ICM Quiz Question, Poker Hand Help...

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MTTsniper

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I ran into a quiz question dealing with a scenario in a 10p SnG and I answered it wrong according to ICM. I want to know if I'm truly in the wrong though and if so why, so here is the scenario...

It's down to 4 people (all average players with average hand ranges) and blinds are 300/600. Payout structure is 50/30/20.

Player A, Big Blind - 3960 chips
Player B, Small Blind - 1730 chips
Player C, Button - 6030 chips
Hero, Cutoff - 2380 chips

Hero holds KJo, it's a push or shove situation, I answered shove.

Shove ICM% 19.22
Fold ICM% 21.39

ICM shows the correct play is to fold. I don't understand. Would anyone fold here in this situation and if so what are the reasons? It seems like this is an obvious shove situation taking everything into consideration.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Yes it's a fold. We're on the bubble, it's a disaster if we go out in 4th when there is a short stack who's going to be the BB next hand and will be really short.

Our range has to be really, really strong here being first to act, like QQ+.

It's a shove if we aren't on the bubble.
 
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checkrais247

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agreed... nothing worse than being the bubble boy! Although KJ is a better than average hand in this position with everyone still to act after you would be preying for a steal only and better hands are snap calling you, now your in trouble and then realise your mistake (Known too well) Wait for a better spot / hand and let others make the mistake !! :)
 
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MTTsniper

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The shortstack wouldn't be the BB next, but if that were the case I would fold here. In fact the Hero would get the BB next, which is one big reason I shove here. If we fold here there is no fold equity or ability to take a pot without a showdown, we'd have a target on our back and we'd have to resort to most likely a coinflip, but if we take down these blinds here, which is a great chance of happening considering bubble play and the size of the blind stacks, we would be in a healthy place to make the money and in a healthier position to fight for 1st place once we do. I think I'd still have to shove here, but maybe there is something I don't know.
 
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MTTsniper

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This could be a really bad area in my game, bubble play, for example there was another question that I got wrong, situation was 10p SnG again same payout structure, stacks are 6190, 3970, 3120, Hero 1120, blinds 200/400, Hero is small blind. 6190 folds utg, 3970 goes allin, Hero holds 33, fold or shove situation. I answered shove and to my surprise read...

Shove ICM% 9.92
Fold ICM% 12.66

You only get a pair 1 out of every 16 hands and blinds are so high, I don't understand the logic behind the numbers lol. I'm trying to perfect my game so any help with this one as well as of course the other one would be great.
 
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WiZZiM

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This could be a really bad area in my game, bubble play, for example there was another question that I got wrong, situation was 10p SnG again same payout structure, stacks are 6190, 3970, 3120, Hero 1120, blinds 200/400, Hero is small blind. 6190 folds utg, 3970 goes allin, Hero holds 33, fold or shove situation. I answered shove and to my surprise read...

Shove ICM% 9.92
Fold ICM% 12.66

You only get a pair 1 out of every 16 hands and blinds are so high, I don't understand the logic behind the numbers lol. I'm trying to perfect my game so any help with this one as well as of course the other one would be great.

Depends on what the BB will call with/ You have to be careful with quiz mode, it can be extremely misleading, and give you examples which are not a comparisin of the real world.

SNG wiz cannot account for future situations, so we can call this off pretty easily.
 
10058765

10058765

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The shortstack wouldn't be the BB next, but if that were the case I would fold here. In fact the Hero would get the BB next, which is one big reason I shove here. If we fold here there is no fold equity or ability to take a pot without a showdown, we'd have a target on our back and we'd have to resort to most likely a coinflip, but if we take down these blinds here, which is a great chance of happening considering bubble play and the size of the blind stacks, we would be in a healthy place to make the money and in a healthier position to fight for 1st place once we do. I think I'd still have to shove here, but maybe there is something I don't know.

My thoughts too, but I'm by far not a SnG expert.
Tricky spot here, but as ICM shows, difference between shove and fold isn't that big so I really understand answering it wrong.
Tbh, were I in that spot, I'd shove there too I think, but the fact 3 to act behind worries me, so I might fold also.

Really, I think what I would do depends on mental stuff.

Mathematically ICM speaks for itsself, but the question ofc is hypothetical....there's not gonna be 4 players with the same skills there....

Wizzim, where are you ?
 
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WiZZiM

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ya, gotta be real tight utg there. We gain a lot by having others get it in for us, you can look at it as free money.

Also, in this particular spot, future blind situations are not a big issue, we are in the BB next hand, and if everyone is still in, we're likely going to be facing a shove from the SB who we can pretty happily call very wide.

basically put, whenever you have double the stack of another player, you should be very cautious about getting involved with bigger stacks.
 
developer716

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Yes, when you under the gun it's 100% fold
 
tARsh

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ICM is a marvelous thing. but after knowing about it for years I have to tried to with varying success adapt it from straight potential equity into a pre-sumed range as well. If I'm playing with nits or stations for example I'll adjust according to situational experiences.
 
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GeoJake

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This situation depends on the players and their calling ranges. In Nash (if everyone made the optimal decision) this would be a shove +0.06%

However this is most likely not the case. If they are tighter than Nash then it's even more +ev if they are calling looser than Nash then shoving is a mistake.

http://www.icmpoker.com/en/blog/nash-calculator-and-nash-equilibrium-strategy-in-poker/

Most ICM calculators don't account for future hands and since you are in the BB next this needs to be added into the equation. I do this manually but there is a feature called FGS (Furture Game Simulations).

This big blind is 1/4 quater of your remaining stack so folding is suddenly not looking like the best option in fact it's probably going to lose you money in the long run folding here. In FGS KJo is now +0.82 using Nash ranges so now you have some breathing room in case they call wider than Nash.

Another unaccounted for variable is that if you get called by the big stack and win you have the chip lead which is worth a lot of value at this point. If you get called by the short stack you have him covered and you would take him out and have a stack big enough to contest 3 handed. Doubling through the BB would also be great leaving two short stacks to your left $$$$

I can only assume that in most situations the SB will try to fold you out which IMO would be a mistake but since this is most likely the case it also hurts you which is another reason to go ahead and jam BUT if the SB is a maniac then that changes everything. The more volatile a bubble is (Bad players who don't care about bubbling) the more incentive to pass up on marginal or negative spot you are forced to take.

Not sure if min raising would be reasonable since you lose some fold equity but you do represent a super strong holding but obv with the intention of raise folding to 2 or 3 all ins and obv snap off vs just one player since it's most likely he was never folding anyway. This could be optimal dpeending on the player types.
 
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WiZZiM

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This situation depends on the players and their calling ranges. In Nash (if everyone made the optimal decision) this would be a shove +0.06%

However this is most likely not the case. If they are tighter than Nash then it's even more +ev if they are calling looser than Nash then shoving is a mistake.

http://www.icmpoker.com/en/blog/nash-calculator-and-nash-equilibrium-strategy-in-poker/

Most ICM calculators don't account for future hands and since you are in the BB next this needs to be added into the equation. I do this manually but there is a feature called FGS (Furture Game Simulations).

This big blind is 1/4 quater of your remaining stack so folding is suddenly not looking like the best option in fact it's probably going to lose you money in the long run folding here. In FGS KJo is now +0.82 using Nash ranges so now you have some breathing room in case they call wider than Nash.

Another unaccounted for variable is that if you get called by the big stack and win you have the chip lead which is worth a lot of value at this point. If you get called by the short stack you have him covered and you would take him out and have a stack big enough to contest 3 handed. Doubling through the BB would also be great leaving two short stacks to your left $$$$

I can only assume that in most situations the SB will try to fold you out which IMO would be a mistake but since this is most likely the case it also hurts you which is another reason to go ahead and jam BUT if the SB is a maniac then that changes everything. The more volatile a bubble is (Bad players who don't care about bubbling) the more incentive to pass up on marginal or negative spot you are forced to take.

Not sure if min raising would be reasonable since you lose some fold equity but you do represent a super strong holding but obv with the intention of raise folding to 2 or 3 all ins and obv snap off vs just one player since it's most likely he was never folding anyway. This could be optimal dpeending on the player types.

great answer! welcome to the forum :)
 
weldphaser

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This is a spot that can really play mind games with you. I think the biggest point you need to realize is position. This is a great thread, but it's also a spot that makes you question icm. it seems like a clear shove w/ 4BB's , but on the bubble, where profit/loss is the result, fold
 
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joe777

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The ICM was right cause you still in the bubble.

Only shove UTG with premium hands in this situation.
 
TeUnit

TeUnit

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player b has around 3 blinds, and he is the low stack, there is a very high icm tax on you for playing a hand and losing

icm wants you to let the guy with 3 blinds, blind out
 
skiptomyloot

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its a fold. Try to picture it with Chipleader on the button, hes more likely to raise when you fold and if you shoved, your more likely gonna get called by shortstack which can either chop you or stack you on a flip heads up.

but lets go back and say, you fold, button raises, short stack shoves,bb folds chipleader calls,... if short stack wins, the field is almost even in stacks, if short stack loses, your in the money.

kj shove looks tempting, but it'll be better off folding to give you a better chance in making top 3.
 
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only_bridge

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ICM is cruel to middle size stacks.
 
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bnasp2

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I would be tempted to push here.
I know ICM tells fold, but only by a little compared to push.
And stealing blinds or wining flip here, will help a lot for future game.

So I would say both is possible, and you should decide according you reads on other players.
 
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