ICM - Important to see this hand

As you probably noticed i've been looking more into ICM since i've been playing Double or Nothings SNG's. I've played around a bit with ICMizer and its crazy to see what the following hand showed me.


Situation
4 handed, 3 players win double their buy-in. It folds to the smallblind who goes all in.
Blinds
150/75/15
Stacks
CO: 1955
BTN: 1150
SB: 4735
HERO: 1100
ICMizer
Results showed that 99 is a very profitable call, while calling with AKs is a very big losing play. Surprising isn't it? How both those hands show such a big different result in $-ev.

personally i would only fold any of two hands against CO, against the rest i call.

shut off your ICMator or whatever and play poker. Usually 52 cards, two you know, the rest is chips and your opponent and your position to him/her/them!I get more and more to the point that ppl think with these programs, they are unbeatable.


1. everybody can have them
2. do you manage the database? are there import errors? are your figures correct?
3. every good pokerplayer ruins your stats, because he decides which cards to show or not


and besides, where are you sending your hands database to? As paypal is a daughter of e-bay ( just to mention the global awareness) how does pokerstars know, that I'm using a cracked version of HM2 and asks me every time again to update (pay for it)???


Does that ring a bell?

i posted something simiar recently i would rather make my decisions myself against gauged players than rely on info and percentages of a program or HUD, and online cards definitely fall more spectacular than a live dealt game

I am surprised that 99 is a call in consideration of the buttons stack size. You are 50 chips worse than him but he is also short and in risk of going out on the bubble. You do need to win a hand or steal at some point. I am certainly calling JJ+ but 99 I would not have done, thanks for the post. I am also surprised AKs is so bad here. Your posts help out a lot, thanks.

99 is much better hand to call an all in in this spot than AKs because AKs is only dominating Ax and Kx hands, all other hands have good equity against AKs.

AK is not a great hand in dons- especially when the stacks are deep, survival is the goal, and when you hit an Ace on the flop you are not likely to win many chips and you may lose all of them.

TeUnit said:

AK is not a great hand in dons- especially when the stacks are deep, survival is the goal, and when you hit an Ace on the flop you are not likely to win many chips and you may lose all of them.

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Totally agree now, i didn't know how bad it was to call with in Don's. Especialy versus the wide hand range it will do much worse then versus a tighter range, which sounds weird.

Wow, another mind-blowing statistic. I was wondering how wide to jam here. I've been jamming WAY to wide.







This assuming players will call 8% from their range, i reckon it may be a bit tighter in general versus opponents. Some may spew and call wider, which means we have to shove even tighter.

Another hand from the session, where i folded queens but was uncomfortable not knowing what to do. Crazy how easy of a fold this should be.

Now things get interesting. Putting this spot in the nash eq. calculator it tells us to shove any 2, but this is assuming the others play perfect and will call very tight. I guess its a super complicated game where if opponents aren't playing perfect, its hard to create your shoving range.

PokerFunKid said:

Now things get interesting. Putting this spot in the nash eq. calculator it tells us to shove any 2, but this is assuming the others play perfect and will call very tight. I guess its a super complicated game where if opponents aren't playing perfect, its hard to create your shoving range.

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what do you pretend? to play only aces? this is an obvious shove if you don't bet you'll lose. you can't play with paranoia.

Ofcourse we open shove queens there all day. Even when they are calling wider. Its just very interesting to see what kind of hands show a -$-ev when going all-in versus certain ranges. If we have the information they call this wide we will have to open fold TT and AQs here with 4 left, all having even stacks. And this calculator isn't even taking in account that they are making possible more mistakes in the next few hands which gives a higher chance of one of the opponents busting out before us.

SB which is the chip leader may be shoving a bit here sometimes with a "decent" hand.

AK is facing a pocket pair here a lot of the time,
which might be the reason the ICMizer considers this as a bad call.


If you call with AK, you're basically flipping with around 45%, which is minus EV.


You can find alot better spots than this but the blinds are running high,
so it might be a call after all :/.


99 is good in my opinion you dominate alot of the guys range of pairs
and you have good equity against his Ax range.