ICM at Final Table

During the Final Table one must access the situation and take risks based on stack distribution. Sometimes we must be tighter and let some smaller stacks bust before taking risks with all our chips.

Thanks to modern software we can calculate what hands will make $EV by pushing our stacks in a certain situation.

I came across a situation today that I knew was extremely marginal for a 13BB shove. I ran it through HRC and it says it was a razor-thin shove (+0.03).

Should we pass on these razor-thin edges, or take every edge we have and run with it.

*I left a shot of my HRC settings in case anyone has a different way to run the data

I think it is okay to shove being the first to raise in.

I still don't have ICM down though, so would like to see more input on this topic.

If in this situation were short stacks, I would consider to fold, but being an outsider I would be prone to AI. But it all depends on the situation and reputation at the table, BB same stack, you could make a mini-raise.

Pure maths! Maths is one of the most important factors at poker game. Till now I am not using any software with my game. I prefer to study and gather knowledge. I just keep some files about my game!

I think the problem with those ICM calculations is that they are based on Nash/GTO
assuming that your opponents also call very tight.
The second Aspect is that your opponents also propably shove too wide so it's would be easier for you to ladder by folding even tighter.

depending on reads and sharkscope data I would probably shove even tighter than the ICM chart suggests based on my assumption of they're probably too light calling ranges.

Also you may find ppl arguing exactly the other way around saying opponents are scared and overfold but from my pasts experience i don't find that true

In such situations, the dynamics of the game at the table is very important, whether players with large stacks exert pressure, the difference in prize money, the structure of the tournament. There is no single answer here.

You are the shortest stack so theoretically you don't have ICM considerations here.I agree with mrverceddy, those calculations are based on optimal opponent's response.Opponents calling range here must be the top of their range against an EP open shove,(it would be a tragedy if the big stack loses a big percentage of his stack by calling you). We block some Ax combinations but still we are underdog against any pocket pair pre flop though.

akmost said:

You are the shortest stack so theoretically you don't have ICM considerations here.I agree with mrverceddy, those calculations are based on optimal opponent's response.Opponents calling range here must be the top of their range against an EP open shove,(it would be a tragedy if the big stack loses a big percentage of his stack by calling you). We block some Ax combinations but still we are underdog against any pocket pair pre flop though.

Click to expand...

There is still considerable ICM pressure in this spot which will affect the EV of the shoves and the calling ranges of my opponents.

My stack is technically the shortest stack, I am 6/6 but the stack distribution is very close. If I shove and pick up the 2.5BB pot uncontested then I will be in 3rd place. The difference between me and 3rd place is less then 2bb, which is a significant payjump.

My simulations show the bigger stacks calling from 5-6% of hands (88+,AJs+,AQo+) and the smaller stacks calling with pretty much only the nuts. (TT+,AKo,AQs+), so this is a very tight calling range. It seems even too tight for these players to be honest.

If I expand the larger stacks ranges slightly to include KQs, and 77 (Which is far from unreasonable) it makes my shove go negative.

Furthermore in chipEV mode (No ICM consideration) it shows my shove as massively profitable at 0.83bb.

My original question is theoretical and not based on this exact example hand. I want to know if these small edges are worth utilizing or if we should pass on super-thin spots.

If the game feels superiority over opponents, then you should not put allin. At the final table, I try to assess opponents as correctly as possible and adjust my game to them. The ICM factor is important, but I consider the factor of the non-optimal game of opponents at the table more when making decisions.

Not much in the stack differences here,do we really need some machine to make a decision here,is it wise to have a set rule in this situation.Go with your gut in this situation i would say.Personally i would fold this in a bigger money tournament having lost two good ones with AQ suited to AA but would say its a good push if not close to life changing money,thats what would clench the decision for me.Im guessing you won the hand? lol gl gl.

Icm says that a decision will most often be the right one. Professional players are different from regulchrnyh players so that they apply the right skills at the right time. For them, it is obvious that playing at the final table to take into account icm very important. Many times I heard it in an interview with the professionals on youtube. That's why they win more major tournaments. A regular players often reach the maximum of the final table.

I think the primary consideration in evaluating what you describe as a super thing +ev is deciding what your real goal is. Are you hoping to survive one, maybe two pay jumps or, are you trying to make the bigger payouts at 1st or 2nd? If you are happy with making a jump or two then fold and continue to survive. But, if the bigger prize is the goal then I think you play those thin spots for all their worth.

If you look at the percentage of chances to win, this is a very dubious all-in (roulette game). And knowing the game of other players (they play quite aggressively) and considering that this is the final table, I would just throw this hand !!! There are 2 players at the table with about the same number of chips as yours, so I think it makes sense to wait for their mistakes or the best hand !!!

At the table there are a large number of players with short stacks. In our situation, everything is more complicated, because players play a huge role in the fact that we have tremendous pressure.When you find yourself in a slightly favorable situation in terms of equity, but not in a completely favorable situation in terms of ICM. If the pajamps are significant, and you can catch one of them, then you better avoid situations in which the variance will become high. Work with ICMIZER to see how call ranges change dramatically under the influence of ICM pressure

Good question. I have read in several places that if you are better than the other players to forget the small edges but that if the other are the same or better in skill , use any edge you get. .03 isn't much, but its not negative. As for ATo , and your first in, I would think that it is a fist pump shove, as a short stack. Don't forget that you have fold equity, and that as the other stacks are kinds close, you could cripple them. Just my 2 cents. LOL