L
LukeSilver
Rock Star
Silver Level
So I am trying to improve my sit and go performance just that little bit more to try and boost my profits and am trying to get as close to perfect icm bubble play as I can. Yet something has popped up that I am currently debating in my own head and am not sure on.
in secret of sit and goes by phil shaw chapter 6 icm considerations for bubble play Phil shaw gives an example of a ten handed sit and go with four players left of exact equal stats and works out that you need to be +65.22% to call an all in.
well if we look at some charts from odds and probabilities by Matthew Hilger we see that 88=69% win rate against a random hand and 77 has a 66% win rate meanwhile ak off suit has 65% against a random hand.
this technically means in the given situation from Phil shaws book that Ak is a marginal fold whilst 77 is a marginal call.
obviously this seems wrong to me suffice to say I think theres slightly more to it as AK has its advantage over a lot of hands and gets into trouble against very few, whilst 77 is a coin toss against a much larger range of hands and can be in trouble when dominated.
Long story short I am not folding Ak on the bubble but might fold 77, However if chips=cash which they do and were talking raw odds here doesn't it mean we should be obeying exact icm math?
so is that situation really a fold with AK off suit and a call with 77?
in secret of sit and goes by phil shaw chapter 6 icm considerations for bubble play Phil shaw gives an example of a ten handed sit and go with four players left of exact equal stats and works out that you need to be +65.22% to call an all in.
well if we look at some charts from odds and probabilities by Matthew Hilger we see that 88=69% win rate against a random hand and 77 has a 66% win rate meanwhile ak off suit has 65% against a random hand.
this technically means in the given situation from Phil shaws book that Ak is a marginal fold whilst 77 is a marginal call.
obviously this seems wrong to me suffice to say I think theres slightly more to it as AK has its advantage over a lot of hands and gets into trouble against very few, whilst 77 is a coin toss against a much larger range of hands and can be in trouble when dominated.
Long story short I am not folding Ak on the bubble but might fold 77, However if chips=cash which they do and were talking raw odds here doesn't it mean we should be obeying exact icm math?
so is that situation really a fold with AK off suit and a call with 77?