might have bet 3/4 pot to pot and if someone shoves over the top I fold. Not sure why you bet 2x pot all in with J8. You generally want to avoid bullying the bigger stacks and some say even the tiny stacks, want to focus on the smaller but not smallest stacks.
Next spot. I often find myself chip leader and get into spots where I end up losing down the line. It happens. If I shove deep against a baby stack raise or shove before me with something like KQs and lose, whatever it was the correct call most of the time. Stack sizes matter! But again you're playing with absolute garbage, unless you limped in big blind with K2o , not sure why you're even in this hand. Sounds like you let emotions get you and you played ATC because "how dare these idiots keep shoving on me!" Obviously you made a good read in this case, he had what you thought he had. But again this is a HUGE mistake and a risky spot. He SHOVEs on a paired board and you assume your K2 is good? In this case on flop you were correct it was good, but if someone is shoving on a 266 board, they usually have an overpair, 22, or a 6 in their hand. Maybe something weird like AK or AQ. Yeah you got him behind on flop he sucked out it happens. Lesson: Don't play K2o like it's flopped nuts. I want to stress that while your hand reading here was good and may have made sense if you limped in big blind, most of the time you WILL lose this spot before the river. Most players aren't shoving with Q2 there.
But this is "WPN where 12% dreams come true" Replace "WPN" with any site. This is just silly magical thinking. Don't let your emotions dictate your play. If someone is bullying the table and you, don't just shove because you want "real poker." Pay attention , see when he shows down what crap he plays, then trap him with a massive hand and let him pay you off.
65% to win? So that means around 1/3 of the time you lose in those spots. We've all lost spots where we were like 98% to win before. It's poker.
If you're folding spots where you're 80/20 ahead and scared of someone sucking out, poker isn't for you. Sorry. The only case where one might even faintly consider folding so massively ahead is if you're on bubble and half the table is all in ahead of you and you'd get knocked out if you lost. And even then most people will take that chance no question. Folding when massively ahead is 99.9% of the time wrong. You WANT people to call with horrible odds and draw for their hands. Because long term you win. If you're a favorite 80/20, then what like 1/4 of the time you bet hard and they draw out/suck out you lose? Give me those odds all day everyday please. Because the other 3 times in that spot $$$$$ is yours.
Basically sounds like you're tilting and letting emotions dictate play. Bad idea.
Originally Posted by Nutcracker69
I've asked nicely. I want someone to SERIOUSLY show me how to block this guy because I DO NOT want to see another post of his EVER AGAIN.
I have to agree here, this PokerOrfice guy's comment is a bit offensive and possibly a personal insult. Please suspend.