ICM says fold: Would you ever?

ovitoo

ovitoo

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:stupid:
 

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duggs

duggs

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need to know the pay jumps, but no we are in the worst chip position so i dont see how ICM makes us want to fold since BB is just going to wait us out.
 
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doomasiggy

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same, fairly sure this is a snap call

need to know the pay jumps, but no we are in the worst chip position so i dont see how ICM makes us want to fold since BB is just going to wait us out.

Pay jumps are already there duggs. 50/30/20, just assume it's as a share of $100 and top prize gets $50 etc etc.
 
Pascal-lf

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Surprised too. Can you show the results screen?
 
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beerzy

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wow rly suprised...
For that result the vil had to have a rly small push range, clearly a call for me in a sng with 50/30/20
 
Jillychemung

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What range was assigned to the big stack? I think you'll find it is too narrow.
 
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WiZZiM

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This clearly isn't ICM, or it is, but you haven't factored in all the variables.

ICM will hate spots like this where we're up against the chip leader, when we're competing with a similar sized stack to ours. The equity we gain here by winning really isn't very much. What a lot of people do not know here is that we're still in a mini bubble stage here. A lot of decent players i found to have massive leaks in 3 handed play, they tended to think that once they make the money they can just go nuts, thus i found playing tighter than most 3 handed helped me a shitload. Anyways, this is clearly a call for me no mattter what and ICM program suggests, we have to factor in the shit that ICM cannot. It's really just common sense stuff like "if i fold here, then i have to shove the button into the big stack and he's likely calling wide anyways." Theres a bunch of other things you can think of to support a call here too. For the interests of the op i'll try to see if i can get my SNG wiz version up and running and post a true indication of the ICM in this spot.
 
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WiZZiM

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Yeah the breakeven point here is like 18% of hands. So if button shoves more than 18% of hands (which i would assume a normal villian would). Then it's an easy call. You probably need to stop using that ICM quiz, it's pretty detrimental.
 
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Nooneinparticular

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Very very easy call. the big stack is pushing almost any 2 here, assuming he knows ICM. Assuming he knows ICM, then you have to widen your calling range because he is pushing because he knows ICM, so you will be massively ahead about 95% of the time (might be lower than 95%, but you get the idea!)

Are you really going to find a better spot to push than this with less than 6 BB's?
 
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WiZZiM

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if he has any idea of ICM, then he most certainly isn't shoving anytwo here. He should actually be leaning towards a tighter range here if anything.
 
ovitoo

ovitoo

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Surprised too. Can you show the results screen?

I can't recreate the exact hand bc its just an ICM quiz but here are results for a VERY similar hand with AQo. (AI button w/ 11,650 in chips; sb(me) 610 in chips; bb 1240 in chips. Blinds 100/200)
 

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ovitoo

ovitoo

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What did you do?

Just a quiz. I will say that I'm not folding here at least 90% no matter if it pays 3, 2 or 1.

What range was assigned to the big stack? I think you'll find it is too narrow.
Pokertracker ICM quiz doesn't allow you to set or even view vil range while taking it until results.

This clearly isn't ICM, or it is, but you haven't factored in all the variables.
It is. But the variables they let you factor in are very few. # of hands/paytable/hero range %/position/# of players<<<Thats it.
ICM will hate spots like this where we're up against the chip leader, when we're competing with a similar sized stack to ours. The equity we gain here by winning really isn't very much. What a lot of people do not know here is that we're still in a mini bubble stage here. A lot of decent players i found to have massive leaks in 3 handed play, they tended to think that once they make the money they can just go nuts, thus i found playing tighter than most 3 handed helped me a shitload. Anyways, this is clearly a call for me no mattter what and ICM program suggests, we have to factor in the shit that ICM cannot. It's really just common sense stuff like "if i fold here, then i have to shove the button into the big stack and he's likely calling wide anyways." Theres a bunch of other things you can think of to support a call here too. For the interests of the op i'll try to see if i can get my SNG wiz version up and running and post a true indication of the ICM in this spot.

Please do. Just throw it in here. Yea I'm new to PT4 but not ICM. Just went to quiz myself and this is one I got wrong.
 
Pascal-lf

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Is that ICM Eval Results SS saying that BB will call a push if you fold 39.9% of the time and overcall when you call the push 13.3%?
 
the lab man

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You are already in 3rd. I can not lay down A/Q here... If he min raises or 2x or 3x what do you do. I auto call here.
 
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WiZZiM

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I wouldnt bother with poker tracker icm its clearly way too basic
 
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